A

Presentation on

CAPACITY ANALYSIS OF BUS RAPID TRANSIT SYSTEM USING

MICROSIMULATION
Presented by
Anshuman Sharma
(13524005)
Under the guidance of
Dr. M. Parida
Professor

Dr. Ch.Ravi Sekhar

Senior Scientist
Transportation Planning Deptt.
CSIR-CRRI, New Delhi
Transportation Engineering Group
Deptt. of Civil Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology
Roorkee

OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
NEED OF THE STUDY
OBJECTIVES
METHEDOLOGY
STUDY AREA
DATA COLLECTION
DEVELOPMENT OF SIMULATION MODEL
CAPACITY ESTIMATION
POLICY MAKING PROCEDURE
CONCLUSIONS

NEED OF THE STUDY

 Capacity has an influence over speed, travel time and reliability of a public
transit
Therefore , it affects quality of service
It is very essential not only to know the present condition but also to
analyze whether the current system will be able to accomplish the demand
in future
Not much work has been done regarding ways to calculate capacity of
Transit lanes (for example BRT lanes)

OBJECTIVES

1.

To estimate bus lane capacity using empirical and simulation

model.

2.

To suggest modifications that can be incorporated in

TCQSM

3.

Comparison of both the models.

4.

Implementation of simulation model to schedule the

departure headway of BRT buses.

METHODOLOGY

Study Objectives
Input Parameters
a)Roadway
Geometrics
b)Bus headways
c)Dwell time

Input Parameters
a)Bus Stop
demand data
b)Bus Stop
location data

Data Collection and Extraction

Bus Lane Capacity Analysis

TCQSM Model

Simulation Model

Comparison of Both the Models

Implementation of Simulation model for Policy measure

STUDY AREA

Study Area: 6.1 km length of BRT transitway of Bhopal city

Bus Stop

Lalghati Intersection
(Signalized)

10

Sectional view of Bhopal BRTS

11

Important terms

Average Dwell Time

Failure Rate

Critical Bus Stop

Bus Lane Capacity

12

13

DATA COLLECTION

Primary Data
1. Bus volume data
2. Dwell time data
3. Video graphic survey
4. Signal phasing data

14

15

16

Video graphic BRT data

Time
interval
(minutes)

0-15

1530

3045

4560

6075

7590

90105

105120

120135

135150

150165

165180

180195

195210

210225

225240

Bus flow
per
fifteen
minutes

Projected
hourly
flow of
buses

20

16

20

12

28

24

16

28

16

12

16

20

16

16

20

12

50.95

42.54

49.64

43.21

38.47

50.09

40.81

47.41

37.69

Speed
(kmph)

38.9
51.71 48.66 47.26 44.65 52.12 43.82
8

17

Dwell time data

Bairagarh to Collectorate
(upstream)
Bus
Stop
number

Bus Stop Name

Dwell Time (s)

Collectorate to Bairagarh
(downstream)

Cv

Min.

Average

Max.

Dwell Time (s)

Cv

Min.

Average

Max.

1
2
3
4
5
6

Collectorate
VIP Guest House
Lalghati
Halalpura
Sundarvan Garden
Pump House

10.1
8.2
6
10.1
4.5
4.6

14.5
14.3
17.1
19.1
8.9
11.4

24.7
22.1
33.3
36.1
17.4
23.1

31.4 %
24.2 %
41.7 %
38.1 %
50 %
51.2 %

7
8.4
4.7
5.1
7.1
6.1

13
13.9
20.6
17.7
10.9
11.4

19.3
23.4
36.9
40.2
14.9
22.8

28.3 %
30.6 %
44.5 %
51.2 %
20.8 %
51.9 %

Sant Hirdaram Chouraha

4.8

12.9

22.2

45.5 %

4.9

7.4

13.2

42 %

8
9
10

Bairagarh
Chanchal Chouraha
Kali Mata Mandir

6.6
6
6

15.5
75
10.1

36.3
190
26.6

51.8 %
70.6 %
54.1 %

5
6.4
4.8

9.4
22.6
10.2

22.4
47.2
37.6

63.4 %
52 %
83.6 %

18

Signal Phasing Data

Name of the Intersection

No. of phases

Cycle length (s)

Lalghati

205

Direction

Red (s)

Green(s)

