Pertmaster Training Deck

Schedule Risk Analytics with PertMaster
Improving Schedule Quality &

Validating Capability to Execute
Course Outline
An introduction to schedule risk

analysis theory
CPM vs. Schedule Risk Analysis
Better estimates for completion
dates
Effect of skewed distributions
The parallel paths effect
Types of schedule
Schedule Review
Schedule Check Report
Pre-Analysis Checks
Identifying Project Drivers
Risk Identification
Estimate Uncertainty
Risk Events: Risk Register
Develop Preliminary Risk Model

Estimate Uncertainty:
Importing from Primavera &
MS Project
Task Details
Quick Risk
Templated Quick Risk
Correlation
Risk Events
Task Existence
Probabilistic Branching
Risk Register
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Course Outline
Preliminary Analysis & Review

Risk Analysis Options
Building an Impacted Risk Plan
Distribution Graph
Tornado Graph
Bookmarks
Distribution Analyzer
Final Model & Report

Mitigation Planning
Mitigation Plan Analysis
P-Schedules
Updating Primavera
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PertMaster Monte Carlo Simulation
Range forms an envelope

One value is selected each iteration
Random simulation of activity durations
iteration
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10 days
9 days
14 days
2
1
6
5
4
3
20
19
12 18
11 17
10 16
9 15
8 14
7 13
17 days
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
10 days
33
32
31
30
29
28
38
37
36
35
34
14 days
42
41 45
40 44 47
39 43 46 48
4Pessimistic
17
78910
11
12
11
31
5
16
17
Optimistic
Likely
13 days
7 days
10 days
12 days
10 days
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Project Risk Types

Model
Risk Distributions e.g. 3pt estimates
Monte Carlo simulation
Reduction of risk exposure

Contingency
Risk responses (e.g. mitigation)
Risk Events
Model
Risk register/log
PI Matrices
Estimate
EstimateUncertainty
Uncertainty++Risk
RiskEvents
Events==Total
TotalRisk
RiskExposure
Exposure
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Uncertainty vs. Risk Events
Minimum
Most Likely
Duration Variability
Maximum
Maximum
Risk Event Risk Event
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Schedule Risk Analysis Theory

An Introduction
Overview of traditional CPM
10d
--/--/--
Predicts single completion date and cost

Uses single values for activity durations and costs
Does not take uncertainty into account
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CPM with schedule risk analysis
10d
--/--/-8d
10d
15d
Quantifies probability of completing project on time and budget

Uses 3 point estimates for durations and costs (min, most likely, max)
Takes uncertainty into account
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Better estimates for completion dates
Single-Path Schedule
CPM schedule finishes on December 10, relies on combinations of
durations that equal 70 days
Likelihood of the 10th December?
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Exercise: Find out chance of meeting 10th December
Open TrainingDesignBuild_1Path.plan from the Samples folder
Risk | Run Risk Analysis
Save plan if requested
Keep default analysis options and click Analyze
Identify chance of completing on time
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Exercise: Find out chance of meeting 10th December
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Why is there only a 18% chance?
Distributions are skewed most likely is nearer to minimum than maximum
There is a greater chance an activity will take more time rather than less
time to complete.
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Effect of skewed distributions
What would be the chance of completing the project on time if each

distribution was symmetrical?
50%
Therefore: With skewed distributions the chance of hitting a schedule end

date will be less than 50%
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Effect of parallel paths
This project also completes on December 10
Is it more or less risky than single path?
Likelihood of December 10th finish?
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Exercise: Parallel paths
Open TrainingDesignBuild.plan from the Samples folder
Save plan if requested
Keep default analysis options and click Analyze
Identify chance of completing on time
Schedule with parallel paths more or less risky?
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More risky
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Combined effect of skew and parallel paths
Skewed Distributions
+
Parallel Paths
=
Typically less than 20%
chance of hitting completion
date
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Most likely schedule

10d
8d
10d
15d
A most likely schedule has deterministic activity durations equal to the

most likely durations
The chance of completing the project on time will be dependent on duration
uncertainty and parallel paths
The date it gives is not the most likely
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Deterministic duration always most likely?
Schedules often contain activities where the duration estimates are not the
most likely.
Why?
Estimator was too optimistic
Estimator was too pessimistic
Estimator wanted to add their own contingency
The original estimate was inaccurate
Others?
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Schedule types
Schedules can be categorized as the following:

1. The Realists schedule (most likely)
2. The Aggressive schedule (optimists)
3. The Cautious schedule (pessimists)
4. The Scale to Fit schedule (politics!)
Lets look at 2, 3 and 4 in more detail
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What type is your schedule?
Do you know whether the durations in your schedules are cautious,

aggressive or the most likely?
Obtaining three point estimates and running a schedule risk analysis will
help identify the type of schedule you are working with.
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2. Aggressive schedule
9d
8d
10d
15d
Activities have durations that are less than their most likely durations
The risk analysis will tell us about the chance (if any!) of hitting the aggressive
schedule date
Any advantages or disadvantages to working to an aggressive schedule?
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3. Cautious schedule
12d
8d
10d
15d
Perhaps the worst type of schedule

Activities with durations that are greater than their most likely (i.e. the durations
include contingency)
We would expect some activities to take longer than planned and others shorter
than planned. HOWEVER we do not know which activities will do what.
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Parkinsons Law
12d
Work expands to fill the time available for its completion

8d
10d
15d
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4. The Scale to Fit schedule
Schedules are often driven by a completion date and not realistic duration
estimates
Activity durations are scaled so that project finishes on a predetermined

date e.g. the contract date, client requirement.
Schedule may then be most likely, aggressive or cautious
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Why run a quantitative analysis?
To help create more realistic schedules
To improve awareness of project risk and uncertainty
To identify schedule assumptions
Communication: Develop a better understanding of the schedule amongst

the project team
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PertMaster Risk Methodology
Schedule Review
Best Practices Check
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Enter Estimate Uncertainty
Map Risks to Activities
Analyze 3pt Estimates
Analyze Risk Events
Risk Event plan
Response planning
Risk
Management
Process
Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11
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Schedule Review
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Analyze Risk Events
Risk Event plan
Response planning
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Schedule Review
Validating the quality of the schedule
Schedule Review
Schedule Check Report

