Chapter

PROBABILITY

CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY
In the study of probability, we shall consider
activities for which the outcome cannot be
predicted with certainty.
EXPERIMENT
- Study of probability which shall be
consider activities
for which the outcome
cannot be predicted with certainty.

SAMPLE SPACE
- Set of all possible outcomes
SAMPLE POINT
- Individual element or outcome
in a sample space.

Example 1

Consider the activity of rolling a die.

This activity has six possible outcomes, that is
1,2,3,4,5, and 6. thus,
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Any of the number 1 to 6 is a sample point of S. we
can say that there are six sample points. If we let A
be the event of getting an odd number and B an
event of getting a perfect square, then

A= (1,3,5) and

B= (1,4)

Note that the elements of A are elements of the

sample space S. The number of sample points in a
sample space S, an events A and B are usually
written as n(S), n(A), and n(B) respectively. Thus,

n(S) = 6,

n(A) = 3,

n(B) = 2

Example 2
If a pair of dice is rolled, then determine the number
of sample points of the following:
a. Sample space
b. Event of getting a sum of 5
c. Event of getting a sum of at
most 4

Solution to Example 2
a. Let n1 be the number of possible outcomes for
the first die
Let n2 be the number of possible outcomes for
the second die
n(S) = n1 * n2
=6*6
= 36

Solution to Example 2
b. Let A be the event of getting a sum of 5. The
number of sample points in A can be listed. Thus,
A = (1,4), (4,1), (2,3),(3,2)
n(A) = 4

Solution to Example 2
c. Let B be the event of getting a sum of at most 4.
Then,
B = (1,1), (1,2), (1,3),(2,1), (2,2), (3,1)
n(B) = 6

Example 3
A box contains 6 red and 4 green balls. If three balls
are drawn from the box, then determine the number
of sample points of the following:
a. The sample space
b. The event of getting all red balls
c. The event of getting 1 red and 2
green balls

Solution to Example 3
Let S be the event of drawing 3 balls from the box
Let A be the event of getting all red balls
Let B be the event of getting 1 red and 2 green balls
a. n(S) = 10C3 =

10!

= 120

(10 3)! 3!
b. n(A) = 6C3 * 4C0 = 6! * 4!
(6 3)!3! (4 0 )!0!
c. n(B) = 6C1 * 4C2 = 6! * 4!
(6 1)!1! (4 2)!2!

= 20
= 36

PROBABILITY
Is the chance that an event will happen. The
probability of an event A denoted by P(A) refers
to a number between 0 and 1 including the
values 0 and 1. This can be expressed as a
fraction, as a decimal or as a percent. When we
assign a probability of 0 to event A, it means that
it is impossible for event A to occur. When event
A is assigned a probability of 1, then we say that
event A will really occur.

The probability of occurrence plus the

probability of non occurrence of an event is
always equal to 1. Therefore, in a given
observations or experiment, an event must occur
or not. If we let A' be the event that A will not
occur, then we shall say that

P(A) + P(A') = 1
From the above formula, we can have
P(A) = 1 P(A')
Or
P(A') = 1 P(A)

EQN 1
EQN 2
EQN 3

Example 4
A student in a statistics class was able to
compute the probability of passing the subject to
be equal to 0.46. Based on this information, what
is the probability that he is not going to pass the
subject?
Let A be the event of passing the subject
Let A' be the event of not passing the subject
Using EQN 3 we have
P(A') = 1 P(A) = 1 0.46
P(A') = 0.54

THREE APPROACHES OF
PROBABILTY
1. Subjective approach
- The probability of an event is
determined based on an individual's experience
or perception. This approach does not require
extensive data to support one's judgement but
simply expresses the strength of one's belief
with regard to uncertainties involved.

THREE APPROACHES OF
PROBABILTY
2. Probability of the Relative
Frequency
- the second approach of interpreting the
probability of an event is through the
determination of the relative frequency of
occurrence.