Amber(s)

Lalghati to Collectorate

110

90

19

Simulation Model
Advantage

The transportation system can be

modified as per our conditions

20

Methodology adopted for developing Simulation

21

Development of base network

22

Public Transit line and Public Transit stop

23

24

25

Vehicle parameters

Signal controls

26

Model Calibration
Speed Distribution of BRT buses

27

 Driver Behaviour Parameters ( Mehar et al. (2014); Yu et al. (2006))

28

Model Validation
Chi-square goodness-of-fit value between observed and simulated frequencies for
the BRT bus speeds
Error in average speeds of BRT buses
Geoffrey E. Havers (GEH) statistic

29

 The Chi-square statistic value evaluated was 8.06 and at 5 % level of

significance the Chi-square critical value was 9.49. Thus, Chi-square test
results indicate the acceptance of null hypothesis, which infers, there is no
difference between simulated and observed data at 5 % level of significance.

The observed average speed of BRT buses is 45.5 km/h against simulated
average speed of 45.16 km/h. The error between observed and simulated
speed is 0.7 % (<1 %) which is acceptable.

30

Comparison between modeled and observed traffic volume was made using Geoffrey E. Havers
(GEH) statistic. This used in traffic simulation models to compare two sets of traffic volume. The
formula for estimation GEH statistics is given in equation.
GEH = sqrt ((2 (M-C) ^2)/(M+C))

Where M is the traffic volume obtained from simulation model and C is the observed traffic volume

Average GEH
statistic calculated
was 1.4 (<5)

31

Views of the Simulation

32

CAPACITY ESTIMATION- SIMULATION

MODEL
CAPACITY ESTIMATION

Failure Rate (FR) approach

Speed Reduction (SR) approach

33

Failure Rate Approach

Cumulative Queue Delay
was observed at Critical bus
stop

Cumulative queue
delay is defined as the
total delay of all the
BRT buses waiting in
queue behind the buses
occupying the loading
areas.

Cumulative delay was

divided by 3600 to obtain
Failure Rate.

Failure Rate given as input

to TCQSM model to
calculate capacity

34

35

Speed Reduction Approach (

Jacques and levinson (1997)

Throughput of the BRT buses was

increased in the simulation model until the
reduction in speed is up to 20 % of the
average operating speed at existing
headway.

The discharge (bus/h)

observed at this condition is
the capacity (bus/h) of the bus
lane

To increase the throughput, headways of the

BRT buses were decreased as 75, 50, 25, 10, 5,
2, and 1 percent of the existing headway and
given as input in the simulation model.

Existing Headway of TR-1, SR-1, SR-5 and BRT TR-4 are 10, 15, 12, and 18 minutes

36

5% of
existing
headway

Limiting Discharge

37

Comparison of Simulation Models with TCQSM

model

38

Policy Making procedure

Simulation gives an advantage of

incorporating changes in the existing
transportation system and thereby analyzing
the system for different scenarios

Understanding the
relationship between
capacity and failure rate

Scheduling the headways

of the BRT buses

39

Critical bus stop capacity (lane capacity) values for different failure rate percentages

Interrupted

Interrupted

Uninterrupted

40

41

According to TCQSM, failure rate is implemented as a design value to estimate a lane capacity that

reflects a desired level of operational reliability.

Operating margin

Dwell time = 50 s
10 s

No Failure

Failure

42

Problem with setting Failure rate as design value

Implementation of a
design failure rate is less
achievable because of its
probabilistic nature.
Operating margin is
measured in seconds,
decision-makers can easily
understand and implement
it

43

Variation of critical bus stop capacity and

operating margin with failure rate

44

Variation of failure rate with respect to different percentages of existing

headway

45

Failure rate, critical stop capacity (lane capacity), and headway for different
desired operating margin
Headway (minutes)
Operating Margin (s) set
by decision makers

Achieved Failure rate (%)

80

6%

70

Critical Bus Stop

Capacity (bus/h)

TR-1

SR-5

SR-1

BRT
TR-4

38

11

16

13

19

10 %

40

10

15

12

18

60

13 %

45

10

55

15 %

48

Existing Headway of TR-1, SR-1, SR-5 and BRT TR-4 are 10, 15, 12, and 18 minutes

46

Conclusions Related to simulation model

Validation of simulation model was carried out based on three commonly adopted statistical tests
namely Chi-square, error in average speeds and GEH statistic. The error between observed and
simulated average speed was 0.7 %. The GEH statistic observed for Bhopal BRT transitway was 2.4.