Checks for Scheduling Best Practices
Not all categories need to be 0
If there is a valid business reason then leave it as it is
Dont scam the report defeats the purpose
Pre-Analysis Check
Not all schedule issues can be identified through the Schedule Check
Report (e.g. poor logic, inconsistent level of detail)
A quick, coarse analysis can help identify these types of issues
This can be done through:
Duration Quick Risk
Criticality Index
Duration Sensitivity
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New Store Schedule
File | Open | Samples

TrainingNewStore.plan
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Checking the schedule
Before considering a risk analysis,

check the quality of the schedule
Reports | Schedule Check
Report
Produces a report in the PertMaster

Report Viewer
Can be summary or full report
Content can be customized
Can be tagged
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Schedule Checker
Checks schedule quality

Constraints
Start no earlier
than constraint
Open-ended tasks
Start to Finish links
Negative lags
Positive lags
Long lags
Broken logic
Calendars on lags
Link on summary tasks (MS Project)
Duration Validation
Lost opportunity
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Pre-Analysis Check
Validating consistency in level of task detail
Duration Quick Risk
Before running a detailed analysis, it is

valuable to run a quick analysis to further
validate the state of the schedule
Duration Quick Risk can be used to create

3pt estimates based on each activitys
remaining duration
We want to get a feel for what uncertainty

looks like against the deterministic schedule
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Exercise: Duration Quick Risk
Run Duration Quick Risk on the

project:
Risk | Duration Quick Risk
Enter 95%, 100% and 120%

(skewed distributions)
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Summary: Duration Quick Risk
Can be applied to All, Selected or Filtered tasks
Use to create minimum, most likely and maximum estimates based on a

percentage of the remaining duration
Gives a feel for uncertainty in the schedule
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Run an Analysis
Set Iterations
Set report to be displayed
Click the Options button for additional options

Risk Data
Analysis
Warnings
Click Analyze
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Distribution Graph
During the analysis, the duration, start date and finish date of each task and
the duration and finish date of the entire project is recorded for each
iteration.
By default, the Distribution Graph displays a distribution of the finish date

for the schedule risk analysis.
Use the task list in the left-hand pane to view the distribution for an
individual task, summary, or milestone
To open the Distribution Graph:

Risk | Distribution Graph
Toolbar Button
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Distribution Graph
Shows the result of the risk analysis
Project
Tree
Statistics
Controls
Tabs for Distribution Types
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Distribution Graph
Project Tree (left)

Can navigate to the desired activity
Can expand and contract the tree
Can filter the displayed activities
Histogram (center)
Tabs for Distribution types
Highlighters (can be customized)
Statistics (right)
Summary of results
Controls
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Distribution Graph
New Store
Entire Plan : Finish Date
100% 26/Mar/08
95% 18/Mar/08
90% 14/Mar/08
1000
85% 14/Mar/08
80% 13/Mar/08
75% 12/Mar/08
800
65% 11/Mar/08
Hits
60% 10/Mar/08
55% 10/Mar/08
600
50% 07/Mar/08
45% 07/Mar/08
40% 06/Mar/08
400
35% 06/Mar/08
Cumulative Frequency
70% 11/Mar/08
Cumulative
Probability
30% 05/Mar/08
25% 05/Mar/08
20% 04/Mar/08
200
15% 03/Mar/08
10% 29/Feb/08
5% 28/Feb/08
0
0% 20/Feb/08
28/Feb/08
09/Mar/08
19/Mar/08
Distribution (start of interval)
Distribution Range
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Formatting the Histogram
Format | Graph
Formatting labels, colors, view of the histogram
Format | Highlighters
Create highlighters
Format | Layout
Select what sections are displayed in the histogram view
Format | Statistics Grid

Select the font and font size
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Formatting Highlighters
Format | Highlighters
Opens the Highlighters dialog
Add creates an additional highlighter
Delete completely removes the highlighter
You can toggle the highlighter in the Highlighters pane located directly
beneath the graph
Types of Highlighters
Arrows (point to a single value)
Shade between values (pick two values to shade between)
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Formatting Highlighters Arrows
To create a new Arrow:

Click Add
Select Arrow for Type
Select Value 1 (Deterministic, Target or Percentile)
If Percentile enter the percentile to be highlighted
Choose the line color, line thickness and description
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Formatting Highlighters Shading
To create a new Shade between values highlighter

Click Add
Select Shade between values for Type
If Percentile, enter the percentile to be highlighted
If percentile, enter the percentile to be highlighted
Choose the line color, line thickness and description
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Identifying & Validating Project Drivers

Tornado Graphs
Identifying Project Drivers
Use the Tornado Graph to identify & validate project drivers
Duration Sensitivity & Criticality Index are most often used
Risk | Tornado Graph
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Identify High Risk Activities
The critical path is useful

Determines the earliest the project can finish
Delay on the critical path delays the project
The path that most deserves risk management
Criticality Index
During the risk analysis, the number of times an activity was critical is
recorded
The percentage of iterations a given activity landed on the critical path =
Criticality Index
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Criticality Index
Criticality identifies activities that are likely to be on the critical path given
the uncertainty in the schedule.
Therefore, reduce durations and/or uncertainty on activities with a high

criticality index to improve the chance of completing the project on time.
100% criticality: If task is delayed, project is delayed.
Focus on the tasks with high criticality index first.
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Exercise: Criticality Index (1 of 1)
Open TrainingDesignBuild_criticality.plan
Unit 1 no longer critical but
has more uncertainty
(company has not made this unit type before)
Unit 2 given less uncertainty

(company has made similar units before)
Unit 2 is on the Traditional Critical Path should we concentrate on Unit 2?
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Criticality Index Shows Unit 1 more risky!
CPM shows we should focus on Unit 2?
Risk Analysis shows we should focus on Unit 1
Traditional CPM can Mask Risks!
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Duration Sensitivity
What makes an activity have a high duration sensitivity?

