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Population
a population is the group of all items of interest to a
statistics practitioner.
frequently very large; sometimes infinite.
E.g. All 5 million Florida voters, per Example 12.5
Sample
A sample is a set of data drawn from the population.
Potentially very large, but less than the population.
E.g. a sample of 765 voters exit polled on election day.
Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
9.1
9.2
9.3
Chapter 9
Sampling Distributions
9.4
9.5
Remember
Parameters describe populations
Parameters are almost always unknown
We take a random sample of a population to obtain the
necessary data
We calculate one or more statistics from the sample
data
9.6
= sample mean
Parameters
m = population mean
s2 = sample variance
s2 = population variance
s = sample standard
deviation
s = population standard
deviation
9.7
2.
3.
9.8
9.9
Simulation
We will first simulate a number of samples, n, of a
certain size. We will then find the mean of each of
the samples. Then we will talk about the
distributions of these means. We will also make a
histogram to graphically illustrate the distribution.
9.10
9.11
Histogram Example #1
Suppose we examine the scores on the first test for
students in MAT 213 from past semesters.
Clearly this is quantitative data, and as such, a histogram
of the scores is appropriate.
Using Minitab, the following histogram was produced.
Notice the bars are equal width, the heights of the bars
give the number of scores in each interval, etc.
9.12
Frequency
15
10
20
40
60
Test1
80
100
9.13
9.14
9.15
9.16
9.17
1/6
1/6
1/6
1/6
1/6
1/6
9.18
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
2,1
2,2
2,3
2,4
2,5
2,6
Mean Sample
Mean
1
13
3,1
2
1.5
14
3,2
2.5
2
15
3,3
3
2.5
16
3,4
3.5
3
17
3,5
4
3.5
18
3,6
4.5
1.5
19
4,1
2.5
2
20
4,2
3
2.5
21
4,3
3.5
3
22
4,4
4
3.5
23
4,5
4.5
4
24
4,6
5
Sample
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Mean
5,1
5,2
5,3
5,4
5,5
5,6
6,1
6,2
6,3
6,4
6,5
6,6
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
9.19
9.20
5/36
6/36
4/36
P(
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
P( )
3/36
is shown below:
2/36
1/36
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
9.21
Compare
Compare the distribution of X
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
9.22
Generalize
We can generalize the mean and variance of the sampling of
two dice:
to n-dice:
The standard deviation of the
sampling distribution is
called the standard error:
9.23
9.24
n 10
n 25
m x 3.5
m x 3.5
m x 3.5
s2x
s .5833 ( )
5 6
s2x
2
s x .2917 ( )
10
s2x
s .1167 ( )
25
2
x
2
x
9.25
9.26
2.
3. If X is normal, X is normal. If X is nonnormal, X is
approximately normal for sufficiently large sample sizes.
Note: the definition of sufficiently large depends on the
extent of nonnormality of x (e.g. heavily skewed;
multimodal)
9.27
Population
1.5
2.5
22
3
1.5
2.5
22
1.5
2.5
1.5
2
2.5
1.5
2.5
2
Compare
the variability
of the population
1.5
2.5
1.5
22 of the2.5
to the variability
sample mean.
1.5
2.5
1.5
2.5
2
1.5
2.5
1.5
2
2.5
1.5
2
2.5
1.5
2
2.5
1
9.28
9.29
Example 9.1(a)
The foreman of a bottling plant has observed that the amount
of soda in each 32-ounce bottle is actually a normally
distributed random variable, with a mean of 32.2 ounces and
a standard deviation of .3 ounce.
If a customer buys one bottle, what is the probability that the
bottle will contain more than 32 ounces?
9.30
x m 32 32.2
)
sx
.3
0.7486
P( z .67) 0.7486
x = 32 m = 32.2
Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
9.31
Example 9.1(a)
We want to find P(X > 32), where X is normally distributed
and =32.2 and =.3
9.32
Example 9.1(b)
The foreman of a bottling plant has observed that the amount
of soda in each 32-ounce bottle is actually a normally
distributed random variable, with a mean of 32.2 ounces and
a standard deviation of .3 ounce.
If a customer buys a carton of four bottles, what is the
probability that the mean amount of the four bottles will be
greater than 32 ounces?
9.33
x m 32 32.2
)
sx
.3 4
P( z 1.33) 0.9082
0.9082
0.7486
x = 32
x 32 m = 32.2
m 32.2
9.34
Example 9.1(b)
We want to find P(X > 32), where X is normally distributed
with =32.2 and =.3
Things we know:
1) X is normally distributed, therefore so will X.
2)
= 32.2 oz.
3)
9.35
Example 9.1(b)
If a customer buys a carton of four bottles, what is the
probability that the mean amount of the four bottles will be
greater than 32 ounces?
9.36
Graphically Speaking
mean=32.2
9.37
0.3
sX
0.15
n
4
9.38
Chapter-Opening Example
The dean of the School of Business claims that the average
salary of the schools graduates one year after graduation is
$800 per week with a standard deviation of $100. A secondyear student would like to check whether the claim about the
mean is correct. He does a survey of 25 people who
graduated one year ago and determines their weekly salary.
He discovers the sample mean to be $750. To interpret his
finding he needs to calculate the probability that a sample of
25 graduates would have a mean of $750 or less when the
population mean is $800 and the standard deviation is $100.
