Development of Reflectivity (Z) and Rainfall Intensity (R) Equation For Short Term Rainfall Forecasting For Northern Region of Peninsular Malaysia

MAHYUN AB WAHAB P-WD 0163
Development of Reflectivity (Z) And Rainfall

Intensity (R) Equation for Short Term Rainfall
Forecasting For Northern Region Of Peninsular
Malaysia
Mahyun Ab Wahab
(PWD-0163)
Supervisor : Prof Hj Ismail Abustan
Co Supervisor : Assoc Prof Dr Rozi Abdullah
Universiti Malaysia Perlis - Universiti Sains
Malaysia
Presentation Structure
Research Stage
Introduction
Problem Statement
Objectives of research
Data Collection
Scope of Works
Result
Discussion
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Research Stage
Literature
Review
Develop New
Power Law
Equation
Between
Reflectivity
And Rainfall
Intensity
- DONE!
Short Term
Rainfall
Forecasting
- On Going

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Introduction
Weather forecast is one of the most
important things to consider before
making a decision such as planning a
holiday, festival or gathering
Rain gauge and weather radar is a tool
to measure rainfall depth.

Malaysia
Cont..
But, weather radar cannot measure the
rainfall depth directly as oppose to rain
gauge.
Therefore,
Power
Law
Equation
between reflectivity (Z) and rainfall
intensity (R), known as Z-R relationship
(Z=ARb), is commonly used to assess the
rainfall depth using radar
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Problem Statement
Short term forecasting (that is, up to 12
hours ahead) in the tropic has long been
recognized as one of the most difficult
prediction problems in meteorology
(Matthew P. Van Horne et. al, 2003)
The demand for rainfall forecasts with

high spatial and temporal resolution
has increased recently (Van Horne, M. P et. al, 2003)
Malaysia
Cont..
Application of radar-rainfall forecasting is
not new, but in Malaysia application of
radar-rainfall is still at the infant stage
(Ramli. S et. al, 2011).
In Malaysia, weather radar plays an important

role in meteorological applications especially in
aviation safety and flood warnings through
monitoring of rainfall intensity (Adam, M. K.
M. & Moten, 2012)
Malaysia
Cont..
Marshall and Palmer (1948) had developed
Power Law Equation Between Reflectivity (Z)
And Rainfall Intensity (R) (known as Z-R
relationship) (Z=200R1.6).
However, it is still being used by many countries
such as Thailand, Australia, Libya and Malaysia
(Ramli. S et. al, (2011), Adam, M. K. M. & Moten, (2012), Mapiam, P. P. & Sriwongsitanon, N.
2008, Seed, A. et. al (2002), Ali, K. S. & Said, M. H (2009)
Therefore, this study has a tendency to recheck

the classical work
Malaysia
Cont..
Number of disasters in ASEAN
from 2001-2009:
1. Flood 213 (13% of world total)
2. Storm 132 (13%)
3. Earthquake 42 (15%)
4. Landslide 42 (24%)
5. Epidemic 36 (6%)
6. Volcanic eruption 15 (26%)
7. Drought 12 (7%)
8. Wildfire 7 (5%)
Affect 584
million or
nearly 1/10
of world
population
Source: http://www.emdat.be
Malaysia
Objectives of research
1
2
To justify the used of Marshall-Palmer

Equation in Malaysia
To develop new Z-R relationship from Northern

Region data (Perlis rain gauge & Alor Star Radar
To forecast short term rainfall using the

propose Z-R relationship for Kangar, Perlis.

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Data Collections
Data
Collectio
ns
Rain
gaug
e
data
Radar
reflectivi
ty data

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Radar reflectivity data

Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD)
responsible to collect reflectivity data.
REFLECTIVIT
Y DATA
Volumetric data
(contain 15 PPI
scans at 0.5, 1.2,
1.9, 2.7, 3.5, 4.7,
6.0, 7.5, 9.2, 11.0,
13.0, 16.0, 20.0,
25.0 and 32.0
degree elevation)
Composite Plan
Position
Indicator,
CompPPI
(make from 2 to
4 PPI scan)

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Cont..
Station number for Alor Star Radar is 267 and
located at 6.183N, 100.408E, with 4 meter
altitude and using S-band radar.
S-band radar has longer wave length
compare with C-band or X-band radar, which
means attenuation, is not a problem for the Sband radar. S-band radar has a maximum
horizontal coverage of 480km [Adam, M. K. M. & Moten,
(2012)].