On the critical path
Long duration
Relatively large uncertainty on duration
Sensitivity identifies activities that delay the project finish. Use it to identify
the tasks that are influencing the project finish due to their range of
uncertainty.
If the activities identified in the Duration Sensitivity tornado do not make

sense (key activities missing, minor activities showing as drivers), review the
project schedule many times poor logic is a factor
If the activities appear correct, but out of order, a detailed analysis will
typically yield better results
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Tornado Graph
Tornado Graph is used to display and rank sensitivity, criticality and

cruciality values.
Tabs for Tornado Graphs
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Tornado Graph
Tornado Graph (left)

Shows the activities ranked by sensitivity
Select which activities to view using the
controls
Double-click the bar to be taken to the activity
in the Gantt Chart
Tools | Bookmark Visible Tasks adds a
bookmark to the activity for later reference
Statistics (right)
Displays Analysis Details
Display Settings
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Tornado Graph Duration Sensitivity for a Key Activity
Duration Sensitivity identifies which activities are likely to delay the project
However
We may be interested in the activities that are likely to delay an intermediate
task or milestone
Which activities in a schedule can influence the completion of a intermediate

task or milestone?
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Tornado Graph Sensitivity Settings
Choose Sensitivity Measurement

Persons Product Moment
Spearmans Rank Correlation
Measure Sensitivity of:

Entire Plan
Summary
Activity
With:
All Tasks
Child Tasks Only
Logical Predecessors Only
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Tornado Graph Formatting
Format | Chart
Task Filtering options (same as in controls below)
Bar formatting and coloring
Format | Statistics Font

Select the font and font size
Format | Layout
Select what sections are displayed in the tornado view
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Bookmarks
Bookmarking the tasks in the Tornado allows the activities to be referenced

quickly back in the Gantt chart
Bookmarks can be added, deleted, and filtered
Bookmarks can also be used to navigate

through the Gantt Chart
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Summary: Results
Distribution Graph
Displays the distribution results of the risk analysis
Can view the distribution of the entire project, summary, or activity
Tornado Graph
Displays and ranks sensitivity, criticality and cruciality values
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Summary: Schedule Review
Before running an analysis, use the Schedule Check Report to check for
scheduling best practices
Use Duration Quick Risk to populate the minimum, most likely, and
maximum values in order to run a quick analysis
Sanity check the results of the Duration Quick Risk analysis in the
Tornado Graph
Review the Duration Sensitivity and Criticality Index graphs to identify

and verify the project drivers
If the quick analysis results make sense, then continue with a more detailed
analysis, if not, review and revise the schedule
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Schedule Review
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Analyze Risk Events
Risk Event plan
Response planning
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Risk Identification
Risky areas of the project
Focus Areas:
Critical path
Near Critical Path
High Risk Activities
Is the uncertainty based on Phase? Area? Sub-area? Contractor?
Risk Events
Use the Project Risk Register
Add additional risks & opportunities as necessary
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Schedule Review
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Analyze Risk Events
Risk Event plan
Response planning
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Developing the model takes all of the inputs collected in Risk Identification
and applies them in the best possible way
Import from Primavera or Microsoft Project
Task Details
Duration Quick Risk
Correlation
Risk Events
Task Existence
Risk Register
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Importing from Primavera

Getting the schedule data into PertMaster from P6/P5
Importing from Primavera
File | Primavera
Project in P5/6 database

Can open multiple projects and entire EPS nodes
Can feed back analysis results
Project in P5/6 XER file

Can export from P5 to an XER file
Can not feed back analysis results
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Importing from Primavera P5/6 Setup
If it is the first time connecting to P5/6 from PertMaster, run the Connection
Wizard first
File | Primavera | Connection Wizard
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Importing from Primavera P5/6 Setup
To import data from P5/6 or to store analysis results in P5/6, User Defined
Fields need to be created in P5/6
In P5/6 Enterprise | User Defined Fields
Create the User Defined Fields needed
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Importing from Primavera Mappings
Import mappings
Choose where uncertainty is stored in Primavera
Choose how to import resources / costs
Warnings
Links to other projects
Planning units
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Importing from Primavera Mappings
Select the project(s) to import (P5/6)
Import mappings
Set your planning units
Choose how to import
resources/costs
Choose which Activity Codes/User
Defined fields to import
Warnings
Links to other projects
Planning units
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Importing from Primavera Verifying the Import
Check all dates:

Click on the Import Check sheet
Look at the grey bars these are the dates in Primavera
Start Check and Finish Check user defined fields
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Summary: Importing from Primavera
PertMaster imports a copy of the schedule
Activity codes and Custom Data Items are included in the import
Define Custom Data Items in Primavera prior to importing into PertMaster
Use Custom Data Items to store uncertainty estimates and analysis results
Map the Custom Data Items to the fields in PertMaster
Verify the import on the Import Check sheet in PertMaster
TIP: If you having issues with the P3 file, use the P3 Project File Recovery
Program (PFXW.exe), located in the P3PROGS directory, to rebuild the file
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Importing from Microsoft Project
Project in server database

MSP Server
Project in local database file (MPD)

MSP 2007 / 2003 / 2000 /
When asked Append or Overwrite, choose Overwrite
Project in file (MPP)

MSP 2007 / 2003 / 2000 /
Project in MPX file

MSP 2000 /
Many other tools
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Setting up Microsoft Project
PertMaster can add a custom toolbar to Microsoft Project
File | Microsoft Project | Add Toolbars and Views to MS Project
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Importing into PertMaster
Files can be imported into PertMaster two ways:

Start the import in Microsoft Project using the Open In PertMaster
button on the PertMaster toolbar
Start the import in PertMaster using File | Microsoft Project | Open

