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Dollar Index (Weekly) anything different. The “b”-wave lasted 54 trading days, so an 80+ day “d” wave might be
nice “alternation.” So far, we’re only half way there, so perhaps this “d” wave persists until
early April. The minimum objective of this pattern would be 81.70, for 61.8% of “b.” A
decisive break of 81.70 would open the door to 83.71, the 78.6% of “b” target. Interestingly,
“b” the 61.8% retrace of “c” comes in at 83.78, so we may not see any strong selling until 83.70’s
89.62
(A)
“d”
Z
81.70 or 83.71?
y
x
w
x
x
w
77.69 “e”
“a” x (B)
y
74.33
z of “c”
There is compelling evidence that we’re in the tail end of a triangle (B)-Wave. The “a”-wave was an “elongated
flat.” These patterns exclusively show up as legs in a triangle. The “c”-wave is VERY difficult to classify as a “five,”
therefore it must be a correction, which supports a triangle idea. Lastly, the “c” was almost exactly 138.2% of “a”-
wave, which is a nice Fibonacci relationship required in a triangle.
w
-c- -a-
y
-b-
w
-a- x
-b-
The initial move up, the w-wave, is difficult to describe as anything other than a three wave
advance, thus it must be corrective. Because the subsequent correction did not retrace
more than 60%, it must be an x-wave. This is why I’m obliged to stick with this count. The
market is getting close to the top of a potential trend channel now, so some sort of
congestion, or pullback, should be expected. This idea of imminent congestion is give some
credence by the late Commitment of Traders for the Euro (see next page).
Move
Begins
200000
100000
50000
-50000
-100000
7/7/2008
1/7/2003
4/7/2003
7/7/2003
10/7/2003
1/7/2004
4/7/2004
7/7/2004
10/7/2004
1/7/2005
4/7/2005
7/7/2005
10/7/2005
1/7/2006
4/7/2006
7/7/2006
10/7/2006
1/7/2007
4/7/2007
7/7/2007
10/7/2007
1/7/2008
4/7/2008
10/7/2008
1/7/2009
4/7/2009
7/7/2009
10/7/2009
1/7/2010
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
y?
Dollar Index (180 minute) ~ “Alternative unorthodox model” -g-
Since the lows in mid-January, EVERY leg of this market has been “corrective” in nature. I
cannot easily count anyone of them as an “impulse.” When I see these sorts of things
develop, I’m forced to open my mind up to some of Neely’s concepts on “diametrics,” seven
legged corrective waves. If this is the pattern at hand, we should expect a 4-5 day f-wave -e-?
[19]
correction followed by a 4-5 g-wave concluding wave.
-c-
[32]
-f-
-a-
[17]
[19]
-d-
[21]
-b-
The move higher that began in 2008 was not an “impulsive” pattern--it was a corrective
intermediate (A) Wave. The model presented here has been my preferred count for a
“b” few months now. It looks like there is finally a completed wave down from 89.62. The
89.62
move best counts out as a “complex correction.” This suggests that we’re in the
(A) middle of an Intermediate (B) Wave triangle that still has two more waves before
completion. Once the (B) is complete, it should set the stage for a powerful (C).
-b-
REPRINTED 12/15/2009
“d”
-a-
x
-b-
-c- x “e”
w -b- (B)
“a” -a-
-a-
(2)
(4) -b-
-c-
y
-a- (1)
(5)
(3)
-c-
z of “c”
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Dollar Index (Daily) Wave “c” has ended and we’re are now in the middle of wave “d” of a
larger triangle. A good target for the “d” would be 81.70, which is
61.8% of the “b” wave. (As with most triangles, the alternating legs
will be related by a Fibonacci number.)
“b”
89.62
(A)
-b-
“d”
-a- 81.70
x
-b-
w/a
-c- -a- x
77.69 w -b-
“a” “e”
-c- x/b (B)
y -a-
74.33
-c-
REPRINTED 1/17/2009 z of “c”
This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical
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Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s interpretation of technical analysis. The
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