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Cont..
In this study, the reflectivity data used is
CompPPI data which are derived at 10
minutes interval using radar beam with three
different angles (0.5, 0.8, and 1.1).
Reflectivity data collected from Alor Star
Radar was chosen for an investigation of the
Z-R relationship since the study area is in
Perlis and close to the radar location.
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Cont..
Figure 1a: Location of seven radars in Peninsular Malaysia; and

Figure 1b: Alor Star Radar scans ranges [Adam, M. K. M. & Moten,
(2012)].
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Radar operating principle
Working principle of Doppler weather radar (Source: www.hko.gov.hk, 2013)

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Cont..
Reflectivity data were captured every 2km
by 10 range bin and there is no data for the
first 4 km. Data collected every 10 minutes
Reflectivity data is in ASCII format and it
contains the reflectivity values measured in
decibels (dBZ).
The 16 level encoding systems employ a
deviation system to compress the data
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Read the radar data

Step 1
Get the radar data ASCII format
Step 2
Using the reference table to

get the video level
Step 3
Using the rain table to convert

the video level to signal strength
and rain rate
** (Currently MMD using Marshall-Palmer Equation)

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Example
A4v2XJ 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 5 9
= A
4
v
2
X
J
Example :
Level video =
2
Signal
Strength =
23 dBZ
dBZ = 10
log10 (Z)
23 = 10 log10
(Z)
Z = 199.53
mm6/mm3
Z = 200R1.6
R = 1.6
(199.53/200)
R = 1 mm/hour

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Rain gauge data

Rain gauge data is provided by
Department of Irrigation and Drainage
Malaysia (DID).
Rainfall data were derived according to
time interval of radar which is in 10
minutes interval.
The available data collected at 14 rainfall
stations were used for the calibration of
the Z-R relationship.
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Cont..
Fig. 2: Rainfall station in Perlis

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Short Term Rainfall Forecasting

Using New Power Law Equation
Between Reflectivity (Z) And
Rainfall Intensity (R) For
Northern Region Of Peninsular
Malaysia
Scope of work
Phase 1 : How to develop

new Z-R relationship for
Northern Region of
Peninsular Malaysia ?
Phase 2 : How to forecast

rainfall using new Z-R
relationship for Northern
Region of Peninsular
Malaysia ?

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5W1H in developint the new Z-R

relationship
What ? - To determine the best value of parameters
A and b, calibration and validation process were
done.
How ? - According to Mapiam, P. P. & Sriwongsitanon,
N. 2008, Z-R relationship is normally derived using
raindrop size distribution (DSD) or optimization
(regression techniques) method.
Since the Disdrometer (a device that measures the
size distribution of raindrops) in Malaysia was not
available, the optimization method is then applied
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Methodology : Phase 1
*(Mapiam, p. P. & Sriwongsitanon, n. 2008) (Seed, a., et. al. 2002)
Step 1 - Parameter A and b were fixed at 200

and 1.6 respectively. Z=200R1.6 were used to
convert reflectivity
Step 2 - Estimated radar rain rate was then
accumulated into daily radar rainfall in
millimetre (mm). Same goes to gauge rainfall.
Mean gauge rainfall and mean radar rainfall of
each day were estimated using these
equations
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Cont..
Where,
Gj is the mean gauge rainfall on day j;
gij is gauge rainfall at station i and on day j; and
N is the total rain gauge numbers.
Rj is the mean radar rainfall on day j;
rij is radar rainfall accumulation computed using
the Z=200R1.6, for day j
N is the total rain gauges.
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Cont..
From the literature, initial parameter A can be
determined from the following equation.
Where ;
A1 is the new multiplicative term A in Z-R relationship,
A0 is the initial parameter A,
m is the gradient of the regression line between the predicted
and the observed rainfall obtained from the standard Z-R
relationship (Z=200R1.6), and
b is the exponent in the Z-R relationship.
Malaysia
Statistical measures
Four statistical measures recommended by Mapiam,
P. P. & Sriwongsitanon, n. (2008) , Seed, A., et. al.
(2002) ] were using to compared estimated mean radar
rainfall and mean gauge rainfall as stated below
Mean error (ME),
Mean absolute error
(MAE),
Root mean square error
(RMSE),
Bias,

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RESULTS :Scatter plot of mean radar rainfall based

on the relationship Z=200R1.6 and mean gauge rainfall
f(x) =
R = 0
50
45
40
35
Gauge Rainfall (mm)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
10
15
20
25
30
Radar Rainfall (mm)
35
40
45

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50
Time series plot of mean gauge rainfall and

radar rainfall using Marshall-Palmer Equation
Z=200R1.6
Marshall-Palmer Equation Z=200R1.6
Mean Gauge Rainfall
45
40
Mean
35 Rainfall (mm)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Date

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Cont..
From the equation y = 2.4765x + 4.8745
The m value is equal to 2.4765 which is
the value of the slope gained from
previous Figure
From the calculation done, the initial
parameter A is equal to 46.9. 50
Ao = 200
m = 2.4765
b = 1.6
Malaysia
Scatter plot of mean radar rainfall based on the

relationship Z=40R1.6 and mean gauge rainfall for
calibrated event
50
45
Mean Gauge
Rainfall (mm)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Mean Radar Rainfall (mm)

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Time series plot of mean gauge rainfall and

radar rainfall using the relationship Z=40R1.6
Mean Radar Rainfall Z=40R1.6
50
45
40
35
Mean Rainfall (mm)

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Date

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Comparisons Of The Statistical Measures Gained