Project
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Import Mappings Tasks
The Import Mapping dialog

provides a way to map fields from
Microsoft Project to fields in
PertMaster
There are three tabs, Tasks,

Probabilistic, Resources and Cost
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Importing from Microsoft Project Completing the Import
The project is then opened in PertMaster
Save the file
Review any import warnings
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Importing from Microsoft Project Verifying the Import
Check all dates:

Click on the Import Check sheet
Look at the grey bars these are the dates in Microsoft Project
Start Check and Finish Check user defined fields
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Applying Estimates in PertMaster

Using Templated Quick Risk
Task Details
Estimate uncertainty can be entered for individual tasks
Task Details | Risk And Uncertainty | Duration Uncertainty
Estimates can also be entered directly into

the Minimum Duration, Most Likely Duration
and Maximum Duration columns
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Duration Quick Risk
Used to assign estimates to

activities quickly
Creates minimum, most likely and

maximum estimates based on a
percentage of the remaining
duration of each activity
Can be applied to All, Selected or

Filtered tasks
However, Duration Quick Risk

can be too generic
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Templated Quick Risk allows duration distributions to be assigned to tasks

based on a template
Creates estimates based on percentages
The template is stored in the plan for reference to can be re-applied
Templates can also be saved and re-used on different plans.
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Can apply different shapes to different groups of tasks
For Example: Categories tasks by Duration uncertainty
Duration uncertainty
Rationale
Min
Likely
Max
High uncertainty
Duration could double
75%
100%
200%
Medium uncertainty
Could be half as much again
80%
100%
150%
Low uncertainty
Could be -10% / +20%
90%
100%
120%
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Example: Qualitative duration uncertainty
Open TrainingRocket.plan sample

Scroll to see the Duration Uncertainty column
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Format | Barchart Columns

The Duration Uncertainty column is a user field
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Risk | Templated Quick Risk

Clear All if there is a template already defined
Set up the template shown below
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Example: Uncertainty by WBS
Can assess duration uncertainty at a higher level
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Can assess duration uncertainty at a higher level
Phase uncertainty
Rationale
Min
Likely
Max
A020 Preliminaries
We dont know much about this

phase
75%
100%
200%
A060 - Design
We have some knowledge
85%
100%
150%
A140 - Fabrication
Less uncertain, but are consistently

under estimated
90%
110%
130%
A180 - Testing
We have some knowledge
85%
100%
150%
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Risk | Templated Quick Risk

Clear All
Define new template by WBS
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Summary: Templated Quick Risk
Categories tasks
By qualitative uncertainty: High / Medium / Low uncertainty
By discipline:
Design / Engineering / Testing /
By WBS
By when the task happens
Use a different distribution for each category
Re-use templates, achieve consistency

Store organizational knowledge
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Correlation
Why, when and how to use Correlation
Correlation
Measure correlation
Sensitivity analysis
Measure cost / time correlation
To measure correlation:
Risk | Scatter Plot
Toolbar Button
Format | Settings to choose what to measure
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Correlation Scatter Plot
Highlighters can be moved by clicking and dragging

Highlighters can be set using the controls at the bottom of the scatter plot
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Define correlation
Define correlation
Link two uncertain elements in the model - reflect common causes
without needing too much detail
Take account of Central Limit Theorem (CLT)
Example:
Time to train new staff is related to time to install computer systems
To define correlation:
Risk | Correlation
Choose the first uncertain element
Choose Set Correlation
Choose the second uncertain element, and Add
Choose amount of correlation, and OK
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Exercise: Define correlation
Use TrainingRocket.plan
Run the risk analysis
In the Distribution Graph, click Add to Distribution Analyzer (for later
comparison)
Close the Distribution Graph
Scenario:
The project team has identified a strong correlation between A110
Design rocket engine and A160 Fabricate guidance system
There are many common factors between them, which means they are
likely to tend to either both be long or both be short
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Risk | Correlation
Choose A110, and Set Correlation
Choose A160, and Add
Set the strength to 100%
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Step through and run the risk analysis

Check that the durations of both tasks move somewhat in step
How has the correlation changed the project finish date distribution?
In the Distribution Graph, choose Add to Distribution Analyzer
Choose Reports | Distribution Analyzer
Right-click on the left

to name them clearly
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The effect of correlation
Correlation tends to make project finish date and cost distributions wider
Negative correlation can also apply (and makes them narrower)

For example, longer design means shorter manufacture?
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Define Correlation
Other ways to define correlation

Correlate groups of variables together
Show correlations in a column
In the Risk Register, when a risk impacts many tasks
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Correlation Central Limit Theorem
What is the Central Limit Theorem?

A mathematical theorem that states when large numbers of random
samples are combined they converge towards a central limit- the mean
of the resulting normal distribution
How does this apply to a risk analysis?

The more detail/activities (samples), the less variance - unless you have
correlation
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Example: Correlation and level of detail
Create the plan below:
Are the two versions of this project the same?
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Run the analysis, and compare P1 and P2 durations with the Distribution
Analyzer
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They are not the same, because at

a different level of detail
Correlation makes them the same
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Correlation and level of detail
Add correlation to reflect reality as best as possible within reason
Easiest to use Templated Quick Risk, when categorizing by WBS
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Resources and Cost Uncertainty

Modeling cost-loaded resources
Cost Uncertainty
Costs can be assigned to individual activities and WBS items in a project
A cost assignment can be time-dependent (e.g. labor) or time-independent

(e.g. materials)
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Time independent costs
Scenario: Locate premises involves hiring an agency which is a fixed fee of

$5,000.
Insert the Cost (Remaining) column.