The errors in estimated capacity between simulation model and TCQSM model were 4.8 % and
7.3 % for FR (failure rate) and SR (speed reduction) approaches, respectively. The result implies that
the FR approach is the most reliable simulation approach to estimate bus lane capacity.

The study reports that there is a linear relationship between critical stop capacity and failure rate.
The linear relationship between critical stop capacity (lane capacity) and failure rate can be
represented by Y = ax + b. Here, Y is critical stop capacity (bus/h), x is failure rate (%), and a,b
are constants with unit of bus stop capacity (bus/h). The constants and depend upon average dwell
time, coefficient of variation of dwell times, g/C ratio, number of loading areas at critical bus stop.

47

This study suggests the use of design operating margin against failure rate to achieve a desired level
of operational reliability. This is because the operating margin is more implementable parameter on
ground as compared to failure rate. In addition, setting up a particular designed operating margin,
may increase or constraint the existing capacity provided by the bus lane of BRT transitway

48

Recommendations

The TCQSM guidelines could be applied to other BRT systems of India, to quantify the capacity of
exclusive bus lane (homogeneous conditions).

This study recommends the use of video graphic survey to collect dwell time data at those bus
stops, where passenger demand is high.

The actual variation of dwell time could be studied and hence capacity estimation equations can be
further modified. Similar changes regarding variation of dwell time can be incorporated while
developing simulation model.

This study can be further extended to examine the effect of intersections on the bus flow and
thereby on lane capacity.

Although the simulation model developed in this study was precise; to further improve the
accuracy of the model for Indian BRT corridors in VISSIM, more calibration parameters (CC2 to
CC9) should be investigated.

49

Publications
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL
Authorship: Anshuman Sharma, M. Parida, Ch. Ravi Sekhar, Ankit Kathuria
Type of publication: Peer reviewed Journal
Referred publication: Yes
Title: Bus Lane Capacity Analysis: A Case Study of Bhopal Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS)
Journal and page numbers: Public transport: Planning and Operations (Submitted on: 4th March 2015,
Manuscript under review)
NATIONAL
Authorship: M. Parida, Anshuman Sharma, Ch. Ravi Sekhar
Type of publication: Souvenir
Title: BRTS: A Sustainable Public Transport Option
Journal and page numbers: 75th Annual Session of Indian Road Congress, January 18-22, 2015,
Bhubaneswar, India

50

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
Authorship: Anshuman Sharma, M. Parida, Ch. Ravi Sekhar, Ankit Kathuria
Type of publication: Conference
Refereed conference: Yes
Title: Capacity Analysis of BRTS: A Case Study of Bhopal BRTS
Journal and page numbers: 13th Transportation Practitioners meeting, July 1-2, 2015, London, UK
(Manuscript accepted)

NATIONAL CONFERENCE
Authorship: Anshuman Sharma, M. Parida, Ch. Ravi Sekhar, Ankit Kathuria
Type of publication: Peer reviewed conference
Refereed publication: Yes
Title: Bus Lane Capacity Estimation for Bhopal BRTS: An Empirical Approach
Conference: 3rd Conference of Transportation Research Group of India (CTRG), December 17-20, 2015,
Kolkata, India (Abstract accepted, Manuscript under review)

51

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Thank You

61

REFERENCES
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Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.
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Research Board, National Academics, Washington, D.C.

62

Chi square test for Normal Distribution:

H0 = Boarding lost time follow normal distribution
A = Boarding lost time do not follow normal distribution
Matlab Code:
BLT an array containing all the Boarding Lost Time Data is defined
[h,p,st] = chi2gof (BLT)
h= 1
p = 2.2156e-007
st = chi2stat: 30.6451
df: 2
O: [58 55 17 9 13]
E: [45.2458 35.8163 34.0771 22.4818 14.3790]
Since h=1 null hypothesis can be rejected at the 5% level of significance therefore Boarding lost
time data do not follow normal distribution.

63

Loading Area

Cumulative of Effective Loading Areas

1
2
3
4
5

1
1.75
2.45
2.65
2.75

64