From The Different Z-R Relationships
Statistica
Z=
l
200R1.6
Measures
ME (mm)
MAE
(mm)
RMSE
(mm)
BIAS
(mm)
Z=
40R1.6
Z=
50R1.6
Z=
30R1.6
15.48
2.69
5.48
-1.515
15.48
3.75
5.73
5.425
17.43
7.06
8.51
7.24
0.54
0.89
0.77
1.063

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VALIDATION : Time series plot of mean gauge

rainfall and radar rainfall using the relationship Z =
40R1.6 comparing with Marshall-Palmer equation
(Z=200R1.6)
Z=40R1.6
Mean Gauge Rainfall (G')
45
40
Mean35Rainfall (mm)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Date

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Statistical Result For Validation Process

Using
Z = 40R1.6
Statistical
Measures
Z = 40R1.6
ME (mm)
2.65
MAE (mm)
3.29
RMSE (mm)
3.81
BIAS (mm)
0.85

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Scatter plot of mean radar rainfall and mean gauge

rainfall based in the relationship Z=40R1.6 and
Z=200R1.6
R = 0
Z = 40R1.6
Z = 200 R1.6
Linear (Z = 40R1.6)
Linear (Z = 200 R1.6)
Line 1:1
40
R = 0.94
35
30
Gauge Rainfall (mm)
25
20
15
10
5
0
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Radar Rainfall (mm)

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Conclusio
n
Marshall-Palmer Equation could not be
used in Malaysia especially in high
intensity rainfall
So, the development of
new Z-R
relationship for better rainfall estimation is
essential

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Forecast rainfall using new Z-R

relationship
What ? Short term rainfall forecasting using
radar data
How ? Linear extrapolation of the centroids
of feature of rainfall cells or cross correlation
techniques applied to radar rainfall fields

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References
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
ADAM, M. K. M. & MOTEN, S. Rainfall Estimation from Radar Data.

Research Publication No. 6/2012, Malaysian Meteorological Department
(MMD), Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MOSTI)
ALI, K. S. & SAID, M. H. Determination of Radar ZR Relationship For
Libya Tripoli City. Proceedings of the World Congress on Engineering,
2009.
MAPIAM, P. P. & SRIWONGSITANON, N. 2008. Climatological ZR
relationship for radar
rainfall estimation in the upper Ping river
basin. ScienceAsia J, 34, 215-222.
MARSHALL, J. S. & PALMER, W. M. K. 1948. The distribution of
raindrops with size. Journal of Meteorology, 5, 165-166.
MATTHEW P. VAN HORNE, MIT, CAMBRIDGE, MA; AND E. R. VIVONI, D.
ENTEKHABI, R. N. HOFFMAN, AND C. GRASSOTTI Short-term radar
nowcasting for hydrologic applications over the Arkansas-Red River
basin 17TH Conference on Hydrology, 2003.

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6.
7.
8.
9.
RAMLI, S., BAKAR, S. H. A. & TAHIR, W. Radar hydrology: New

Z/R relationships for Klang River Basin, Malaysia based on
rainfall classification.
Humanities, Science and Engineerin
(CHUSER), 2011 IEEE Colloquium on IEEE, 537-541.
SEED, A., SIRIWARDENA, L., SUN, X., JORDAN, P. & ELLIOTT,
J. 2002. On the calibration of Australian weather radars,
CRC for Catchment Hydrology
SUZANA, R. & WARDAH, T. Radar Hydrology: New Z/R
Relationships for Klang River Basin, Malaysia. International
Conference on Environment Science and Engineering IPCBEE
vol.8 (2011) (2011) IACSIT Press, Singapore
VAN HORNE, M. P., VIVONI, E., ENTEKHABI, D., HOFFMAN, R.
& GRASSOTTI, C. Quantitative flood forecasts based on shortterm radar nowcasting. 17TH Conference on Hydrology, 2003.
Malaysia
Example of Radar Data supply by

MMD

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Reference tables
Code
Table 3.2: The sixteen characters that define

absolute level
A B C D E F G H
I
J
K L
Level
10 11 12 13 14 15
Table 3.3: Forty nine characters that define the

deviation encoding
Deviation
-3
-3 !
-2 /
Second
Range
Bin
-1 i
0 o
1
2 (
3 $
First Range Bin

-2 -1 0 1 2
[ a b c ]
d e f g h
<
j k
l m
p - . + q
>
t u
v w
y S T U V
{ W X Y }
3
@
\
n
r
x
)
&

Malaysia
Rain table
Video
level
Sig. Strength
(dBZ)
(dBZ = 10 log
(Z))
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
64.0
61.0
58.0
55.0
52.0
49.0
46.0
43.0
40.0
37.0
34.0
31.0
28.0
23.0
11.8
Assumed Rain Rate

(mm/hr)
(Z=200R1.6
)
364.6
236.8
153.8
99.9
64.8
42.1
27.3
17.8
11.5
7.5
4.9
3.2
2.1
1.0
0.2

Malaysia

Development of Reflectivity (Z) and Rainfall Intensity (R) Equation For Short Term Rainfall Forecasting For Northern Region of Peninsular Malaysia

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MAHYUN AB WAHAB P-WD 0163