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Inputs
3)
Outputs
Trip Generation
II.
Trip Distribution
WHY?
Trip Assignment
Overview of the
Four-Step Model
TRIP GENERATION
Input:
Iterative Process
Output:
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Input:
Process:
Output:
- Gravity Model
-
Trip Interchanges
Examples of HH
socioeconomic data
Iterative Process
MODE CHOICE
Input:
Process:
Trip Interchanges
Output:
Use when LOS is important, transit is a true choice, highways are congested, and parking is limited
TRIP ASSIGNMENT
Input:
Process:
Output:
Preparing for a
Four-Step Model
Before jumping into trip generation,
we first have to set up our project
1)
2)
3)
Regional
Statewide or a large metro area
Used to predict larger patterns of traffic distribution,
growth, and emissions
Corridor
Major facility such as a freeway, arterial, or transit line
Used to evaluate traffic
Site or Project
Proposed development or small scale change
(i.e. intersection improvement)
Used to evaluate traffic impact
Node
Creating Zones
Create Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)
Creating Zones
All modeled trips begin in a zone and
are destined for a zone
Trip Generation
Trip Generation
Using socioeconomic data, we try to estimate
how many trips are produced by each TAZ
For example, we might use linear regression to
estimate that a 2-person, 2-car household with a
total income of $90,000 makes 2 home-based
work trips per day
Using land use data, we estimate how many trips
are attracted to each TAZ
For example, an 3,000 SF office might bring in
12 work trips per day
Trip Generation
The process considers the
total number of trips
Trip Generation
Input: Socioeconomic Data
Land Use Data
1
3
2
5
4
7
Zone 1
Trip MatrixZone 4
or
Trip Table Zone 5
Zone 6
Zone 7
Zone 8
Trip Distribution
Trip Distribution
We link production or origin zones to
attraction destination zones
A trip matrix is produced
TAZ
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Zone 1
Trip Matrix
Trip Interchanges
Decrease with distance between zones
Trip Distribution
Similar to Trip Generation, all the
modes are still lumped together by
purpose (i.e. work, shopping)
Cost of trip
Travel
Time
Actual Costs
Attractiveness
Quantity
of Opportunity
Desirability of Opportunity
Trip Matrix, t
(2008)
Trip Matrix, T
(2018)
Uniform Growth
Factor Model
Tij = tij
= (1.2)(5)
=6
Trip Matrix, T
(2018)
Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Model
Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Method
Similar to the Uniform Growth Factor
Method but constrained in one direction
For example, lets start with our base
matrix, t
attractions, j
productions, i
zones
Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Method
Instead of one uniform growth factor, assume
that we have estimated how many more or less
trips will start from our origins
Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Method
Singly-Constrained
Growth Factor Method
Can also perform the singly-constrained
growth factor method for a destination
specific future trip table
Average Growth
Factor Model
g ( )=
k
Fi
+
2
k
Fj
F = Growth Factor
= Ratio of Target Trips to
Previous Iteration Trips
k = Iteration Number
Collect Inputs
2)
Ti
=
k-1
ti
3)
Compute
Inter-zonal
Flows
k
k-1
k
k
4)
Compute
Trips
Ends
k
k
5)
tij = tij
Fik + Fjk
g ( )=
2
1.41+1.25
1.330=
2
Fratar Method
Growth Factor Model
Fratar Method
k-1
k
t
F
ji
j
k
Replace Step 2 with tij =Ti t k-1F k
iz
z
k
k
t
+
t
ij
ji
k
k
Balance Matrix with Tij =Tji =
2
Fi(1) =
Ti
ti(0)
Future Trips
= Current Trips =
115
55
= 2.09
tizk-1Fzk = (t110)(F11)+(t120)(F21)+(t130)(F31)+(t140)(F41)
=(0)(2.09) + (25)(1.30) + (10)(1.59) +(20)(1.46)
= 78
tizk-1Fzk = (t210)(F11)+(t220)(F21)+(t230)(F31)+(t240)(F41)
=(25)(2.09) + (0)(1.30) + (60)(1.59) +(30)(1.46)
= 191
4
43
34
24
0
t431 = (t340)(T4)(F31)/[(t4z0)(Fz1)]
= (15)(95)(1.59) / (105)
= 22
t121 = (t210)(T1)(F21)/[(t1z0)(Fz1)]
= (25)(115)(1.30) / (78)
= 48
4
43
34
24
0
Iteration 2
Iteration 2: tij(2) = tij(1) Ti Fj(2) / [tiz(1) Fz(2)]
1
2
3
1
0
46
27
2
43
0
77
3
27
83
0
4
41
31
23
4
42
30
24
0
Iteration 3
Limitations of the
Fratar Model
Breaks down mathematically with a new zone
Convergence to the target year not always possible
The model does not reflect travel times or cost of
travel between zones
Thus, this model as well as the other growth factor
models are only used for
The
Gravity
Model
M1 M 2
F=k
r2
The force of attraction between 2 bodies is
directly proportional to the product of masses
between the two bodies and inversely
proportional to the square of the distance
(Productions)(Attractions)(Friction Factor)
Sum of the (Attractions x Friction Factors) of the Zones
Fij = 1 / Wcij
&
ln F = - c ln W
2. Non-parametric
% Trips
Time (min)
Productions, {Pi}
2.
