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Pakistan:Land,people and

society

The geo political context


East of persian gulf and in close proximity to Russia,china
and india has given rise to its being termed as a garrison
state in which military is inevitably overdeveloped.
History has profoundly been influenced by its mighty
neighbour india
While pakistan territorial dispute with india over kashmir
over six decades it also inherited another border dispute
with afghanistan.
In july 1949 afghan parliament formally renounced
durand line border which british had negotiated with
Amir abdur rehman in 1893 to demarcate frontier of Raj.
Kabul laid claim to the territories it had lost to pakistan
It occurred in the context of afghan support for pakhtun
nationalists across durand line in pak who sought to
create their own pakhtunistan state

31st august was earmarked in afghansitan as official


greater pakhtunistan day
Kabuls posture exacerebated paks insecurty which
was already fevered by 1947-48 clash with india over
kashmir.
Within less than a decade of independence pak and
afghan became part of competing cold war alliance
system within region.
Pakistan became member of US Central treaty
organization (Cento)
India and afghan retained the fiction of non alignment
they received increasing amount of aids of USSR
During cold war and post 9/11 pak has found itself in
front line of an international conflict because of it
geographical location

Regions geopolitics since 1980s have brought pak


economic benefits but high costs in terms of internal
stability
Blow back effects of weaponization, influx of afghan
refugees and support afforded to militant and sectarian
expressions of islam
Since 9/11 pak has feared encirclement as a result of
growing indian development assistance to afghan which
it had hoped to dominate itself
By end of 2007 india was second only to US in provision
of aid
Tribal area that comprise 7 protected agencies of
Bajaur,khyber,kurram,mohmand,orakzai and north and
south waziristan form a 280 mile wedge of mounatinous
land along this sensitive eastern border with afghansitan

Pakistan continued colonial strategy of regarding tribal


areas bordering afghanistan as buffer zone in which rule
was indirect and stability provided through political agents
working through tribal jirgas.
Further legacies were provision for imposition of collective
punishment under FCR and absense of permenant military
presence in tribal heartland
Another historical inheritance which predated colonial era
was raising of tribal revolt by charasmatic muslim leaders in
pakhtun tribal areas abutting afghanistan
Jihad against sikh rule led by Syed ahmed barelvi.\
Hadda mullah jihad against against british in 1893 and 1897
were in response to colonial encroachment into the region.
Revolts continued in this region down to the end of colonial
era including the campaigns by faqir of ippi

Sixth five year plan declared FATA to be least


developed area of pakistan with an dult literacy rate
of just 15%
Pakistans geopolitical location provides economic
possibilities as well as strategic dangers
TAPI which was agreed at ashgabat in dec 2010. it
could eventually supply 30 billion cubic meters of a
gas a year from the Caspian sea region
The pipe line would have to cross strategically
sensitive areas of south eastern afghanistan
including helmand and balochistan
It would not only provide transit route fees of upto
160 million a year and jos for aghan but clean fuel for
both india and pakistan

CLIMATE
Pakistan location makes it vulnerable to vagaries of
annual monsoon
2010 floods affected the economy badly
Ealier major flooding of 1993 almost completely depleted
countrys financial reserves.
Rural population of south punjab and sindh is vulnerable
to inundation from mighty indus river
Those inhabiting tribal and frontier areas can fall victim to
flash floods emanating from kabul river and its tributaries
Deforestion has increased the risks.
Droughts however could also be caused by climate
change
There is between 10-15% decrease in annual rainfall
amounts in countrys coastel belt and plains.

Issues of water management and disputes over water


both between provinces (sindh and punjab) and between
india and pak are likely to become increasingly important.
Diseases arising out of inadequate water supply and
sanitation along with human costs ,economic costs of
over 100 billion a year.
Around 600 children die each day from water born
diseases.
Inefficient water use and management alongside rising
population mean that pakistan could be running dry by
2025 with an annual shortfall of anything upto 100 billion
cubic meters(having incalculable human and political
costs)
2010 maplecroft environment risk report ranked pak 16
out of 170 countries at risk from climate change.

Pak felled in extreme risk category headed by


india and bangladesh and alos included ne[al and
afghanistan from the region
The year 2010 saw new record temperature set in
pak of 53.5 degrees centigrade
There is an annual temperature rise of between
0.6 and 1 degree celsius in comparison with
historical levels

Natural resources
Sindh contains one of the largest coal reserves
Balochistan largest copper reserves
Fourth highest cotton crop in the world and fifth
largest dairy production increasingly exported to
middle east
2009-10 economic survey reported energy shortages
caused a loss of more than 2 percent of GDP.
Pak need to develop a capacity of 20,000 MW in ten
years at a total cost of $32 billion in order to
overcome energy shortages
Building this capacity out of indigenous resources
will have political ramifications

Population