'Urban growth:

Contemporary challenges
Anumita Roychowdhury
Centre for Science and
Environment
New Delhi,
April 10, 2007

Unprecedented urban growth:

A global challenge

1950-2006: The urban population of the world has increased

from 739 million to 3.2 billion. By 2025 around 65 per cent of
the worlds population is projected to live in cities. By 2010
more than 75 per cent of the worlds urban population will
live in poorer countries (State of the World 2007).
More than 40 per cent of the world children are estimated to
be living in polluted cities of developing world (WHO).
A billion more will be added over the next three decades in
Asia almost adding a whole new India. More than half of
them will be living in cities
What about India?

Huge numbers . But sluggish

trends
The classical view: Agrarian crisis accelerates urban growth leads to
exodus from villages. Exponential annual growth rate in urban
population during 1940s, 50s and 70s
But growth rate drops thereafter from 3.8% in the 70s to 2.7% in 90s.
Share of urban population increased slowly from 17.3%in 1951 to
27.78% in 2001.
Overall mobility of migrants stagnates. 2001: Share of total migrants in
the country has increased slightly from 27% to 29% during the 90s
but this is less than 31% in 1961.
The share of migrants in the total incremental urban population
dropped from 21.7% in 80s to 21.0% in the 90s. This co-relates
well with drop in the rate of urbanisation during the nineties.
The total urban population is still as big as 287.56 million which
is almost equal to the total population of the United States.
The trend may accelerate. Urban population may double by 2021

Problem of skewed growth

Top heavy growth: Class I are growing faster than the smaller
cities growth is not evenly distributed. Only large cities have
integrated effectively with markets. Attracted more migrants.
Asymmetrical growth: Total towns have increased from 1827 in
1901 to 4368 in 2001. Million plus cities have increased from 24
in 1901 to 393 in 2001. Share of urban population in these
cities have increased from 26% in 1901 to 69% in 2001. The
remaining 30% are distributed in the remaining 3979 towns and
cities.
Stagnation at the bottom: The transformation of rural settlement
as urban centres is not so pronounced. Lower rung towns
largely stagnating. Some have grown due to infrastructure
investments and rural to urban migration.
Shadow growth: Top rung cities have grown due to in-migration
and aerial expansion. Strong influence on suburbanisation.

Concerns
Skewed growth leads to inequity, and serious social and
environmental imbalances
Big cities have not been able to absorb labor and investments
within the formal sector of economy leading to problem of
slums and informal economy. 21% of urban population live
in slums. Nearly 40-50 per cent of people live in slums of
Mumbai.
About 25.7% of the urban population live below the poverty line.
While in class I cities 12 per cent of the households are
below poverty line, in medium towns it is 23% -- even higher
than rural areas.
Urban planning has tried density control through physical
planning but failed to check in-migration or address the
issue of basic services.
Social and environmental impacts of these trends are severe as
there is also high level of inequity in the provision of basic
services in cities. Poor are pushed to periphery.
5

The challenge of mega cities

If cities grow big its scale and density also make waste
treatment, recycling facilities, and public transport more
efficient. But they also exceed their ecological limits. But
efficiency gains are limited in Indian cities due to poor
urban governance.

Growing pollution and toxification:

new struggles in cities
Cities in grip of toxic model of growth: Intensive
use of energy and materials leading to huge
amounts of waste -- pollution.
Major health impacts toxic air causes one
death per hour, dirty water is the biggest killer of
babies till date
Poor and Polluted. Deadly combination.
Where will the future growth take us? It all
depends on the choices we make

How are we going to manage this

growth?
The issue is not about growth but about distribution, equity and
urban governance
Air pollution and mobility crisis: Cities are being built for a small group
of car owners, disregarding the mobility needs of the majority of urban
population. Pollution and congestion costs high.
Solid waste and hazardous waste: 120,000 tonnes of garbage
everyday in Indian cities. But very limited disposal, re-use and
recycling capacities. Waste to energy remains a non-starter.
Colonisation of land for waste disposal is leading to conflicts.
Water and waste water: Per capita water supply ranges from 9 lpcd to
584 lpcd across urban India. Only 72 cities have partial sewerage
facilities and 17 have some primary treatment facilities and ..
Energy crisis: Wide gap in demand and supply, wastage. One third of
India living in cities consumes 87% of nations electricity. Remains
energy inefficient. But heavily built cities like Tokyo and New York use
less energy per capita than rural residents.
Land constraints: Urban sprawl and inefficiencies
8

Air quality: an urban challenge

More than half of the cities monitored have recorded
critical levels of fine particulate matter (PM10)
100%

Number of cities in per cent

90%

30

80%

57

70%
60%
50%

96

40%

70

30%

23

20%
19

10%

0%
SO2
Air Quality
Classification:

NO2

PM10

Critical Pollution Level* (More than 90 microgramme per cubic metre)

High Pollution Level* (60 to 90 microgramme per cubic metre)
Moderate Pollution Level* (30 to 60 microgramme per cubic metre)
Low Pollution Level* (0 to 29 microgramme per cubic metre)

The Gas Chamber: Poor people more

vulnerable to air pollution related diseases
WHO estimates 0.8 million deaths and 4.6 million lost life years every year
globally. Two-third of this occurs in Asia.