9.39
Chapter-Opening Example
We want to compute
P(X 750)
Although X is likely skewed it is likely that
is normally distributed. The mean of X is
m x m 800
The standard deviation is
s x s / n 100 / 25 20
9.40
Chapter-Opening Example
X m x 750 800
P( X 750) P
s
20
x
9.41
9.42
X m
s/ n
9.43
s
s
.95
P m 1.96
X m 1.96
n
n
Similarly
s
s
.90
P m 1.645
X m 1.645
n
n
In general
s
s
1
P m z / 2
X m z / 2
n
n
X,
9.44
= .05, we get
s
s
1 .05
P m z .025
X m z .025
n
n
100
100
.95
P 800 1.96
X 800 1.96
25
25
This is another way of checking the deans claim. The probability that
X falls between 760.8 and 839.2 is 95%. It is unlikely that we
would observe a sample mean as low as $750 when the population
mean is $800.
Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
9.45
sX
9.46
Continued
Calculate the z-scores corresponding to the appropriate values of x
bar using the formula
z
X mX
sX
Use Table 1 to find the area under the normal curve corresponding
to each calculated z score.
Using the curve sketched in Step 3, find the probability of interest
by adding or subtracting the appropriate areas.
9.47
9.48
9.49
9.50
Hence:
and
Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
9.51
9.52
9.53
9.54
9.55
with
, follow pthese steps:
9.56
Step 1
9.57
Step 2
m p
p (1 p )
n
9.58
Step 3
9.59
Step 4
9.60
Step 5
p p
p
Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
9.61
Step 6
Use table to find the area under the normal curve
corresponding to each calculated z-score.
9.62
Step 7
With the help of the curve sketched in Step 4, find the
probability of interest by adding or subtracting
appropriate areas.
9.63
Example 9.3
A state representative received 52% of the votes
in the last election.
One year later the representative wanted to study
his popularity.
If his popularity has not changed, what is the
probability that more than half of a sample of
300 voters would vote for him?
9.64
Sampling Distribution
Example 9.3
p = .50
p (1 p )
.0288
n
9.65
Example 9.3
Solution for the probability:
p
.
50
.
52
.7549
P( p .50) P
p(1 p) n
(.
52
)(
1
.
52
)
300
9.66
m p
2. s
p
p (1 p )
n
>5
9.67
Part 3
Finding probabilities when is unknown
9.68
9.69
9.70
The t - Statistic
t
The t distribution is mound-shaped,
and symmetrical around zero.
d.f. = v2
v1 < v2
d.f. = v1
x m
s n
The degrees of freedom,
(a function of the sample size)
determine how spread the
distribution is (compared to the
normal distribution)
9.71
Inference About
with
Unknown
9.72
Degrees of freedom
I want to find 3 numbers that add up to 10.
If I choose 2 and 5 for the first two, what is the
third?
If I choose 4 and -6 for the first two, what is the
third?
Once I have designated two of the numbers, the third
is fixed, that is, there is no choice if the original
condition is to be met (sum = 10)
In this case we have 2 degrees of freedom.
9.73
Degrees of Freedom
If I want 4 numbers that add up to 20, how many
degrees of freedom do I have?
If I want 2 numbers that add up to 15, how many
degrees of freedom do I have?
If I want 5 numbers that add up to 16, how many
degrees of freedom do I have?
9.74
The t-distribution
Properties of the t-distribution:
1. It is symmetric and mound-shaped but it is not a
normal distribution.
2. The mean value (its center) is zero.
3. The t-distribution has n 1 degrees of freedom,
written df = n 1.
4.
df
df 2
Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
9.75
Example 12.1
Will new workers achieve 90% of the level of experienced
workers within one week of being hired and trained?
Experienced workers can process 500 packages/hour, thus if
our conjecture is correct, we expect new workers to be
able to process .90(500) = 450 packages per hour.
Given the data, is this the case?
9.76
Example 12.1
COMPUTE
9.77
Example 12.1
From the data, we calculate
COMPUTE
9.78
9.79
Example 12.1
Since t = 1.89, and we have 49 degrees of freedom, we go to
row 49, and then over to 1.9 for the calculated value of t.
This gives us 0.0317. This is the area under the curve.
NOTICE the shaded region on the top of the table. The
numbers in the table are the right tail of the distribution.
So the probability of getting the value gotten from the
experiment (in this case 460.38)or a higher value, if the
true mean is 450 is 0.0317 or 3.17%.
9.80
Example 12.1
COMPUTE
:
:
Copyright 2005 Brooks/Cole, a division of Thomson Learning, Inc.
9.81
Example 12.1
COMPUTE
9.82
Simulations
We can simulate the sampling distribution of z.
9.83
Sampling Distribution of z
In summary,
The shape of the sampling distribution of z is normal if the
population is normal, or n > 30.
mz 0
s z 1
9.84
mt 0
df
df 2
The t-distribution has n 1 degrees of freedom,
written df = n 1.
9.85
9.86
Summary
Statistic
Shape
Mean
Normal if
Population is normal
OR n > 30
mx m
Normal if
Population is normal
OR n > 30
m p p
mz 0
mt 0
Standard Deviation
sx
s
n
s p p(1 p) / n
s z 1
st
df
df 2
9.87