Plan | Resources: Add a resource with a spread loading.
Assign 5000 units to the task Locate premises

Step through risk analysis and cost does not change
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Time dependent costs
Scenario: Refurbish premises will need 3 decorators, at $200 per day each.
Plan | Resources: Add a resource with a Normal loading and cost $200.
Assign 3 decorators to the task Refurbish premises
Step through risk analysis and see cost change
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Cost uncertainty
So far the cost variation in our analysis is due to the uncertainty of the task
durations.
Task costs / resources can also be assigned distributions...
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Uncertainty on Fixed costs
Scenario: The $5,000 agency fee for locating premises was a good guess,
but it could be different. It will be between $4,000 and $7,000.
Add uncertainty to the agency fee resource assignment
Use a Discrete distribution so the model reflects our scenario.
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Uncertainty on time related cost
Scenario: The number of decorators employed could be between 2 and 5.
Add uncertainty to the decorator resource assignment
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Uncertainty on resource rate
Scenario: The day rate paid to the decorators is uncertain. It will be

somewhere between $150 and $300 per day.
Assign uncertainty to the decorator resource daily cost (Plan | Resources)
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Summary: Resource & Cost Uncertainty
Costs are assigned to activities through resources
Resources can be assigned cost that are time-dependent (normal loading)

or time-independent (spread loading)
Quantity uncertainty is applied to resources assigned at the activity level
Rate uncertainty is applied to resources in the resource definition dialog
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Introduction to Risk Events

Modeling risk events and uncertainty explicitly
Estimate Uncertainty or Risk Events?
Estimate Uncertainty: We cannot give an exact duration for an activity.

Unpredictable things can happen that increase or reduce an activity duration
Risk Events: There maybe events that have a probability of occurrence and
when they do occur they have an impact on the schedule
Example - Travel to Work

Uncertainty: It takes between 25 and 45 minutes to travel to work. There
are many reasons why the journey varies by 20 minutes. In fact too many
and too minor for us to identify the specific events that cause this variation.
Risk: There is a 5% chance there will be an accident adding another 25 to

45 minutes to the journey. This is an event that sometimes occurs and has a
significant impact.
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Uncertainty vs. Risk Events
Minimum
Most Likely
Duration Variability
Maximum
Maximum
Risk Event Risk Event
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Modeling Risk Events
Single Impact
Task Existence
Series of Impacts
Probabilistic branching
Multiple Impacts to Multiple Activities

Risk Register
PertMaster Ltd 2
Exercise: Risk event
Use TrainingNewStore.plan
While refurbishing premises, there is a 20% chance that hidden wiring may
be found discovered; resulting in a 10-20d delay.
Modeling the risk:

Add a new task before Refurbish Premises
Name this task Risk Summary: Refurbish Premises
Now add a new task after Refurbish premises

Name this task Risk: Hidden Wiring Found
Remove the links from the Refurbish Premises task and reinstate them
on the Risk Summary: Refurbish Premises task
Make Hidden Wiring Found the successor to the Refurbish Premises
task
PertMaster Ltd 2
Exercise: Risk event
Right-click on Risk: Hidden Wiring Found, and choose Existence Risk

Click On and set the correct probability
Run the risk analysis, and step through.
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Summary: Task Existence
Task Existence can be assigned as a percentage to any activity
During the risk analysis the activity will occur for only a percentage of the
iterations
Task Existence should be used to model events that have a probability of

occurrence
Give activities with less than 100% existence a zero duration so they do not
impact the deterministic finish date
PertMaster Ltd 2
Reflecting reality in your risk model
Probabilistic branching
Used to express uncertainty in paths that may be taken
Select configuration
Option 1
Design fuel system
Option 2
Design rocket engine

Design fuel system
Option 3
Design frame
Design fuel system
PertMaster Ltd 2
Example: Probabilistic branching
After A090 - Select configuration, either:

Option 1: 20% likely
Use an off-the-shelf solution for the rocket which already has a fuel system
and rocket engine, so we dont need the following 2 tasks
Use an off-the-shelf solution for the missile which already has a fuel system,
so we dont need the following task
Design it all ourselves, so we need to do all the following 3 tasks
PertMaster Ltd 2
Add the three options as milestones, and make successors to:

A090 - Select configuration
Link appropriately:
Option 1 successors: Design fuel system
Option 2 successors:
Design fuel system, Design rocket engine
Option 3 successors:
Design fuel system, Design rocket engine, Design frame
PertMaster Ltd 2
Double-click A090 - Select configuration

Risk and Uncertainty | Probabilistic Branch
Check On
Set the probabilities
They must add up to 100%
PertMaster Ltd 2
Summary: Probabilistic Branching
Probabilistic Branching is used to model the probability of a series of

tasks occurring
Also when the outcomes are exclusive, i.e. only one of the outcomes occurs
Probabilistic branches can be nested inside other probabilistic branches
Probabilistic branches can be combined with Task Existence
PertMaster Ltd 2
Risk Register
Including risk events from CRiTer in an analysis
Risk Register
Provides the ability to incorporate a qualitative risk register in a quantitative

risk analysis
Capture the pre-mitigation assessment, mitigation plan, and post mitigation

assessment
Risks can be mapped to the specific activities they impact in the schedule
The quantitative risk analysis gives combined impact of risks on the

schedule completion date and cost
Can use the Distribution Analyzer to compare the Pre- and Post-mitigation
scenarios
PertMaster Ltd 2
Risk Register
Think of three risks that could affect it
Add them to the risk register
Risk | Register
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Risk Register Describing Risks
Fully describe the three risks

Title a concise description of what it is that may or may not happen
(there is a risk that )
Cause background conditions (ideally facts)
Description full description of what it is that may or may not happen
Effect the consequences (be specific in terms of the affected area of
the project)
PertMaster Ltd 2
Risk Register Assessing Risks
For each risk, give qualitative assessments (High, Medium, Low etc.) for:
Probability
Schedule impact
Cost impact
Performance impact
The scores indicate the overall rating of the risks
PertMaster Ltd 2
Risk Register Risk Scores
Try to make one risk red by increasing one of its assessments
Probability
Schedule impact
Cost impact
Performance impact
Try to make one risk green by decreasing one of its assessments
Change them back afterwards
PertMaster Ltd 2
Risk Register Risk Scores
Edit | Risk Scoring
PertMaster Ltd 2
Risk Register Adding impact types
Add a new impact type that could apply to one of your risks
PertMaster Ltd 2
Risk Register Adding impact types
Assess the risk for the new impact type
The score will only change if the new impact types assessment is higher
than all the others
Schedule impact
Cost impact
Performance impact
PertMaster Ltd 2
Risk Register Mapping to tasks
Map each risk to specific tasks
PertMaster Ltd 2
Risk Register Refining Impacts
Refine quantitative assessments

