Escolar Documentos
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Tang Xijin
Institute of Systems Science
AMSS
Chinese Academy of Sciences
I. INTRODUCTION
For some complex system problems it is often the case we couldn't
only use the data and models to solve them, We have to combine
the human judgment (qualitative) and mathematical models
(quantitative), even more we have to use the Metasynthesis from
qualitative to quantitative approach proposed by Prof. Qian et al.
This Metasynthesis approach suggested that when solve the
problems arisen in the open giant complex system, we must
integrate the Data, Information, Knowledge, Models and expert
opinions with the help of advanced computer technology.
Data
Model
Method
Experience
Macro
economi
cs
Zhang Pengzhu and his colleagues from Xian Jiaotong University are
now developing a prototype of the Electronic Common Brain, or simply
Common Brain, which are useful for the group decision making process.
When the experts attend the discussion they may have two kind of
discussion Labs: online Discussion Lab and offline discussion Lab. In the
first stage people may classify, retrieve, aggregate rough information,
then let the information be systematic and input into the database attached
to offline discussion Lab. Then in the offline discussion Lab people may
make statistics, analyze, verify and reach primitive consensus. Finally
people again go to online discussion Lab to run the deeper discussion.
They also investigate the problem how to support the group decision
making process with unstructured information and propose a tree-structure
for information organization in unstructured group process.
3.2 Analysis
3.2.1 Model I
Econometric Model; Time Series Model
3.2.2 Model II
Multi-agent Model
3.2.3. Model III
New economic model
3.2.4. Model from outside
3.2.5. Model Integration
3.3. Meeting II
3.3.1. Metasynthesis Reconstructibility Analysis(MRA)
3.3.2. Feasible Desirable method (FDM)
3.3.3. Consensus Building
Year (1)
(2)
(3)
1987 11.6
11.0057
11.385
1988 11.3
12.515
11.8706
1989 4.1
12.3064
4.5313
1990 3.8
6.53981
3.82484
1991 9.2
13.5869
8.73321
1992 14.2
14.2655
14.326
1993 13.5
14.6255
12.075
1994 12.6
12.7926
13.206
1995 10.5
7.35298
9.9316
1996 9.6
7.06571
9.09417
1997 8.8
7.2239
8.03538
1998 7.8
7.08204
8.07829
(1) GDP(growth rate) in Yearbook
(2) GDP forecasted
(3) GDP forecasted with considering the knowledge
Consensus II
Meeting I
Consensus I
Analysis
Analysis
FDM
Model I
Model II
Meeting II
Model III
Model
Integration
MRA
(ISS)
Consensus I
Consensus II
Analysis
Analysis
(710,AM)
(SJU)
FDM
Model I
(PU)
Model II
(BNU,SJU)
Model III
Models from outside
Meeting II
(SJU,ISS)
Model
Integration
(ISS)
MRA
Meeting
Meeting
Tool
Tool
Consensus
Consensus
Method
Method
IV. Conclusion
Though the mentioned key project is under progress, but we found some
specific features during running the project. They are:
1) Follow some system methodologies, like metasynthesis system approach,
Wuli-Shili-Renli (WSR) system approach and Spiral Propulsion system
approach;
2) Provide economic data base, economic information, data mining;
3) Design the meeting, using Common Brain ,GAE etc ;
4) Provide different economic models, and model integration;
5) Provide metasynthesis methods, which may synthesize the data, information,
models and experience, e.g. NGT, AHP, System reconstruction, and some
consensus methods, such as voting, group decision methods;
6) Study on the some theoretical topics related to the economic complex systems.
Reference
1.
Tang X.J. and Liu Y.J., A prototype environment for Group Argumentation, presentation on MCS2002, August 7,2002,
Shanghai
2.
Cheng Shaochuan, Sun JingIe, Liu Ming-de, On support paradigm of group decision argument, J. of Systems Engineering,
16(5) 366-370, 2002
3.
Hu Daiping, Wang Huanchen, Building forecasting model system in workshop for hall of metasynthetic engineering to
support macroeconomy decision, J. of Systems Engineering, 16(5) 335-339, 2002
4.
Shu Guangfu, Meta-synthetic system reconstruction and application in macro-economic researches, J. of Systems Engineering,
16(5) 349-353, 2002
5.
Tang Xijin, Model integration, J. of Systems Engineering, 16(5) 322-329, 2002
6.
Shen Huizhang, Wang Huanchen, Methodology based evolution modeling for macroeconomics systems analysis, J. of Systems
Engineering, 16(5) 389-393, 2002
7.
Ge Xinyuan, Waang Dahui, Yuan Qiang, Fang Fukang, General multi-sector dynamic economic model andits reasonability
analysis, J. of Systems Engineering, 16(5) 397-401, 2002
8.
Gu Jifa , On synthesizing opinions-how can we reach consensus, J. of Systems Engineering, 16(5) 366-370, 2002