Downscaling for weather index

based insurance of cacao prod

uction in Indonesia
Prof.Dr. Takeshi Takama su-re.co, Udayana University
dr@su-re.co
Mr. Suradi, BMKG
Mr. Badrul Husain, Udayana University

Todays story
Cacao production and
climate change
Insurance as an
adaptation measure
Downscalling as a
soclution

CACAO PRODUC
TION AND CLIM
ATIC DISASTERS

EC Project Green-Win:
North Sulawesi = Forest protection and potentia
l cacao
West Bali = Adaptation & high quality cacao

Deforestation Driver in No
rth Sulawesi
is Slush & Burn of Corn

Cacao production as
agroforestry is a solution

West Bali is getting dryer and not

good for rice anymore.

Not enough
water, only 1
harvesting
20%
became
housing

Cacao production as an alternative crop

Cacao (20102015)

Corn(20102015)

5th year
Cacao
Win!

Win-win: Ca
cao as pover
ty reduction

Change in precipitation

INSURANCE FO
R CLIMATE CH
ANGE

Weather in
dex based
insurance

A case in Ethiopia

Downscale
with action r
esearch as a
solution

Plan
for
CC

Goo
d
data

More
data

Baseline data Golontaro:

Wet season

Baseline data of Bali:

Wet season

Downscaling:
2040-69, RCP8.5, Wet season

Downscaling:
2070-99, RCP8.5, Wet season

Calibration with action research

Ethiopia

Indramayu, Indonesia

Framework for better index ba

sed insurance
Downscalli
ng

Made
detailed
data

Increase
data
availability

Plan for
climate
change

Find impact
from
climate

Climate
insurance

Action
research

Calibrate
data

Improvin
g data
quality

Climate
science

Adaptati
on
Social
science

Prof.Dr. Takeshi Takama

Udayana Unviersity, Bali
dr@su-re.co
Thank you

sure.co

Sustainable business: Support

ers
Internatio
nal

National

Japanese
governme
nts

Trading
ministry

Local
governme
nts

Kanemats
u trading
company

Gobel
Panasonic

NGO
Kalimajari

Met office

KSS
cooperativ
e

Dari-K
Chocolate
company

Local

More to come and

Thank you very

much!
Dr. Takeshi
Takama

If you want to go fast, go alone.

If you want to go far, go together.

Additional green economy

Enable Environm Sustainable busi
ent: Biogas produ ness: Micro-fina
nce/insurance
ction

Enabling environment: forestation

Forest area in North Sulawesi

Win-win: Cacao as afforestation &

REDD+ project in Indonesia
Preserved forest
S&B corn

Production forest

S&B corn

Non-forest area

Carbon emission

Without REDD+ project

start

With REDD+ project

Time

Introduce
improved
cocoa farming

Insurance as adaptation solution

5K
Kms
& 18K
island
s

230M
peopl
e

Agro,
Touris
m,
Fissile

Fast
grow

Indonesia
Divers
e,
variable

Big
emer
g-ing

Clima
te
relate

Vulnerable?

Cacao & precipitation

Climate related disasters

Disaster =
Exposure

Vulnerability

Capacity Development on Vulnerability Ass

essment

hazard
Exposure

Sensitivity

Impact

Adaptive
Capacity

Vulnerability to
climate change

Impact on cacao production in 2014

Downscaling data: 2010-39, RCP8.5,

Wet season