The Nature of Probability

and Statistics
Statistical study

Outline

CHAPTER

concept

1-1 Descriptive and Inferential

Statistics
1-2 Variables and Types of Data
1-3 Data Collection and Sampling
Techniques
1-4 Observational and Experimental
Studies
1-5 Uses
and
Misuses
of Statistics
Does
my new
Mean
hours
of
This
chapter mainly introduces
new
product last (Excel)
WI girl babiesand Calculators
1-6concepts
Computers
and terminology, not much
daily sleeping

calculations.

longer than the

old one?

Slide 1

Are We Improving Our Diet?

YES or NO?
How would we show
that statistically?

Probability vs. Statistics

Probability
is interested in the analytical calculation of
probability
E.g., Rolling two dies. Probability of getting
one even number and the other multiple of 3?

Statistics
collect,

organize, summarize,
analyze, and draw conclusions
about the population using
data (or sample).

N= 30
n=3
3

Probability Concept:

What is probability?

Prof. Barlow (UCB)

o Probability does not exist!
o Time is discrete!

What do we mean by
o Prob ( on a die) = 1/6
o Prob ( living creature on Mars) = 1/2

Bayesian vs. Frequentist

o Prof. Barlow
o Prof. Ross and Prof. Wolff

Ch. 2

Professors at UCB

Barlow
5

Wolff

Ross

Statistics concept:

Sampling Study

Population (N)

Sampling

X1, X2, X3, , Xn

One sample (size n)

sample mean ()

population (true) mean ()

population (true) variance (2)

sample variance (s2)

Estimation
of or 2.

1-1 Descriptive and Inferential Statistics

Terminology

Variable: a characteristic or attribute

Data value = datum: value a variable took

Data=data set: set of datum

Random experiment: experiment when...

Random variable: variable whose value ...

E.g., Name of stat student = {John, Kim}

Height of stat student = {58, 61}
7

Descriptive statistics
What to show (mmm, ISU)
How to show

Inferential statistics
Estimation of mean/var
Statistical Test
Regression
UWM
heights
8

x1, x2, x3

Inferential Statistics

The difference of mean heights of UWM

students and Marquette students. (Estimation)

Support rate of Democrats in Wisconsin is

453%. (Estimation)

My medicine works faster than yours. (Test)

Smoking affects expected life? (Test)

I love you. (Test!)

Relationship between humidity and death rate.

(Regression)

We need a sampling study for these.

9

1-2 Variables and Types of Data

Data
Qualitative*

Quantitative

Categorical
(gender, residency
county)

Numerical,
Can be ranked

(*can/cannot
be ranked)

Discrete

Continuous

Countable
5, 29, 8000, etc.

Can be decimals
2.59, 312.1, etc.
10

Recorded Values and Boundaries

(of continuous variables)
Variable

Recorded Value

(value) Boundaries*

Length

15 centimeters (cm)

14.5-15.5 cm

Temperature

86 Fahrenheit (F)

85.5-86.5 F

Time

0.43 second (sec)

0.425-0.435 sec

Mass

1.6 grams (g)

1.55-1.65 g

* Conventionally this means [A,B)

11

Levels of Measurement
1.

Nominal categorical (names)

2.

Ordinal nominal, plus can be ranked (order)

3.

Interval ordinal, plus intervals are consistent

4.

Ratio interval, plus ratios are consistent,

true zero

12

Determine the measurement level.

Variable

Nominal Ordinal Interval

Ratio Level

Hair Color

Yes

No

Nominal

Zip Code

Yes

No

Nominal

Letter Grade

Yes

Yes

No

ACT Score

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Interval

Height

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Ratio

Age

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Ratio

Temperature (F)

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Interval

Ordinal

13

The measurement level

Group

Ranking
Bluman Chapter 1

Difference
14

Zero

1-3 Data Collection & Sampling Tech

Data collection methods
Telephone
cheap,

Mailed questionnaire
cheap,

candid / tone of voice, biased sample

anonymous / low resp rate, inapp. answers

Personal interview
expensive,

biased interviewer

Direct observation
Or perform
15 experiments.

Some Sampling Techniques

Random random number generator
Systematic every kth subject
Stratified divide population into groups
and takes samples from each group.
Cluster divide population into groups
select one group, and study it thoroughly.
Convenient mall surveys

16

1-4 Observational and

Experimental Studies

Observational study: the researcher merely

observes what happens.
Experimental study: the researcher
manipulates the independent (explanatory)
variables and checks their influences on the
dependent (outcome) variable.
A confounding variable influences the
dependent variable but cannot be separated
from the independent variable.
17

1-5 Uses and Misuses of Statistics

Suspect Samples
Is

the sample large enough?

Is the sample representative of the
population?

Family member? Volunteers? Men? With cell

phones? Classroom-convenience sampling?

Ambiguous Averages
What

particular measure of average was

used and why?
18

Changing the Subject

Are

different values used to represent the

same data?

Detached Statistics
One

third fewer calories.than what?

Implied Connections
Studies

suggest that some people may

understand what this statement means.
19

Misleading Graphs
Are

the scales for the x-axis and

y-axis appropriate for the data?

Faulty Survey Questions

Do

you feel that statistics teachers should

be paid higher salaries?
Do you favor increasing tuition so that
colleges can pay statistics
teachers higher salaries?

20

1-6 Computers and Calculators

Microsoft Excel
Microsoft Excel with MegaStat
TI-83/84
Minitab
SAS
SPSS

21

1-6 Computers and Calculators

Microsoft Excel Statistics Menu

=average(.)
Home > Auto Sum >
Home > Auto Sum > More Functions >
Statistical
Formula > Insert function >

If needed, insert Add-Ins: File > Options >

Add-Ins > Excel Add-Ins > Analysis Tool Pack
(p. 24)
22

Yuna Kim
Gold medalist in Vancouver 2010
Winter Olympics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=6uLhN1jH6uo

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