POPULATION EXPLOSION:

Fearing an illusory doom

Presented by:
Govind Singh Kushwah

Some Facts:
In early 50s Birth rate hovered at 45 per 1000
people with total fertility rate at 6 children per
woman.
50 years down the line govt. could only manage
to bring B.R. to 25 per 1000 and T.F.R. to 3.1
when set targets were 21 and 2.1 respectively.
This, along with decline in IMR and rise in life
expectancy levels due to improvement in public
health facilities, led to an increase in population
from 361 million in 1951 to 1.2 billion by the turn
of the century.

If present growth rate continues, India is likely to

leave china way behind by 2050.

So does it mean that the failure of

state sponsored Family Planning
Program would spell doom for the
country in near future???

But contrary to what had been speculated, several studies made

recently in the lights of economic reforms and more in the wake
of globalization- dictate that sound economic policies and
investment in enhancing human capital could instead put India in
an advantageous positions.

The report that primarily forecasted the likely states of economies

of the BRIC ( Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries by 2050,
mentioned that not only would India be amongst the top three
economies in terms of GDP- but would have tremendous
advantage due to working age population constituting nearly 60%
of total population

Thus while the states like China and USA would be struglling to
sustain their aged populace, india might instead turn out to be a
hunting ground for global enterprises in search of economical
and efficient labour.
Sadly, looking at the present level of human development and
the successive governments sticking to the Malthusian model
that sees people as burden instead of assets, this forecast
seems quite unlikely.
As per the 2001 census, India is still placed way below the other
BRIC nations, with only 65% of literate adults
while two third of the men have been able to come under the
category of literates, more than half of womenfolk in the
country still cannot read and write.
presently the country suffers from a shortage of about 1.2
million trained medical practitioners.

It is being noticed now that the improvement in literacy levels, as

well as economic status of the families, automatically encounters
people to have lesser number of children.
Kerala and Sikkim, which achieved milestones in income and literacy
rates with 90% and 70% have lower fertility ratios of 2 and 3.
States like U.P. and Bihar that have high illiteracy rates have high
fertlity rates of 5 and 3 respectively.
In Punjab and Maharashtra, surveys have shown that despite
prevalent inequality between male and female child, economic and
educatoinal achievements have helped reduce fertility ratios of
women.
The higher education increases the prospects of a woman being
economically independent, thereby giving her more control over
birth related decisions.

Steps Needed
New trends suggested that the state should do away with
extravagant family planning programmes and instead divert
resources into improving education and creating more job
opportunities.
There is a need to convert masses into knowledgeable workers.
India should press hard the developed nations in the WTO for
the free movement of professionals.
Government must concentrate on improving infrastructure and
providing basic amenities along with good health care facilities.

Conclusion
Population is not a curse but it may act as a boon to our country.
If economy grows at a rate more than rate of growth of
population, it may infact not only be able to consume the
pressure due to rising population, but also grow further due to
rising income levels of the population.
Right steps, along with sound economic reforms, are sure to
make the dream of making the 21th century as Indian century
come true

QUESTIONS
?????