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Counterterrorism
in the 21st Century
Agenda
1.
2.
3.
4.
Notes:
- This presentation is entirely at the unclassified level.
- The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the
position of the United States Military Academy, the Department of the Army, or the
Department of Defense.
Sun Tzu
Know yourself
Know your allies
Know your enemy
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Terrorism as Strategy
Terrorism is not new
Terrorism is not merely religious: 1980 Bologna, Munich
attacks; LTTE (Sri Lanka)
Terrorism as weapon in a strategy
Terrorist attacks as a form
of strategic communication
armed attacks
arson
assassination
bombing
hijacking
hostage-taking
kidnapping, etc.
Suicide bombings
Terrorism as Strategy
Terrorism as means to achieve goals and objectives
Strategic goals include:
241 Dead
105 Injured
19 Dead
240 Injured
6 Dead
1,042 Injured
168 Dead
490 Injured
Some religious motivation,
but different religion
Same tactics (ammonium
nitrate truck bomb) as 1993
WTC attack
17 Dead
39 Injured
Terrorism as Strategy
Increasing interest in soft targets (economically strategic
impact, and less protected) such as:
and, of course . . .
2,973 Dead
10,000+ Injured
Karachi, Pakistan
May 8, 2002
Bus attack
14 Dead, including
11 French engineers
12 Dead
50 Injured
Bali, Indonesia
October 12, 2002
202 Dead
350 Injured
Citizens from 21 countries, mostly Western tourists, were killed in the blasts
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Casablanca,
Morocco
May 17, 2003
44 Dead
107 Injured
Jakarta, Indonesia
August 5, 2003
12 Dead
60 Injured
Attack on Security
Services Headquarters
4 Dead
148 Injured
17 Dead
122 Injured
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Istanbul, Turkey
November 20, 2003
27 Dead
400 Injured
Madrid, Spain
March 11, 2004
191 Dead
1,035 Injured
Jakarta, Indonesia
September 9, 2004
9 Dead
173 Injured
London, UK
July 7, 2005
54 Dead
716 Injured
weapons procurement
financier (funder or banker) (particularly in Halawa system)
document forgerer
human traffickers
Different members
of the network
play support and
action roles
Afghanistan
Algeria
Bosnia
Chechnya
Colombia
Egypt
Indonesia
Japan
Kashmir
Lebanon
Libya
Northern Ireland
Peru
The Philippines
Somalia
Spain
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Syria
Turkey
United States
Uzbekistan
Displacement of responsibility
Disregard for/distortion of consequences
Dehumanization
Moral justification
sniper rifle skills; how to fine-tune a rifle sight at short range to ensure
accuracy at longer distances
how to direct weapon fire at targets on the ground and in the air
Example of Tactics:
Ammonium Nitrate
March 30, 2004: More than half a ton of ammonium nitrate fertilizer is found
in a lock-up in West London. Eight British citizens, one American and one
Canadian were arrested on suspicion of being involved in the commission,
preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism.
Reality
Young
Single
Male
Uneducated
Religious fanatics
Preteen - mid-sixties
Both single and married with families
Both male and female
Both educated and uneducated
Not motivated by religious fanaticism
Worlds leader in suicide terror are
Hindu; Tamil Tigers who are
conducting insurgency against Sri
Lanka
Reality
Well planned
Logical
Designed to achieve specific political
objectives
Understanding
Counterterrorism
Military
Intelligence
Diplomacy
Legal
Information
Financial
Economic
Local Enterprises
Robbery
Blackmail & Ransom
Tax on Liquor
Drug s/ Crime
Investing/ running Local
Business Ventures
Fund raising Projects
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Taxes on Goods
INTERNATIONAL FUNDING
Terrorist training
Credit card Fraud
Foreign Investments/Business
Shipping/Gunrunning
Human
Trafficking
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Drug Smuggling
US Counterterrorism Strategy
Helped Sri Lankan military develop 4 key
capabilities
The L in MIDLIFE
Legal/Law Enforcement
Rule of law is vital, both domestically and
internationally
The primary intelligence gatherers and first
responders are local law enforcement officers
Help countries develop their law enforcement
capabilities and legal institutions
Must conduct CT within ethical and legal
frameworks, to avoid exacerbating existing
grievances
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
(DIMEFIL dimensions: Diplomacy, Intelligence, Economic, Financial, Information, Legal, and in the
most extreme cases, Military)
Introduction
I.
