Prediction of rainfall using Artificial Neural

Network
Presented by
Sudipta Acharjee
AB CONCERN, Saltlake,West Bengal, 22 January,
2011

Outline
What are Neural Networks?
Biological Neural Networks
ANN The basics
Feed forward net
Training

What are Neural Networks?

Models of the brain and nervous system
Highly parallel

Process information much more like the brain than a serial

computer

Learning

Very simple principles

Very complex behaviours
Applications

As powerful problem solvers

As biological models

 Neurone vs. Node

ANNs The basics

ANNs incorporate the two

fundamental components of
biological neural nets:

1. Neurones (nodes)
2. Synapses (weights)

Feed-forward nets
Information flow is unidirectional
Data is presented to Input layer
Passed on to Hidden Layer
Passed on to Output layer

Information is distributed
Information processing is parallel

Internal representation (interpretation) of data

What is Rainfall
Prediction?
Rainfall prediction is an important

aspect of atmospheric

science.
It is a challenging task especially in the modern world where
we are facing the major environmental problem of global
warming.
In general, we have seen that in some parts annual rainfall has
increased and storms, draught, floods have increased in some
other parts.
In this dissertation work, we propose a multilayer perceptron
network model for prediction of various weather parameters
like Rainfall parameter.

Accurate estimation of Rainfall is an important topic of current

interest.
It has an impact on agriculture and economic growth of our country
on agriculture production.
Accurate rainfall estimation will help in agriculture planning as well
as management of water sources reserves, flood watches, draught
etc.
The basic idea of this dissertation is to develop a computational
model using artificial neural network.

Rainfall depends on various parameters such as:

Maximum temperature (X1)

Minimum temperature (X2)
Maximum relative humidity (X3)
Minimum relative humidity(X4)
Maximum pressure(X5)
Minimum pressure(X6)
Maximum vapor pressure(X7)
Minimum vapor pressure(X8)
Average rainfall(X9)

training and testing stages.In this model is trained by 80% of

the previous collected data and tested by 20% of the data. A
daily rainfall data can be grouped as a time series set
because it consists of sequences of values in day. We have
performed data preprocessing steps on raw set of daily
rainfall as shown below:
1)Firstly, daily rainfall data were collected.
2)Secondly, daily rainfall data were normalized by a min-max
normalization into a specific range 0.0 to 1.0
The ratio of the input node: hidden node: output node is
18:2:1
A method of Clustering provides to segregate information
about data set in a summarized form. It is basically an
unsupervised form of learning. The basic objective behind
clustering is grouping of similar data sets together. A single
cluster will contain items those are similar to each other. The
objective of clustering is to maximize intra cluster similarity
and minimize inter cluster similarity. The objects within data
sets are close to each other if they belong to same cluster.
By this method of clustering, we classify the atmospheric
data into several clusters according to the significant data
platform. For each cluster separate neural network is to be
designed to be trained accordingly to get better prediction
result. This trained several neural networks is based on
Hybrid Neural Network.

A competitive learning rule can be defined mathematically to train the

system to provide
accurate measures.
If we have Vij = Weight between input layer and hidden layer
Wij = Weight between hidden layer and output layer
E=Error
=Learning parameter (0 < < 1) then
E= (Target output Computed output) 2
E= ( RT RE )2
Based on the computed error E, we update the weights V ij and Wij as per the
follwing rules
Vij(k+1) = Vij(k) + E/Vij
Wij(k+1) = Wij(k) + E/Wij
The system will complete learning when
Vij(k+1) - Vij(k)| <10-4 for trained system
|
Wij(k+1) - Wij(k)| <10-4 for trained system
|

In this case the error is minimul.Consequently the ANN becomes well trained and
can
comprising
be used
with Xfor
,X2,X
delivering
,X4,X5
accurate optimal prediction of rainfall. In this MLP
1
3
network
1 / 1 + e-^X as
X6,X7,X8,X9 we have used sigmoid output function f(X) =
activation
the network with normalized data
Where X = function
Weight to
train
Xi
ij
We take ^ =0.1

Future Scope:
The work can be further enhanced for location based weather forecast to
provide accurate estimation of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature,
humidity and water vapor without using the meteorological devices.

References:
[1]

[2]
[3]

[4]
[5]

Zadeh LA, Roles of soft Computing and Fuzzy logic in the

Conception, Design and Deployment of Information/Intelligent
Systems, Computational Intelligence: Soft Computing and FuzzyNeuro Integration with Application, O Kaynak, LA Zadeh, B Tuksen, IJ
Rudas (Eds.), pp1-9, 1998
Hansen, J, A.Lucis, R.Ruedy, and M.Sato.1992.Potential climate impact
Of Mount Pinatubo eruption, Geophys.Res.Lett, 19,215-218.
Wilby, R.L.and Dettinger, M.D.2000.Streamflow changes in the Sierra
Nevada, CA simulated using a statistically downscaled General
Circulation Model scenario of climate change.In: McLaren, S.J.and
Kniveton, D.R. (Eds.), Linking Climate Change to Land Surface
Change, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands, pp.99-121.
Abraham, A. (2004) Meta-Learning Evolutionary Artificial Neural
Networks, Neurocomputing Journal, Vol. 56c, Elsevier
Science, Netherlands, (1-38).
Pandit, Sudhakar M. and Wu, Shien-Ming.Time Series and System
Analysis with Applications. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1983