Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Microsoft Excel
6th Edition
Module 7
Simple Linear Regression
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
13-1
Learning Objectives
In this chapter, you learn:
How to use regression analysis to predict the value of
a dependent variable based on an independent
variable
The meaning of the regression coefficients b0 and b1
To make inferences about the slope and correlation
coefficient
To predict individual values
13-2
13-3
Introduction to
Regression Analysis
DCOVA
13-4
13-5
Types of Relationships
DCOVA
Linear relationships
Y
Curvilinear relationships
Y
X
Y
X
Y
X
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
X
13-6
Types of Relationships
DCOVA
(continued)
Strong relationships
Y
Weak relationships
Y
X
Y
X
Y
X
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
X
13-7
Types of Relationships
DCOVA
(continued)
No relationship
Y
X
Y
X
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
13-8
Population
Y intercept
Dependent
Variable
Population
Slope
Coefficient
Independent
Variable
Random
Error
term
Yi 0 1Xi i
Linear component
Random Error
component
13-9
(continued)
Yi 0 1Xi i
Observed Value
of Y for Xi
Predicted Value
of Y for Xi
Slope = 1
Random Error
for this Xi value
Intercept = 0
Xi
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
X
13-10
Estimate of
the regression
Estimate of the
regression slope
intercept
Yi b0 b1Xi
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
Value of X for
observation i
13-11
13-12
b1
xy nxy
x
nx
b0
x y
xy
n
2
2
x n
y
x
b
n
13-13
Interpretation of the
Slope and the Intercept
DCOVA
13-14
13-15
Square Feet
(X)
245
1400
312
1600
279
1700
308
1875
199
1100
219
1550
405
2350
324
2450
319
1425
255
1700
DCOVA
13-16
DCOVA
13-17
1. Choose Data
3. Choose Regression
13-18
(continued)
DCOVA
13-19
0.76211
R Square
0.58082
Adjusted R Square
0.52842
Standard Error
41.33032
Observations
ANOVA
10
df
SS
MS
F
11.0848
Regression
18934.9348
18934.9348
Residual
13665.5652
1708.1957
Total
32600.5000
Coefficients
Intercept
Square Feet
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Significance F
0.01039
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
98.24833
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
-35.57720
232.07386
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
0.03374
0.18580
13-20
Slope
= 0.10977
Intercept
= 98.248
13-21
13-22
DCOVA
13-23
DCOVA
13-24
DCOVA
Do not try to
extrapolate
beyond the range
of observed Xs
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
13-25
Measures of Variation
DCOVA
SST
SSR
Total Sum of
Squares
Regression Sum
of Squares
SST ( Yi Y )2
SSR ( Yi Y )2
SSE
Error Sum of
Squares
SSE ( Yi Yi )2
where:
13-26
Measures of Variation
(continued)
DCOVA
(Total Variation)
13-27
Measures of Variation
(continued)
DCOVA
Y
Yi
SSE = (Yi - Yi )2
Xi
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
_
Y
X
13-28
Coefficient of Determination, r2
DCOVA
SST
total sum of squares
2
note:
0 r 1
13-29
Examples of Approximate
r2 Values
DCOVA
Y
r2 = 1
r2 = 1
r =1
2
13-30
Examples of Approximate
r2 Values
DCOVA
Y
0 < r2 < 1
X
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
13-31
Examples of Approximate
r2 Values
DCOVA
r2 = 0
No linear relationship
between X and Y:
r2 = 0
13-32
DCOVA
SSR 18934.9348
r
0.58082
SST 32600.5000
2
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.76211
R Square
0.58082
Adjusted R Square
0.52842
Standard Error
41.33032
Observations
ANOVA
10
df
SS
MS
F
11.0848
Regression
18934.9348
18934.9348
Residual
13665.5652
1708.1957
Total
32600.5000
Coefficients
Intercept
Square Feet
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Significance F
0.01039
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
98.24833
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
-35.57720
232.07386
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
0.03374
0.18580
13-33
SSE
S YX
n2
i 1
(Yi Yi ) 2
n2
Where
SSE = error sum of squares
n = sample size
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
13-34
0.76211
R Square
0.58082
Adjusted R Square
0.52842
Standard Error
41.33032
Observations
ANOVA
S YX 41.33032
10
df
SS
MS
F
11.0848
Regression
18934.9348
18934.9348
Residual
13665.5652
1708.1957
Total
32600.5000
Coefficients
Intercept
Square Feet
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Significance F
0.01039
Lower 95%
Upper 95%
98.24833
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
-35.57720
232.07386
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
0.03374
0.18580
13-35
DCOVA
small SYX
large SYX
13-36
Assumptions of Regression
L.I.N.E
DCOVA
Linearity
The relationship between X and Y is linear
Independence of Errors
Error values are statistically independent
Normality of Error
Error values are normally distributed for any given
value of X
Equal Variance (also called homoscedasticity)
The probability distribution of the errors has constant
variance
13-37
S YX
Sb1
SSX
S YX
(X X)
where:
Sb1
S YX
SSE
13-38
Test statistic
t STAT
b1 1
Sb
d.f. n 2
Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall
where:
b1 = regression slope
coefficient
1 = hypothesized slope
Sb1 = standard
error of the slope
13-39
Square Feet
(x)
245
1400
312
1600
279
1700
308
1875
199
1100
219
1550
405
2350
324
2450
319
1425
255
1700
13-40
H0: 1 = 0
H1: 1 0
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
98.24833
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
b1
Sb1
t STAT
b1 1
Sb
0.10977 0
3.32938
0.03297
13-41
H0: 1 = 0
H1: 1 0
d.f. = 10- 2 = 8
/2=.025
Reject H0
/2=.025
Do not reject H0
-t/2
-2.3060
Reject H0
t/2
2.3060
3.329
Decision: Reject H0
There is sufficient evidence
that square footage affects
house price
13-42
H0: 1 = 0
H1: 1 0
From Excel output:
Coefficients
Intercept
Square Feet
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
98.24833
58.03348
1.69296
0.12892
0.10977
0.03297
3.32938
0.01039
p-value
13-43
F Test statistic:
where
MSR
FSTAT
MSE
MSR
SSR
k
MSE
SSE
n k 1
13-44
0.76211
R Square
0.58082
Adjusted R Square
0.52842
Standard Error
41.33032
Observations
ANOVA
MSR 18934.9348
FSTAT
11.0848
MSE 1708.1957
10
df
MS
F
11.0848
Regression
18934.9348
18934.9348
Residual
13665.5652
1708.1957
Total
32600.5000
p-value for
the F-Test
Significance F
0.01039
13-45
DCOVA
Test Statistic:
H 0 : 1 = 0
H 1 : 1 0
= .05
df1= 1
FSTAT
df2 = 8
Decision:
Reject H0 at = 0.05
Critical
Value:
F = 5.32
Conclusion:
= .05
Do not
reject H0
Reject H0
MSR
11.08
MSE
F.05 = 5.32
13-46
13-47
13-48
(continued)
13-49
Chapter Summary
13-50
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher.
Printed in the United States of America.
13-51