Overview of America's International Strategy
II.
Champion Aspirations for Human Dignity
III.
Strengthen Alliances to Defeat Global Terrorism and Work
to Prevent Attacks Against Us and Our Friends
IV.
Work with Others to Defuse Regional Conflicts
V.
Prevent Our Enemies from Threatening Us, Our Allies, and
Our Friends with Weapons of Mass Destruction
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
Overall Goal: Preserve and promote the way of life of free and open societies
based on the rule of law, defeat terrorist extremism as a threat to that way of life, and
create a global environment inhospitable to terrorist extremists.
Ideological support
Comms & Movement
Protect the
Homeland
Ways
Funds
Safe havens
Enemy
Leadership
Weapons
Foot soldiers
Access to Targets
Counter Ideological
Support for Terrorism
COMBATING TERRORISM
CENTER
National,
partner and international instruments of power
Means
at West Point
UNCLASSIFIED
Ends
Strategic Goal: Preserve and promote the way of life of free and open societies based on the
rule of law, defeat terrorist extremism as a threat to our way of life, and create a global
environment inhospitable to terrorist extremists.
END-STATE
Ideological support
Comms & Movement
Ways
Protect the
Homeland
Funds
Safe havens
Enemy
Leadership
Weapons
Foot soldiers
Access to Targets
Counter Ideological
Support for Terrorism
Counterterrorism Strategy
Our strategy must involve denying terrorists sanctuary;
separating terrorists from the population
Must isolate them, take away their support, force them to
continually be on the run
Organizing for force protection based on battle line
mentality wont work
UAVs arent as useful as you might think; over-reliance
on technical wizardry has been a problem in the field
Attrition we must keep after them, never give up, while
making sure they dont recruit new members
Counterterrorism Strategy
Human intelligence networks are critical (although non-efficient
use of manpower)
Must have continual presence cannot go into a village looking
for the terrorists
Focus on the enemys ideology, in addition to their tactics
This is a War of Ideas: We need to convince them (potential
supporters and recruits) that we (liberal democracies) offer a
better way than separatist Islamic Jihad (but without attempting
to convert them to our way of life)
We must work to bolster the image of American morals and
values being compatible with those of the Arab and Islamic world,
where we are too often portrayed as greedy, selfish hedonists
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Counterterrorism Strategy
Evaluate trends and potentials, capabilities and intentions,
and provide an operational net assessment
The contemporary terrorist threat involves a series of
adversaries linked in networks. Combating networks requires
an understanding of networked threats
Must not over-react; terrorist strategy may be to provoke overreaction, leading to further alienation and possible supporters
among populace
Tactical level: thwart an attack, pursue and bring to justice
attack perpetrators
Strategic level: build resilient communities
Counterterrorism Strategy
Information warfare
Coordination Levels
ALLIES
ALLIES
Coalition
OTHER
AGENCIES
DOD
DOS
Interagency
CIA
Joint
Army
Navy
Air Force
Marines
Army
Combined
Arms
COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER
at West Point
Secretary Level
INTEL
Community
Sec of
Home. Sec.
DOHS
VP
POTUS
DOD
W
CO H
S
SE
I
DC
CS
CJ
JCS
Natl Security
Advisor
EF
CD
SE
DOS
CS
TA
TE
NSC Staff
NSC
Conclusion
You must thoroughly know your enemy before you can
successfully defeat him
You cannot address terrorism in isolation
Questions?