Example 5
Records show that 100 out of 1500 students
who entered in a certain college leave the school
due to financial problem. What can we say about
the probability that a freshmen entering this
college will leave the school due to financial
reason?
Let A be the event that a freshmen will leave the
college due to financial reason. Then based on
the past records, the relative frequency shall be
P(A) = 100/1,500 = 0.0667 or 6.67%

Example 6
Records show that in a certain university, 350
out of 1,750 graduates who took the CPA
examination were able to pass. What can we say
about the possible performance of the future
graduates of this university who will take the
CPA examination?
Let A be the event that a graduates of this
university who will take the examination will
pass. Then, by using the relative frequency
occurrence, we have
P(A) = 350/1,750 = 0.2 or 20%

THREE APPROACHES OF
PROBABILTY
3. Classical Probability
- In this approach, an experiment shall be
performed. The possible outcome can be
predicted even before the performance of the
experiment. One of the assumptions in the
classical probability is that the probability of
each sample point must be equal.

The computing formula for the classical

probability of an event A is given by
P(A) =
n(A)
EQN 4
n(S)
where:
n(A) represents the number of sample
points in event A
n(S) represents the number of sample
points in sample space S

Example 7
If a coin is tossed, what is the probability of
getting a head?
S = {head, tail}
Hence, we may say that n(S) = 2
If we let A be the event of getting head,
then
A = {head} and n(A) = 1
Hence, by applying the classical probability, we
have
P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 1/2

Example 8
If two coins are tossed, what is the probability of
getting both heads?
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Hence, we may say that n(S) = 4
If we let A be the event of getting two heads,
then
A = {HH} and n(A) = 1
Hence, by applying the classical probability,
we have
P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 1/4

Example 9
If a die is rolled, what is the probability of getting
a. an odd number?
b. an even number?
c. a perfect square?
Let S be the sample space. Then,
S = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) and n(S) = 6
Let A be the event of getting an odd number.
Let B be the event of getting an even number.
Let C be the event of getting a perfect square.

Solution to Example 9
Then,
A = (1, 3, 5) and n(A) = 3
B = (2, 4, 6) and n(B) = 3
C = (1, 4) and n(C) = 2
Therefore;
a. P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 3/6 =
b. P(B) = n(B)/n(S) = 3/6 =
c. P(C) = n(C)/n(S) = 2/6 = 1/3

Example 10
A box contain has 3 red, 4 green, and 6 yellow
balls. If a ball is drawn from a box, what is the
probability that
a. it is a green?
b. it is not red?
S = 13 A is a green ball
B is red ball
a. P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 4/13
b. P(B) = 1 P(B) = 1 3/13 = 10/13

Example 11
If a pair of dice is rolled, what is the probability
of getting
a. a sum of 6?
b. a sum of less than 13?
c. a sum of 13?
d. a sum of at least 10?
And;
a. P(A) = 5/36
b. P(B) = 36/36 = 1
c. P(C) = 0/36 = 0
d. P(D) = 6/36 = 1/6

Example 12
A box contains 7 red, and 6 green balls. If two
balls are drawn from the box, what is the
probability of getting
a. both green?
b. 1 red and 1 green?
S = 13!/(13 2)!2! = 78
a. n(A) = 6!/(6 2)!2! * 7!/(7 0)!0! = 15
therefore: P(A) = 15/78 = 5/26
b. n(B) = 7!/(7 1)!1! * 6!/(6 1)!1! = 42
therefore: P(B) = 42/78 = 7/13

ADDITION RULE
If we let A and B be the events then these two
events can be combined to form another event.
The event that at least one of the events A or B
will happen is denoted by A U B. The event that
both events A and B will occur is denoted by A
B. The probability of A U B denoted by P(AUB) is
given by.
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB)

EQN 5

Using classical probability, EQN 5 shall

become

P(AUB) = n(A) + n(B) -

n(AB)

ADDITION RULE
Two events A and B are said to be mutually
exclusive if they can not occur both at the same
time. This implies that the occurrence of event A
excludes the occurrence of event B and vice
versa. Hence, n(AB) = O. This follows that
P(AB) = O then EQN 5 will be reduced to
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)