Can use qualitative assessments as starting point
Clicking on Quantified allows impacts to be refined
PertMaster Ltd 2
Schedule Review
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Analyze Risk Events
Risk Event plan
Response planning
PertMaster Ltd 2
Build Impacted Risk Plan
Run Analysis
Set Options
Iterations
Task Percentiles
Sensitivity
View Results
Distribution Graph
Tornado Graphs
Scatter Plot
PertMaster Ltd 2
Build Impacted Risk Plan
Build the impacted risk plan

Risk | Build Impacted Risk Plan
In the Risk Register: Tools | Build Impacted Risk

Plan
The risk is added as a task to model:

where in the project the additional delays /
costs occur
the size of the impacts
the likelihood of the impacts
the deterministic duration
PertMaster Ltd 2
Allows the distributions from outputs to be compared
To open the Distribution Analyzer

Reports | Distribution Analyzer
Toolbar Button
If the report contains no data it will prompt to import data
Click Yes to select data to be imported
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Distribution Analyzer Import Data
PertMaster Ltd 2
Distribution Analyzer Import Data
With the Import Data to report dialog open

Check the files to include in the report
To open additional files, click Open and select the file
Choose the Type of data to import
Select which tasks to import
Click Import Data
If risk data is missing, click OK to run the risk analysis
PertMaster Ltd 2
PertMaster Ltd 2
Report Tree (left)

Select to View S-Curves or Histograms
Select which data to view in report
Select which line items to view in report
Distribution Report (right)

Data Table (bottom)
Shows the data used for the S-curves
Highlight percentile (lower right corner)
With 2 data sets selected will highlight and report variance between
the two
With 3 or more data sets selected will highlight values (will not
calculate variance)
PertMaster Ltd 2
Distribution Analyzer Formatting
File | Import Data

Opens the Import data to report dialog
View | S-Curves
View | Histograms
View | Both
Tools | Options
View Histogram as: Bars or Trace
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Summary: Results
Allows multiple distributions to be compared entire plans, activities
Can compare finish date, start date, durations, cost, etc.
PertMaster Ltd 2
Schedule Review
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Analyze Risk Events
Risk Event plan
Response planning
PertMaster Ltd 2
Response Planning
Developing and modeling risk mitigation plans
Risk Register Mitigation overview
Where we
could be
Where we
are now
How we could get there
PertMaster Ltd 2
Risk Register Adding mitigation
Add two mitigation actions for the response to the risk

Give them Start and Finish dates
Give them an estimated cost
For the other risks, make post-mitigation assessments the same as for premitigation
PertMaster Ltd 2
Risk Register Running the analysis
Tools | Build Impacted Risk Plan
Build a pre-mitigation plan only
Run the risk analysis
Compare finish date distribution with the plan before you added your risks
PertMaster Ltd 2
Risk Register Risk significance
Show a duration sensitivity tornado

In the Display mode section, choose Risks
Note the significance on project duration of your risk
PertMaster Ltd 2
Tornado Graph Risk Mode
When the analysis includes risks from the Risk Register, use Risk Mode to
review the sensitivity analysis of the impact of the risks
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Risk Register Mitigation benefit
Show the effect of mitigation on project duration and project cost

Build both Pre- and Post-mitigation plans
Reports | Distribution Analyzer
If it already has distributions, File | Clear Report and then
File Import Data (see next slide for example comparison)
Optional: Show the effect of the specific mitigation of your risk
PertMaster Ltd 2
Risk Register Compare S-curves
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Risk Register Sanctioning mitigation
Choose an action to approve and sanction

File | Return to plan
Add the action as a task to the project, with duration, cost and links
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Risk | Register
Mark the action as Sanctioned
PertMaster Ltd 2
Specify the corresponding task in the project that will complete the action
The action changes status to Planned

and takes the tasks dates and costs
PertMaster Ltd 2
Creating & Displaying P-Schedules

Using probabilistic schedule data
to track and manage uncertainty
P-Schedules
PertMaster calculates the percentile date (e.g. P50, P80, P90) for each
activity in the schedule
Selected percentile dates can be assigned to each activity and then

displayed on the Gantt chart
Deterministic Bar
P50 Bar
P80 Bar
PertMaster Ltd 2
Exercise: Creating P-Schedules
Verify Task User Fields have been

created to store P-Schedule data
Plan | Plan Information | Task User

Fields
If needed, create additional fields
PertMaster Ltd 2
Exercise: Creating P-Schedules
Risk | Run Risk Analysis, and choose More

Check Create Task Risk Percentiles
Click Settings button:
Click OK and then Analyze

Close the Distribution Graph
Double-click on an activity and the P-schedule dates can be seen in the
Task Details pane: User Fields | Dates
PertMaster Ltd 2
Exercise: Displaying P-Schedules
Insert | Insert Sheet

Choose Risk Outputs.sheet
Deterministic Bar
P50 Bar
P80 Bar
The sheet is a different view on the same data

It shows the P50 and P80 dates in columns and on the Gantt chart
To change the formatting of the P-Schedule: Format | Custom Task Bars
PertMaster Ltd 2
Using P-Schedules as a baseline
Customer expectations have been set at the 80% date
The P80 schedule can then be used as the customer baseline