Premature Deaths Due to Outdoor Air Pollution

11

Explosive numbers: Trend towards auto

dependent cities
Transport infrastructure occupies significant part of
the urban land

12

Personal vehicles increasing

phenomenally
Between 2001-02 and 2005-06, car sales increased by 73%, two
wheelers by 68% in India
Private vehicles dominate the registered vehicle fleet
4

Exponential increase in
personal vehicles: Cars in Delhi

Numbers in million

record decennial growth rate of 92 per cent (199596-2005-06)

3
2
2
1
1

2005-06

2004-05

2003-04

2002-03

2001-02

2000-01

1999-00

1998-99

1997-98

1996-97

1995-96

1994-95

1993-94

1992-93

1991-92

1990-91

Years
Cars/jeeps

Two-wheelers

Other vehicles

Delhis road network has increased three times between 1971 and 2001
but vehicles have increased 16 times. Mad scramble to increase road
capacity, flyovers.
13

Personal vehicles use more road space,

pollute more, meet less travel demand
40

45
40
35
30

Average number of
passengers per vehicle

25
20

Pollution load in
gramme/passenger km

Two-stroke two- Four-stroke

wheeler
four-wheeler

Car with
catalytic
converter petrol

0.075

0.25

0.93

4.76

0.375

10

0.375

7.13

15

Congestion effect in
PCU* per passenger

Diesel bus

Note: * one car is equal to one PCU, 1 bus = 2.5 PCU, 1 scooter = 0.75 PCU
Source: Anon 2003, Draft urban transport policy, Ministry of Urban Development, Delhi

14

Cars lead to most inequitous use of urban

land
Cities are being built for urban minority

Parking is one of the most wasteful uses of cars: Out of 8760

hours in a year the total steering time of an average car is 400
hours. For about 90 to 95 per cent of the time a car is parked.

Insatiable demand for land: If demand for land for an average

car is computed on the basis of the average size of the car and
one parking space per car -- the total cars already uses up 3% of
the citys urbanised area; or 10.8% extra land available for
urbanisation. The forest cover in Delhi is 11.5 %.

Inequitous use of land: A car is allotted 23 sq m for parking.

Under low cost housing scheme. The car owning minority using
up more and more road space and urban space.
Land is limited. Where will cities find more land to park cars?
15

Cars encourage urban sprawl

The Gurgaon cataclysm
Development and density controls also encourage move
towards suburbs. Eg. Satellite towns around Delhi, Mumbai
suburbs etc.
Uncontrolled suburbanisation: Gurgaon, 32 kilometer from
Delhi: 1961: 37868 population. 2001: 1.66 million. Car
dependent city -- unfettered growth despite severe water
constraints. 70% of water demand met from ground water.
Alarming drop in ground water level. No land for solid waste
disposal.
Satellite townships have created 3.42 million daily trips -- of
these 37 per cent of the trips are made from Delhi to NCR, 42
per cent from NCR to Delhi and the rest of the trips occur in
NCR but outside Delhi add to pollution and congestion.16

How to assert importance of community,

environmental and economic
responsibilities in cities?
Buses meet
substantial travel
demand in Delhi

Yet buses bear significantly

higher tax burden in India. Tax
correction can push a large
number of two wheeler users
to buses
Poor people spend higher
share of income on travelling

17

Cities, cars and energy insecurity

Transport energy demand has grown at 1.2 times the GDP
growth rate.
Transport sector is single largest user of oil and oil products
30 per cent of total consumption.
Personal transport uses almost all of petrol. Road transport
as a whole consumes more than 62 per cent of diesel.
ADB estimates; In India, consumption of fuels by vehicles in
2035 could be six times that of the 2005 level.
Urban car travel consumes nearly twice as energy on
average as average urban bus travel; 3.7 times more than
the typical light rail or tram; 6.6 times more than average
electric urban electric train

Are we losing advantage?

Share of bigger cars increasing
Small and medium cars will remain dominant. But
Shift towards high end cars expected at a faster rate.
SUV market is expected to develop rapidly in future

19

Strike at the very root.

Restrain personal vehicle usage.
Build public transport
International Energy Agency estimates 100 per cent
difference in oil use in a future scenario dominated by high
quality bus system as opposed to that dominated by
personal vehicles in Delhi
ADB study projects that in Bangalore an increase in public
transport share from 62 per cent to 80 per cent can save 21
per cent of fuel consumption.
20

Poor mobility management

By 2021 there will be a shortfall of nine million trips
per day

21

Cities must be built on public transport

22

Urban crisis and urban protest

Public campaigns

23

Targeting the Legislators

24

December 2002 -- Battle won:

CNG programme established
The current tally:

10,600 buses

52,623 Three-wheelers

10,350 private cars

4,497 mini buses

5,043 taxis

5,909 light commercial vehicles

689 Other commercial vehicles

25

Building public opinion

The message: Leapfrog

Avoid the polluting pathways of the West.
Adopt an alternative path that is precautionary and preventive

Business As Usual

Pollution

Alternative Path Of
Progress

The Kuznets Curve

Per-Capita GDP

27

Thank You

28