EQN 7

Example 13
Consider the activity of rolling a die and let A, B,
and C be the events of getting an odd number,
an even number, and a perfect square
respectively. Determine the probability of getting
a.) an odd or an even number.
b.) an even number and a perfect square

Solution to Example 13
The sample space is S = {1,2,3,.........6}, thus
n(S) = 6
The elements of the three events are given
below.
A= {1,3,5},
n(A) = 3
B= {2,4,6}
n(B) = 3
C= {1,4}
n(C) = 2

Solution to Example 13
a.) Notice that events A and B do not have a
common sample point. Hence, these events
cannot occur both at the same time. So, we can
say that the two events are mutually exclusive
events. Using EQN 7, we have
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
= n(A)/n(S) + n(B)/n(S)
= 3/6 + 3/6
= 6/6
=1

Solution to Example 13
b.) events B and C have a common sample point.
This implies that the two events can occur both
at the same time. Hence, we may say that two
events are non mutually exclusive events.
Using EQN 6, we have
P(BUC) = P(B) + P(C) P(BC)
= 3/6 + 3/6 1/6
= 4/6
= 2/3

Example 14
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52
playing cards. Find the probability of getting
a. an ace or a king
b. a king or a face card
c. a black or a queen

Solution to Example 14
S = 52
a. Let A be the event of getting an ace
Let B be the event of getting a king
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
= n(A)/n(S) + n(B)/n(S)
= 4/52 + 4/52
= 8/52
= 2/13

Solution to Example 14
S = 52
b. Let C be the event of getting a face card
Let B be the event of getting a king
P(BUC) = P(B) + P(C) P(BC)
= n(B)/n(S) + n(C)/n(S) n(BC)/n(S)
= 4/52 + 12/52 4/52
= 12/52
= 3/13

Solution to Example 14
S = 52
c. Let D be the event of getting black card
Let E be the event of getting a queen
P(DUE) = P(D) + P(E) P(DE)
= n(D)/n(S) + n(E)/n(S) n(DE)/n(S)
= 26/52 + 4/52 2/52
= 28/52
= 7/13

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Conditional probability is the probability that
a second event will occur if the first event
already happened. Symbolically, conditional
probability is written as P(A l B) and is read as
the probability of event A given that event B has
occurred. The computing formula for the
conditional probability of A given B is given by
P(A l B) = P(AB)/P(B),
EQN 8
provided P(B) is not equal to 0

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
In conditional probability, the occurrence of
event B specifies the new sample space for
which we want to calculate the probability of that
part of A that is contained in B.
By using classical probability,
P(AB) = n(AB)/n(S)
and
P(B) = n(B)/n(S)
Thus, EQN 8 shall become
P(A l B) = n(AB)/n(S)
n(B)/n(S)
P(A l B) = n(AB)/n(B)
EQN 9

Example 15
Let P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.5, P(AB) = 0.3
Find the value of the following:
a.) P(A l B)
b.) P(B l A)
a.) P(A l B) = P(AB)/P(B) = 0.3/0.5 = 0.6
b.) P(A l B) = P(AB)/P(A) = 0.3/0.4 = 0.75

Example 16

A die is rolled. If the result is an even number,

what is the probability that is a perfect square?

Solution to Example 16
Let A be the event of getting a perfect square.
Let B be the event of getting an even number.
Let AB be the event of getting a perfect square and
an even number
Thus,
P(A l B) = n(AB)/n(B)
= 1/3

Example 17

Suppose that P(A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.3, and

P(AB) = 0.2. Given that the outcome of the
experiment belongs to B, what is then the
probability of A?

Solution to Example 17
See diagram below. Note that we are defining
a new sample space from S to B. Of the
probability P(B) equals 0.3, the value 0.2
corresponds to P(AB). Hence,
(AB) (B)
(A)
0.1
P(A l B) = P(AB)/P(B)
= 0.2/0.3
= 0.7

0.2

Example 18
A card is drawn from a deck of 52 playing cards.
Given that the card drawn is a face card, then
what is the probability of getting
a. a king?
b. a spade?
c. a red card?

