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10
Decision Support Systems
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Learning Objectives
Identify the changes taking place in the form
and use of decision support in business
Identify the role and reporting alternatives
of management information systems
Describe how online analytical processing
can meet key information needs of managers
Learning Objectives
Explain how the following information systems
can support the information needs of executives,
managers, and business professionals
Executive information systems
Enterprise information portals
Knowledge management systems
Learning Objectives
Give examples of several ways expert systems
can be used in business decision-making
situations
10-4
Potential problems
Pressure on employees
Divisions in the office
Tendency to hoard information
10-6
10-7
10-8
10-9
Information Quality
Information products made more valuable by
their attributes, characteristics, or qualities
Information that is outdated, inaccurate, or
hard to understand has much less value
10-10
10-11
Decision Structure
Structured (operational)
The procedures to follow when decision
is needed can be specified in advance
Unstructured (strategic)
It is not possible to specify in advance
most of the decision procedures to follow
Semi-structured (tactical)
Decision procedures can be pre-specified,
but not enough to lead to the correct decision
10-12
Management Information
Systems
Decision Support
Systems
Decision
support
provided
Information
form and
frequency
Periodic, exception,
demand, and push reports
and responses
Information
format
Information produced by
extraction and manipulation
of business data
Information produced by
analytical modeling of
business data
Information
processing
methodology
10-13
10-14
10-15
Analytical models
Specialized databases
A decision-makers own insights and judgments
An interactive, computer-based modeling process
DSS Components
10-17
Spreadsheet Examples
Linear programming
Multiple regression forecasting
Capital budgeting present value
10-18
10-19
10-20
Exception Reports
Reports about exceptional conditions
May be produced regularly or when an
exception occurs
Push Reporting
Information is pushed to a networked computer
10-21
10-22
10-23
Drill-Down
Display underlying detail data
Example: sales figures by individual product
OLAP Configuration
10-25
10-26
10-27
DVS Example
10-28
What-If Analysis
Observing how changes to selected variables
affect other variables
10-29
Goal-seeking Analysis
Making repeated changes to selected variables
until a chosen variable reaches a target value
Optimization Analysis
Finding an optimum value for selected variables,
given certain constraints
10-30
Data Mining
Provides decision support through knowledge
discovery
Analyzes vast stores of historical business data
Looks for patterns, trends, and correlations
Goal is to improve business performance
Types of analysis
Regression
Decision tree
Neural network
Cluster detection
Market basket analysis
10-31
10-32
Market products
Place merchandise in the store
Lay out catalogs and order forms
Determine what new products to offer
Customize solicitation phone calls
10-33
10-34
Features of an EIS
Information presented in forms tailored to the
preferences of the executives using the system
Customizable graphical user interfaces
Exception reports
Trend analysis
Drill down capability
10-35
Dashboard Example
10-37
10-38
10-39
Common users of AI
Transportation industry
Hotels
Investment firms and lenders
10-41
10-42
10-43
Computer science
Biology
Psychology
Linguistics
Mathematics
Engineering
10-45
10-46
10-47
Cognitive Science
Applications in the cognitive science of AI
Expert systems
Knowledge-based systems
Adaptive learning systems
Fuzzy logic systems
Neural networks
Genetic algorithm software
Intelligent agents
Robotics
AI, engineering, and physiology are the basic
disciplines of robotics
Produces robot machines with computer
intelligence and humanlike physical capabilities
Natural Interfaces
Major thrusts in the area of AI and the
development of natural interfaces
Natural languages
Speech recognition
Virtual reality
Linguistics
Psychology
Computer science
Other disciplines
10-50
Information Retrieval
Distills tidal waves of information into simple
presentations
Natural language technology
Database mining
10-51
Robotics
Machine-vision inspections systems
Cutting-edge robotics systems
From micro robots and hands and legs, to cognitive
and trainable modular vision systems
10-52
Expert Systems
An Expert System (ES)
A knowledge-based information system
Contain knowledge about a specific, complex
application area
Acts as an expert consultant to end users
10-53
Software Resources
An inference engine processes the knowledge
and recommends a course of action
User interface programs communicate with
the end user
Explanation programs explain the reasoning
process to the end user
10-54
10-55
Frame-Based
Knowledge organized in a hierarchy or
network of frames
A frame is a collection of knowledge about
an entity, consisting of a complex package
of data values describing its attributes
10-56
Rule-Based
Knowledge represented in the form of rules
and statements of fact
Rules are statements that typically take the
form of a premise and a conclusion (If, Then)
10-57
Diagnostic/Troubleshooting
Equipment calibration
Help desk operations
Medical diagnosis
Software debugging
10-58
Selection/Classification
Material selection
Delinquent account identification
Information classification
Suspect identification
Process Monitoring/Control
10-59
10-60
10-61
Limited focus
Inability to learn
Maintenance problems
Development cost
Can only solve specific types of problems
in a limited domain of knowledge
10-62
10-63
10-64
Development Tool
Expert System Shell
The easiest way to develop an expert system
A software package consisting of an expert
system without its knowledge base
Has an inference engine and user interface
programs
10-65
Knowledge Engineering
A knowledge engineer
Works with experts to capture the knowledge
(facts and rules of thumb) they possess
Builds the knowledge base, and if necessary,
the rest of the expert system
Performs a role similar to that of systems
analysts in conventional information systems
development
10-66
Neural Networks
Computing systems modeled after the brains
mesh-like network of interconnected processing
elements (neurons)
Interconnected processors operate in parallel
and interact with each other
Allows the network to learn from the data it
processes
10-67
Fuzzy Logic
Fuzzy logic
Resembles human reasoning
Allows for approximate values and
inferences and incomplete or ambiguous data
Uses terms such as very high instead of
precise measures
Used more often in Japan than in the U.S.
Used in fuzzy process controllers used in
subway trains, elevators, and cars
10-68
10-69
Genetic Algorithms
Genetic algorithm software
Uses Darwinian, randomizing, and other
mathematical functions
Simulates an evolutionary process, yielding
increasingly better solutions to a problem
Being uses to model a variety of scientific,
technical, and business processes
Especially useful for situations in which
thousands of solutions are possible
10-70
10-71
Typical VR Applications
Current applications of virtual reality
Computer-aided design
Medical diagnostics and treatment
Scientific experimentation
Flight simulation
Product demonstrations
Employee training
Entertainment
10-72
Intelligent Agents
A software surrogate for an end user or a
process that fulfills a stated need or activity
Uses built-in and learned knowledge base
to make decisions and accomplish tasks in
a way that fulfills the intentions of a user
Also call software robots or bots
10-73
10-76
10-77
10-78
10-79
10-80
10-81