UNIT-4

Modeling and prediction of performance

By Pradeep Chaudhari.
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UNIT-4
Modeling and prediction of performance
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
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Setting up a computing model to predict performance of

experimental system,
Multi-scale modeling and verifying performance of process
system,
Nonlinear analysis of system.
asymptotic analysis
Verifying if assumptions hold true for a given apparatus setup,
Plotting family of performance curves to study trends and
tendencies,
Sensitivity theory and applications.

INTRODUCTION
This chapter is an introduction to process dynamics and control for

those who have had little or no contact or experience with real

research processes.
The objective is to illustrate where process control fits into the picture
and to indicate its relative importance in the operation, design, and
development of research work.
Accurately modeling and predicting performance for large-scale
applications becomes increasingly difficult as system complexity scales
dramatically.
Analytic predictive models are useful, but are difficult to construct,
usually limited in scope, and often fail to capture subtle interactions
between architecture and software. In contrast, we employ multilayer
neural networks trained on input data from executions on the target
platform. This approach is useful for predicting many aspects of
performance, and it captures full system complexity. Our models are
developed automatically from the training input set, avoiding the
difficult and potentially error-prone process required to develop
analytic models.
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Recently present computing devices are increasing requirements of high-level

performance management automation.

Therefore a system management is changing from a conventional central
administration to autonomic computing.
Many research centers are conducting various studies on self-healing method.
However, most existing research focuses on healing after a system error has
already occurred.
In order to solve this problem, a prediction model is required to recognize
operating environments and predict error occurrence.
To predict the performance of system, hybrid prediction model is used.
This hybrid prediction models adopts a selective healing model according to
system context, for self-diagnosis and prediction of errors when using the four
algorithms.
we can evaluate the prediction time of the hybrid prediction model prototype &
the performance of the target systems workload. In addition, the prediction is
compared with existing research and the effectiveness is demonstrated by
experiment.
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 Multi scale modeling having major impact in computational

science and applied mathematics.

Multi scale problems have long been studied in
mathematics, but now is used to solve problems in applied
science, material science, chemistry, fluid dynamics, and
biology.
nano-science being a good examplefor multi scale
modeling techniques.
There is need of multi scale modeling over Modeling at the
level of a single scale (molecular dynamics or continuum
theory) to solve complex problems in science and
technology.
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Non linear Analysis

Nonlinear models arise for most real systems & there

presence in one form to another is generally the rule.

The source for nonlinearity in structural or mechanical
system may be geometric, inertial, material in nature.
In mechanical system interacting with surroundings, forces
can arise due to interacting media /field (environment),
resulting in Nonlinear phenomenon.
Ex. Buckling in Structures, Rattle & squeak in automobile
system.
The nonlinear response is usually ordinary or partial
differential equation, that depends on external excitation/
parameters.

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Asymptotic Analysis
To compare two algorithms with running times f(n) and g(n), we need a rough measure that
characterizes how fast each function grows.
Compare functions in the limit, that is, asymptotically!

Rate of Growth: Consider the example of buying elephants and goldfish:

Cost: cost_of_elephants + cost_of_goldfish
Cost ~ cost_of_elephants (approximation)
The low order terms in a function are relatively insignificant for large n
n4 + 100n2 + 10n + 50 ~ n4
i.e., we say that n4 + 100n2 + 10n + 50 and n4 have the same rate of growth
Asymptotic Notation: O notation: asymptotic less than:

f(n)=O(g(n)) implies: f(n) g(n)

notation: asymptotic greater than:

notation: asymptotic equality:

f(n) = (f(n))
Same for O and

Symmetry:

f(n) = (g(n)) and g(n) = (h(n)) f(n) = (h(n))

Same for O and

Reflexivity:

f(n)= (g(n)) implies: f(n) = g(n)

Theorem:
f(n) = (g(n)) f = O(g(n)) and f = (g(n))
Transitivity:

f(n)= (g(n)) implies: f(n) g(n)

f(n) = (g(n)) if and only if g(n) = (f(n))

Transpose symmetry:

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f(n) = O(g(n)) if and only if g(n) = (f(n))

Sensitivity theory and applications.

Sensitivity analysis (SA) is the study of how the variation in the

output of a model (numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned,

qualitatively or quantitatively, to different sources of variation
Sensitivity analysis helps to build confidence in the model by studying
the uncertainties that are often associated with parameters in models.
Many parameters in system dynamics models represent quantities that
are very difficult, or even impossible to measure to a great deal of
accuracy in the real world. Also, some parameter values change in the
real world. Therefore, when building a system dynamics model, the
modeler is usually at least somewhat uncertain about the parameter
values he chooses and must use estimates. Sensitivity analysis allows
him to determine what level of accuracy is necessary for a parameter to
make the model sufficiently useful and valid.
Sensitivity tests help the modeler to understand dynamics of a system.
Applications
Sensitivity Analysis can be used to determine:
1. The model resemblance with the process under study
2. The quality of model definition

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Sensitivity theory applications.

Applications

Sensitivity Analysis can be used to determine:

1. The model resemblance with the process under study
2. The quality of model definition
3. Factors that mostly contribute to the output variability
4. The region in the space of input factors for which the
model variation is maximum
5. Optimal -or instability -regions within the space of
factors for use in a subsequent calibration study
6. Interactions between factors
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THANK YOU

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