Attractions, {Aj}
3.
Find:
Given
Target-Year Inter-zonal
Impedances, {Wij}
Calibration Factor
c = 2.0
Socioeconomic Adj. Factor
K = 1.0
1
1
Fij = c = F11= 2 = 0.04
5
W ij
Find Denominator of Gravity Model Equation {AjFijKij}
AjFijKij=A4F34K34 = (5)(0.01)(1.0)
= 0.05
Find Probability that Trip i will be attracted to Zone j, {pij}
pij =
AjFijKij
(AzFizKij)
0.05 = 0.3125
0.16
Calibration of
the Gravity Model
When we talk about calibrating the
gravity model, we are referring to
determining the numerical value c
Calibration of
the Gravity Model
Calibration is an iterative process
Qij = Pi
Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)
Calibration of
the Gravity Model
The results are then compared with the
observed values during the base year
Gravity Model
Calibration Example
Given:
Zone 3
10
Zone 1
10
Zone 4
Zone 2
Target-Year Inter-zonal Impedances, {Wij}
15
15
Zone 5
5 TAZ City
Relating F & W
Starting with:
1
Fij = c
W ij
Take the natural log of both sides
ln F = - c ln W
ln F
ln W
First Iteration
Lets assume c = 2.0
Target-Year Inter-zonal
Impedances, {Wij}
1
1
Fij = c = F =
13
W ij
52
= 0.04
First Iteration
c = 2.0
Aj Fij
Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)
First Iteration
c = 2.0
Qij = Pi
Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)
Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)
Second Iteration
Lets assume c = 1.5
Target-Year Inter-zonal
Impedances, {Wij}
1
1
Fij = c = F =
= 0.089
13
W ij
1.5
5
Second Iteration
c = 1.5
Aj Fij
Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)
Second Iteration
c = 1.5
Qij = Pi
TAZ
1
2
3
249
151
Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)
4
132
642
Aj Fij
(Ax Fix)
]
5
120
206
500
1000
K Factors
Even after calibration, there will typically still be
discrepancies between the observed & calculated data
To fine-tune the model, some employ socioeconomic
adjustment factors, also known as K-Factors
Kij = Rij
1-Xi
1 - XiRij
K Factor Example
Rij =
Observed Qij
Calculated Qij
Xi =
Base-Year Qij
Pi
= R13 =
300
249
= 1.20
= X1 =
300
500
= 0.60
1-0.6
1-Xi
Kij = Rij
= K13 = 1.20
= 1.71
1(0.6)(1.2)
1 - XiRij
Limitations of
the Gravity Model
Too much of a reliance on K-Factors in
calibration
External trips and intrazonal trips cause
difficulties
The skim table impedance factors are often too
simplistic to be realistic
Limitations of
the Gravity Model
The model fails to reflect the characteristics of the
individuals or households who decide which destinations
to choose in order to satisfy their activity needs
Zone 1
Income=75000