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Chapter 13
Decision Support Systems
13-1
Copyright 2001 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
Programmed decisions
repetitive and routine
have a definite procedure
Nonprogrammed decisions
Novel and unstructured
No cut-and-dried method for handling problem
Intelligence
Design
Choice
Review
13-3
Definitions of a Decision
Support System (DSS)
General definition - a system providing both
problem-solving and communications capabilities
for semistructured problems
13-5
Degree of
problem
structure
Semistructured
Unstructured
Management
control
Strategic
planning
Accounts
receivable
Tanker fleet
mix
Order entry
Short-term
forecasting
Warehouse and
factory location
Inventory
control
Production
scheduling
Mergers and
acquisitions
Cash
management
Budget
preparation
New product
planning
PERT/COST
systems
Sales and
production
R&D planning
13-6
13-7
13-8
13-9
Retrieve
information
elements
Little
Analyze
entire
files
Prepare
reports
from
multiple
files
Estimate
decision
consequences
Degree of
complexity of the
problem-solving
system
Propose
decisions
Make
decisions
Degree
of
problem
solving
support
Much
13-10
A DSS Model
Environment
Individual
problem
solvers
Report
writing
software
Other
group
members
GDSS
GDSS
software
software
Mathematical
Models
Database
Decision
support
system
Environment
Legend:
Data
Communication
Information
13-12
Database Contents
Mathematical models
Simulations
Special modeling languages
Groupware or GDSS
13-13
13-14
13-15
Synchronous exchange
Members meet at same time
Committee meeting is an example
Asynchronous exchange
GDSS Types
Decision rooms
Legislative session
Large group interaction
Computer-mediated conference
Permits large, geographically dispersed group interaction
13-17
MEMBER
PROXIMITY
Dispersed
Smaller
Larger
Decision
Room
Legislative
Session
Local Area
Decision
Network
ComputerMediated
Conference
13-18
Groupware
Functions
E-mail
FAX
Voice messaging
Internet access
Lotus Notes
Popular groupware product
Handles data important to managers
13-19
O = optional feature
Novell
GroupWise
X
X
X
X
O
X
X
3
X
X
O
O
13-20
13-21
History of AI
Early history
John McCarthy coined term, AI, in 1956, at
Dartmouth College conference.
Logic Theorist (first AI program. Herbert Simon
played a part)
General problem solver (GPS)
Past 2 decades
Research has taken a back seat to MIS and DSS
development
13-22
Expert
systems
Natural
language
processing
Learning
AI
hardware
Robotics
Neural
networks
Perceptive
systems
(vision,
hearing)
Artificial Intelligence
13-23
13-24
User
Instructions &
information
Solutions &
explanations
Knowledge
User
interface
Inference
engine
Expert
system
Development
engine
Expert and
knowledge engineer
Knowledge
base
Problem
Domain
An Expert
System Model
13-25
User interface
Allows user to interact with system
Knowledge base
Houses accumulated knowledge
Inference engine
Provides reasoning
Interprets knowledge base
Development engine
Creates expert system
13-26
User Interface
User enters:
Instructions
Information
Solutions
Explanations of
Questions
Problem solutions
13-27
Knowledge Base
Description of problem domain
Rules
Conclusion
Conclusion
Evidence
Evidence
Conclusion
Evidence
Evidence
Evidence
Evidence
Evidence
Evidence
13-29
Rule Selection
Selecting rules to efficiently solve a
problem is difficult
Some goals can be reached with only a few
rules; rules 3 and 4 identify bird
13-30
Inference Engine
Performs reasoning by using the contents of
knowledge base in a particular sequence
Two basic approaches to using rules
13-31
Forward Reasoning
(Forward Chaining)
Rule 1
IF A
THEN B
Rule 2
IF C
THEN D
Rule 3
IF M
THEN E
Rule 4
IF K
THEN F
Rule 5
IF G
THEN H
Rule 6
IF I
THEN J
T
Rule 7
F
IF B OR D
THEN K
T
Rule 8
IF E
THEN L
Rule 10
IF K AND
L THEN N
The Forward
Reasoning
Process
T
Rule 12
IF N OR O
THEN P
Legend:
Rule 9
IF
IF(F
(FAND
ANDH)
H)
OR
ORJJ
THEN
THENMM
T
Rule 11
IF M
THEN O
First pass
T
Second pass
Third pass
F
13-33
Step 4
Rule 1
IF A THEN
B
T
Rule 2
Step 3
Rule 7
IF B OR D
THEN K
IF C
THEN D
Step 5
Rule 3
IF N OR O
THEN P
Rule 8
IF M
THEN E
IF E
THEN L
Rule 11
Rule 9
13-35
Step 1
Rule 12
IF (F AND H)
OR J
THEN M
IF M
M
IF
THEN O
THEN
O
Legend:
Problems to
be solved
If K
Then F
Rule 5
Rule 6
If I
Then J
If N Or O
Then P T
Step 9
If G
Then H
Rule 12
Step 7
Step 6
IF (F And H)
Or J
Then M T
If M
Then O
Rule 9
Rule 11
Legend:
Problems to
be solved
13-36
Development Engine
Programming languages
Lisp
Prolog
13-38
For managers
Consider more alternatives
Apply high level of logic
Have more time to evaluate decision rules
Consistent logic
For the firm
Better performance from management team
Retain firms knowledge resource
13-39
13-40
Keys to Successful ES
Development
Neural Networks
13-42
13-43
Axonal Paths
(output)
Synapse
Axon
Dendrites
(input)
13-44
Evolution of Artificial
Neural Systems (ANS)
McCulloch-Pitts mathematical neuron
function (late 1930s) was the starting point
Hebbs learning law (early 1940s)
Neurocomputers
13-45
Current Methodology
Mathematical models dont duplicate
human brains, but exhibit similar abilities
Complex networks
Repetitious training
13-46
w1
y2
w2
y3
w3
wn-1
yn-1
13-47
OUT1
OUTn
The Multi-Layer
Perceptron
Input
Layer
Y1
Yn2
OutputL
ayer
IN1
INn
13-48
Knowledge-based Systems
in Perspective
Much has been accomplished in neural nets
and expert systems
Much work remains
Systems abilities to mimic human
intelligence are too limited and regarded as
primitive
13-49
Summary [cont.]
AI
Neural networks
Expert systems
13-50