Shows a scheduling of the tasks that give the 80% finish date
Each task shows when it will probably (at P80) have started and
finished
Note:
Continue to use deterministic schedule as your baseline (Parkinsons
law!)
Only use the P80 schedule to set customer expectations
PertMaster Ltd 2
Summary: P-Schedules
Chosen percentiles can be calculated for each activity in a schedule
The P-Schedule dates are often used as a risked baseline
The P50 to P90 range are typical P-schedules used
The P-schedules can be displayed on the Gantt chart as bars or markers
PertMaster Ltd 2
Updating Primavera
Sending data back in to Primavera
Updating Primavera
Can feed back P-schedules and

sensitivities
P5/6
File | Primavera | Update
Primavera Project
P3
File | Primavera | Update
Primavera P3 Project
PertMaster Ltd 2
P5/6 Export Mappings

Click the Load button and locate
the file
P3eMappingJavaAPI_01.mfP3e
(located in the Others folder in the
PertMaster installation directory)
Click Open
Click Update Now to update P3
P3 Export Mappings
Click the Load button and locate
the file P3Mappings.mfP3
(located in the Others folder in the
PertMaster installation directory)
Click Open
Click Update Now to update P3
PertMaster Ltd 2
Updating Primavera Viewing Results
P5/6
View | Layout | Open
Choose layout: Risk Output - User Dates
If layout not in the list
Choose Import
Navigate to C:\Program Files\PertMaster
Software\Pertmaster78x\Others
Choose layout file: Risk Output - User Dates.plf
P3
View | Layout | Open
Choose layout: Risk - Output + Bars
If layout not in the list
Layouts can be transferred to other P3 projects using the View |
Layout | Transfer
PertMaster Ltd 2
Updating Microsoft Project

Sending data back into MSP
To send the results of the analysis back to Microsoft Project, select the icon
on the toolbar, or File | Microsoft Project | Update Project
PertMaster Ltd 2
Updating Microsoft Project Mappings
The Microsoft Project Mappings

dialog will open
If the mappings are blank:

Click the Load button and
locate the file
MSPMappings01.mfMSP
(usually located in the Others
folder in the Pertmaster8x
installation directory)
Click Open
PertMaster Ltd 2
Updating Microsoft Project Mappings (cont.)
The default mapping will now be

displayed in the mappings dialog
Additional field mappings can be

added
Click Save to save the mapping

file to reuse later
Check Open in MSP after Update
Click Update Now to update

Microsoft Project
PertMaster Ltd 2
The Microsoft Project file will be updated with the results of the analysis
If the option was selected, the file will be opening in Microsoft Project
To view the results, select the view to display from the toolbar or menu
PertMaster Ltd 2
Schedule Review
Pre-Analysis Check
Risk Identification
Analyze Risk Events
Risk Event plan
Response planning
PertMaster Ltd 2
Course Summary
Risk Analysis Theory

Distributions skewed towards minimum mean chance of hitting finish is
less than 50%
Parallel paths give rise to less chance of completing project on time
Schedule types: Most likely, Aggressive, Cautious and Scale to Fit
Key is to assess risk and uncertainty, to give realistic picture
Schedule Review
Schedule Check Report checks for scheduling best practices
Pre-analysis check (Duration Quick Risk & Tornado Graph) to further
verify schedule
Risk Identification
Risks can be modeled through Estimate Uncertainty and Risk Events
PertMaster Ltd 2
Course Summary
Develop Preliminary Model

Risk distributions can be imported from Primavera & MS Project
Templated Quick Risk provides a consistent method for apply risk
assessments that can then be saved and reused
Correlation can be measured and defined
Risk events can be modeled though Task Existence, Probabilistic
Branching, and the Risk Register
Task Existence is used for single activities, and Probabilistic
Branching is used for groups of activities
The Risk Register allows qualitative and quantitative assessment and
analysis
PertMaster Ltd 2
Course Summary
Preliminary Analysis and Review

Risk Analysis Options can be set through the More button
Risks from the Risk Register are included in the analysis by building an
impacted risk plan
Distribution Graph shows the results of the risk analysis
Tornado Graph shows project drivers (sensitivity & criticality)
Distribution Analyzer allows multiple result sets to be compared
Final Model and Report

The Risk Register can be used to model mitigation plans
P-Schedules are used to display risked-baselines to a given level of
confidence
Primavera and MS Project can be updated with the results of the
analysis
PertMaster Ltd 2
Additional Reference Material

Advanced concepts
Probabilistic Cash Flow

Modeling resource and cost projections
Probabilistic cash flow
Understand the full effect of risk / uncertainty

on cost
on schedule
on both cost and schedule together
Make sure analysis creates data

If option is grayed out, check
settings
PertMaster Ltd 2
Example: Probabilistic cash flow
Using Rocket sample with the penalty
Include the risks, pre-mitigation
Run the analysis
Create probabilistic cash flow graph
PertMaster Ltd 2
Uncertain spend curves - cumulative
PertMaster Ltd 2
Uncertain spend curves by period
PertMaster Ltd 2
Uncertain spend curves vs. deterministic
PertMaster Ltd 2
Uncertain spend curves football plot
PertMaster Ltd 2
Management Costs
Modeling LOE costs, incentives and LDs
Management Costs
There may be activities whose duration is dependent on the duration of

other activities in the schedule:
Project management
Site supervision
Site security
Equipment hire
These type of activities can be modeled using HAMMOCKS
PertMaster Ltd 2
Exercise: Management Costs (1 of 2)
An agency will be hired to help us advertise for, interview and hire staff
Insert a new activity

above Train staff
Change it to a hammock by typing h in duration
Link the hammock to Advertise for staff and
Hire Staff as shown below:
Right click to insert a new

activity:
PertMaster Ltd 2
Exercise: Management Costs (2 of 2)

In the Distribution graph, choose Employment Agency Hire
Click on the Duration tab
The duration distribution can be used to view the uncertainty on an activities

duration
Can add a labor resource to analyze the cost of the hammock
PertMaster Ltd 2
Damages
There are damages payable if the new store is not open within a specified
time of signing the lease
The amount of time we are likely to have to pay damages can be modeled
with a hammock
During the risk analysis the hammock can stretch to record the number of
days late the project is:
Hammock extends with project,

recording days of damages
PertMaster Ltd 2
Damages
The impact of LDs (liquidated damages) can be modeled.