Solution to Example 18
Let A be the event of getting a face card
Let B be the event of getting a king
Let C be the event of getting a spade
Let D be the event of getting a red card
a. P(B l A) = n(BA)/n(A)
= 4/12
= 1/3

Solution to Example 18
b. P(C l A) = n(CA)/n(A)
= 3/12
=
c. P(D l A) = n(DA)/n(A)
= 6/12
= 1/2

Example 19
A vendor has 35 balloons on strings. Twenty
balloons are yellow, 8 are red, and 7 are green. A
balloon was selected at random and sold. Given
that the balloon selected and sold is yellow, what
is the probability that the next balloon selected
and sold at random is also yellow?
a. P(Y2 l Y1) = 19/34

Example 20
A box contains 5 red and 4 blue balls. Two balls
are drawn in succession with replacement from
the box. What is the probability of getting
a. red on the first draw?
b. red on the second given that it is red on
the first?

Solution to Example 20
a. P(R1) = n(R1)/n(S)
= 5/9
b. P(R2 R1) = n(R2)/n(S)
= 5/9

Example 21
A box contains 6 black and 5 yellow marbles.
Two marbles are drawn from the box in
succession without replacement. What is the
probability of getting
a. black on the first draw?
b. black on the second draw given that it is
black on the first draw?
c. black on the second draw given that it is
yellow on the first draw?

Solution to Example 21
a. P(B1) = n(B1)/n(S)
= 6/11
b. P(B2 B1) = 5/10
=
c. P(B2 Y1) = 6/10
= 3/5

MULTIPLICATION RULE
We have shown that the formula for the
conditional probability is given by
P(A l B)=P(AB)/P(B) ,where P(B) is not equal to
0
If the formula above is cross multiplied and
solved for P(AB), then we have
P(AB) = P(A l B) P(B)

EQN 10

MULTIPLICATION RULE
If events A and B are independent events,
then we say that
P(A l B) = P(A) or P(B l A) = P(B)
Then EQN 10 shall become
P(AB) = P(A) P(B)

EQN 12

EQN 11

Example 22

A box contains 3 red and 8 black balls. If two

balls are drawn in succession without
replacement, what is the probability that
a.) both are red?
b.) the first ball is red and the second ball is
black?

Solution to Example 22
Let R1 be the event of getting red on the first draw
Let R2 be the event of getting red on the second
draw
Let B2 be the event of getting black on the second
draw
a.) The probability of getting both red means the
probability of getting a red on the first draw and red
also on the second draw. Thus,
P(R1R2 ) = P(R1) P(R2 l R1)
= P(R1R2 )
= 3/11*2/10 = 6/110 = 3/55

Solution to Example 22
b) The probability of getting red on the first draw and
black on the second draw is
P(R1R2) = P(R1) P(B2lR1)
P(R1R2 ) = 3/11*8/10
= 24/110
= 12/55

Example 23
If a die is thrown twice, what is the probability of
getting both 6?
Let A1 be the event of getting a 6 on the first throw
Let A2 be the event of getting a 6 on the second
throw
P(A1A2) = P(A1) P(A2)
= 1/6 * 1/6
= 1/36

Example 24

Box A contains 5 blue and 4 white balls. Box B

has 2 blue and 5 white balls. One ball is drawn at
random from box A and transferred to box B
without looking at the color of the ball that is
drawn. What is the probability of drawing a blue
ball from box B?

Solution to Example 24
Let B1 be the event of drawing a blue ball from box A
Let B2 be the event of drawing a blue ball from box B
Let W1 be the event of drawing a white ball from box A
Let (B1B2 ) be the event of getting a blue ball from
box A and a blue ball from box B
Let (W1B2 ) be the event of getting a white ball from
box A and a blue ball from box B

Solution to Example 24
P(B2) = P(B1B2 ) U P(W1B2 )
= P(B1B2 ) + P(W1B2 )
P(B2) = P(B1) P(B2 B1) + P(W1) P(B2 W1)
= 5/9 * 3/8 + 4/9 * 2/8
= 15/72 + 8/72
= 23/72

Thank
you!!!