Sea Level Change and

Sea-levels are predicted to rise by 1m

this century
(by 2100)
Why?

Sea Level Rises

Thermal expansion
Melting of glaciers and polar ice caps
Ice loss from Greenland and West Antarcti

Sea-Level Change
Key
Terms
Eustatic global-scale sea level change

caused by a change in the volume of water

in the ocean store
Isostatic local-scale sea level change
caused by a change in the level of the land
relative to the level of the sea.
Emergence the impact of a relative FALL
in sea level (Marine Regression)
Submergence the impact of a RISE in
relative sea level (Marine Transgression)

Eustatic (global)
Changes
A decrease in global temperatures leads to
more precipitation occurring in the form of
snow.
Eventually this snow turns to ice and so water
is stored on land rather than being returned to
the ocean store.
Consequently there is a global FALL in sea
level.
If global temperatures subsequently rise,
glaciers retreat and ice melts causing a RISE
in global sea level.

Isostatic (local)
Changes
During a glacial period, the weight of ice in ice
sheets and glaciers adds weight to the earths
crust.
This causes the crust to sink lower into the
mantle rock beneath.
This results in an apparent rise in the level of the
sea.
At the end of the glacial period the ice melts and
weight is lost from the crust causing it to slowly
rise. The sea level will then appear to fall.
Some places on the east coast of Scotland are
rising at a rate of 7mm a year.

Landforms of
Submergence
Rias
Fjords
Fjards submerged glacial lowlands
Dalmatian Coasts submerged valleys
running parallel to the coast

Rias

Rias are submerged river valleys. The lowest part of

the rivers course and the floodplains alongside the
river may be completely drowned, but the higher
land remains exposed, e.g. Kingsbridge Estuary,

In cross section the ria has relatively shallow

water becoming increasingly deep towards the
centre. The exposed valley sides are quite
gently sloping.
In long section rias are quite even with a
smooth profile and water of uniform depth.
In plan view they tend to be winding, reflecting
the original route of the river and its valley.

Fjords

Fjords are submerged glacial valleys. They have

steep, cliff-like valley sides and the water is uniformly
deep (often 1000m in depth). These were formed
when glaciers eroded below sea-level. When the ice
melted the valleys were flooded, e.g. Milford Sound

The u-shaped cross-section reflects

original shape of the glacial valley.

the

Unlike rias, fjords are not deepest at their

mouths, but have a shallow section at the
seaward end known as the threshold.
Fjords have much straighter routes, due to
the erosive power of the glacier.

Landforms of Emergence
Raised Beaches
Abandoned Coastlines

Raised Beaches

Raised beaches, e.g. Little Gruinard, Ullapool are areas of

former wave-cut platforms and their beaches which are
left at a higher level than the present coastline.
Abandoned cliffs, caves and stacks can also be found.

Climate Change and

Impacts of Sea Level
Rise
1.
increased storm damage to coastal
infrastructure

2. increased coastal erosion

3. higher storm-surge flooding
4. changes in surface water quality and
groundwater characteristics
5. rising water tables
6. changes in tidal prism

Climate Change and

Impacts of Sea Level
Rise
7.
Increased flood risk and potential loss of
life,

8. loss of non-monetary cultural resources

and values,
9. Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture
through decline in soil and water quality,
10.loss of tourism, recreation,
transportation functions.

and

Future climate predictions

Global average temperature and sea-level are projected to rise

under all IPCC scenarios

Temperature: +1.4 to +5.8 C (between 1990 and 2100)

Precipitation: general increase, but variable

Extreme events: increases in variability and some extreme events

El Nino: little change/small increase in amplitude

Monsoons: increase in Asian Monsoon summer precipitation

variability

Snow and Ice cover: decreases, but Antarctica gains mass (W.
Antarctic Ice Sheet stable); Greenland loses ice.

Sea level: +9 to +88 cm ; thermal expansion mainly

Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries

Projections of Future Changes in Climate

Projected warming
in 21st century
expected to be
greatest over land
and at most high
northern latitudes
and least over the
Southern Ocean
and parts of the
North Atlantic
Ocean

Projections of Future Changes in Climate

Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes

Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

Projections of Future Changes in Climate

There is now higher confidence in projected patterns of

warming and other regional-scale features, including
changes in wind patterns, precipitation, and some
aspects of extremes and of ice.

PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE

Snow cover is projected to contract

Widespread increases in thaw depth most
permafrost regions
Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the
Arctic and Antarctic
In some projections, Arctic late-summer
sea ice disappears almost entirely by the
latter part of the 21st century

PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE

Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy
precipitation events will continue to become more
frequent
Likely that future tropical cyclones will become more
intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy
precipitation

less confidence in decrease of total number

Extra-tropical storm tracks projected to move poleward
with consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and
temperature patterns

PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE

Based on current model simulations, it is very likely that
the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the
Atlantic Ocean will slow down during the 21st century.
longer term changes not assessed with confidence
Temperatures in the Atlantic region are projected to
increase despite such changes due to the much larger
warming associated with projected increases of
greenhouse gases.

PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE

Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue
for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate
processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas
concentrations were to be stabilized.
Temperatures in excess of 1.9 to 4.6C warmer than preindustrial sustained for millenniaeventual melt of the
Greenland ice sheet. Would raise sea level by 7 m.
Comparable to 125,000 years ago.

Temperature
1000-2100

Q: Why worry about climate change ?

Q: Why worry about climate change ?

Q: Why worry about climate change ?