E.g. costs associated with exceeding agreed contract dates in a project
PertMaster Ltd 2
Exercise: Modeling Damages
Add a finish milestone activity Damages start

Add a hammock activity Damages
Link the milestone to the hammock (Start-to-Start)
Link the Store ready for opening to the hammock (Finish-to-Finish)
Constrain the milestone to 10/Mar/08 on Task Details | Constraints tab,
using the Must Start On field.
PertMaster Ltd 2
Exercise: Damages histogram
Run risk analysis and view the duration distribution for the Damages task:
PertMaster Ltd 2
Exercise: Damages Calendar
Damages are going to be charged 7 days a week. Currently the Damages

activity is using a standard 5 day week calendar
Choose Damages and choose General tab in Task Details
Change the Calendar to 7 day
Re-run the risk analysis
PertMaster Ltd 2
Exercise: Restoring Critical Path
The critical path has been lost as the task Store ready for opening is no
longer the last task in the network
Double-click on the task Store ready for opening

Select the General tab and select Always Critical option
PertMaster Ltd 2
Exercise: Add penalty to Rocket
Model a penalty of $50,000 per day for late rocket delivery beyond 31st
December 2009.
What does the penalty distribution look like? And with risks?
PertMaster Ltd 2
Revenue Modeling
NPV and IRR
Revenue Modeling
Add a hammock to end of Rocket plan, Revenue.

Add the project finish milestone as a FS predecessor.
Set a Period end finish milestone, must start on 31/12/2012 this is when
we will count revenue until.
PertMaster Ltd 2
Revenue Modeling
Add a resource called REV for revenue, normal profile, at $50,000 per day.
Run Risk analysis to identify the chances of project being in profit

How does mitigation increase the chances of making a profit?
PertMaster Ltd 2
Conditional Branching
Modeling conditional impacts
Conditional Branching
Modeling specific project conditions and consequences

The logic is often simple, but cannot be expressed using normal project
planning logic
Examples:
If the cost of a task exceeds $10k, then an approval delay is incurred
If configuration selection slips into May, then we cannot buy off-theshelf
PertMaster Ltd 2
Example: Conditional branching macro
If configuration selection slips into May, then we cannot buy off-the-shelf
Select configuration
Option 1
Design fuel system
Option 2
1st May
Design fuel system
Option 3
The only option is option 3
Design frame
Design fuel system
PertMaster Ltd 2
If configuration selection slips into May, then we cannot buy off-the-shelf
Tools | Macros | Visual Basic Editor

Navigate to ThisPlan under the TrainingRocket plan.
Double-click on ThisPlan to open a window on the right
PertMaster Ltd 2
Choose the Plan from the (General) drop down at the top-left:
This adds a new default sub routine:
PertMaster Ltd 2
Use the drop down on the right to add the AfterRiskIteration sub routine:
PertMaster Ltd 2
In the Plan_AfterRiskIteration routine type this code:
The configuration selection tasks ID is A090
Option 3s ID
Note: In your plan this may be different
PertMaster Ltd 2
Check your code is as follows:
Close the Visual Basic editor. The code will be saved as part of the
PertMaster plan.
In PertMaster run risk analysis and step through some iterations. Check
conditional branch is operating as expected.
Note: The probabilistic branch can still operate when the conditional branch
is not selected.
PertMaster Ltd 2
Macro uses
Conditional branching
Modeling specific project conditions and consequences
Interfacing with other applications

Pulling in data automatically from other applications, e.g. Microsoft
Excel
Sending data to other applications, e.g. Oracle Projects
Producing custom reports

Automatically building reports, e.g. in Word or Excel
Enhancing PertMaster
PertMaster Ltd 2

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Schedule Risk Analytics with PertMaster

Improving Schedule Quality &

An introduction to schedule risk

Develop Preliminary Risk Model

Preliminary Analysis & Review

Final Model & Report

PertMaster Monte Carlo Simulation

Range forms an envelope

Project Risk Types

Reduction of risk exposure

Uncertainty vs. Risk Events

Schedule Risk Analysis Theory

Overview of traditional CPM

Predicts single completion date and cost

CPM with schedule risk analysis

Quantifies probability of completing project on time and budget

Better estimates for completion dates

Likelihood of the 10th December?

Exercise: Find out chance of meeting 10th December

Open TrainingDesignBuild_1Path.plan from the Samples folder

Risk | Run Risk Analysis

Save plan if requested

Keep default analysis options and click Analyze

Identify chance of completing on time

Exercise: Find out chance of meeting 10th December

Why is there only a 18% chance?

Distributions are skewed most likely is nearer to minimum than maximum

Effect of skewed distributions

What would be the chance of completing the project on time if each

Therefore: With skewed distributions the chance of hitting a schedule end

Effect of parallel paths

This project also completes on December 10

Is it more or less risky than single path?

Likelihood of December 10th finish?

Exercise: Parallel paths

Open TrainingDesignBuild.plan from the Samples folder

Risk | Run Risk Analysis

Save plan if requested

Keep default analysis options and click Analyze

Identify chance of completing on time

Schedule with parallel paths more or less risky?

Combined effect of skew and parallel paths

Most likely schedule

A most likely schedule has deterministic activity durations equal to the

Deterministic duration always most likely?

Schedules can be categorized as the following:

Lets look at 2, 3 and 4 in more detail

What type is your schedule?

Do you know whether the durations in your schedules are cautious,

Perhaps the worst type of schedule

Work expands to fill the time available for its completion

4. The Scale to Fit schedule

Activity durations are scaled so that project finishes on a predetermined

Schedule may then be most likely, aggressive or cautious

Why run a quantitative analysis?

To help create more realistic schedules

To improve awareness of project risk and uncertainty

To identify schedule assumptions

Communication: Develop a better understanding of the schedule amongst

PertMaster Risk Methodology

Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11

PertMaster Risk Methodology

Based on: PMBOK Chapter 11

Schedule Check Report