Food Shortage

Supply VS Demand
Muhammad Abdullah

Today
The worlds population surpassed six billion in
October, 1999 (6.2 today), and grows by nearly
80 million per year (approximately the
population of Germany).
Ninety-seven percent of all population growth
is occurring in the poorest parts of the world.
By 2015, 23 cities will have more than 10
million inhabitants; 19 of them will be in
developing countries.

The 6 Ps
Major factors:
Population
Prosperity
Productivity
Pollution
Interplay of these will determine:
Price of food
Humanitys hope to influence the
Jeffrey Sachs, Director of
UN Millennium
Development Project

future:

Policy

Imbalanced consumption vs.

population

20% of the global population consumes

70% of its material resources and
possesses 80% of the wealth. Source:
World Wildlife Fund

The majority of this 20% in centered in

Canada, USA, Saudi Arabia, Australia,
and Japan. Source: World Wildlife Fund

Food Security
Food security:
Access by all people at all
times to enough food for
an active, healthy life

Lack of food security is

caused by lack of
purchasing power

Food Security
Depends on
Number in

household
Ages
Sex
Working status
Health status
Pregnancy
Lactation

World Food Needs

Population and income are the major
factors in determining food
consumption
1. World food demand is growing at a
rate of 2% per year 1.8% of this
because of population increase and .2%
because of rising incomes

Food issues around the World

In 75 nations, per capita food production has
declined over the past 15 years. (UN
Development Program, Human Development
Report 1998.) Why?

Among the larger countries where shrinking

cropland per person threatens future food

security are Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Pakistan, all
countries with weak family planning programs.

For example, as Nigeria's population goes from

111 million today to a projected 244 million in
2050, its grainland per person will shrink from
0.15 hectares to 0.07 hectares.

Food issues around the World continued

Pakistan's projected growth from 146 million today to 345

million by 2050 will shrink its grainland per person from

0.08 hectares at present to 0.03 hectares, an area scarcely
the size of a tennis court.

Countries where grainland per person has shrunk to 0.03

hectares, such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, each
import some 70 percent of their grain.

More than three-quarters of a billion people suffer from

malnutrition.

50 Years From Now

Same increase in population (60%)

Less increase in income (28%)
Increase in per capita food demand of 4%
Total food demand increases 70%
Total food supply will decline 6%

15% decrease in ag land

Small increase in
yields/hectare

Orphanage, Nicaragua

Price of food rises 110%

Undernutrition increases substantially

Increasing the Worlds Food

Supply..How?
A.

Crop Yields
1.

Great disparity between countries

a. Wheat Production:
Pakistan = 2.1 metric tons per hectare
Germany = 6.9 metric tons per hectare

b. Corn Production:
India = 1.6 metric tons per hectare
U.S. = 7.1 metric tons per hectare
c. How could production in these countries be
increased?

1. Green Revolution 1970s And

Hybrid Crops
The introduction of high
yielding varieties of
wheat and rice in Asia
doubled or tripled
yields but with
environmental and
social consequences

Genetic Manipulation: GMOs

(Genetically Modified
Organisms)
a. Increased yields
b. Decrease the need for pesticides
c. Neutracueticals
d.

Frankenfoods

e.

Environmental consequences

Land Area
1. Land surface = 25% of the earth, the rest
is water, polar icecaps
2. Africa and South America have the
largest areas of potentially arable land.
a. Africa currently farms 20% of its potentially
arable land.
b. South America farms 10%

Land Area continued

3. The U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand have about 1
billion more acres that could be farmed.
a. Land will only be farmed if it becomes economical to do
so
b. Water availability plays a large role in determining farm
lands productive capacity
c. Ecosystem degradation and environmental concerns
4. World population increased by 30% from 1975 1990, but
land area used to support that population increased only
3.6%

Price of Food
Depends on

Ethiopia market

Quantity produced
Population demand
Income demand
Taste preference demand
Government
Price controls
Tariffs
Subsidies
Taxes

Looking into the Future

A. As economic growth occurs, populations transition from
agricultural (high fertility, large families, high mortality) to
industrial (the worlds richest countries have stable or
shrinking populations)
1. Fact World birth rates are decreasing but the
population is increasing because people are living longer
B. Crucial question How will food issues be dealt with in the
future? Political leverage, Economic Control?
C. Developing uncultivated land i.e. Rainforests, tends to lead
to environmental degradation and loss of species variability
D. Raising crop and livestock yields - technology

Imbalanced consumption vs.

population