Five Questions

Speculations on the Universe, You, and Foresight

in a World of Accelerating Technological Change

Mindshare LA
July 2008 Los Angeles, CA

John Smart, President,

Acceleration Studies Foundation
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html

Outline
1. What is Accelerating Change?
2. What is the Universe?
3. Who are You in Relation to the Universe?
4. What Aspects of Our Future Can We
Reasonably Understand Today?
5. Why Should You Engage in Foresight /
Futures Studies?

What is Accelerating Change?

Your intuitions, please!

What is Accelerating Change?

An Unexplained and Fascinating Phenomenon

Acceleration Studies:
Something Curious Is Going On
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Foundation
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A Developmental Spiral

An unexplained physical phenomenon.

(Dont look for this in your current
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physics or information theory texts)

2007 Accelerating.org

The Developmental Spiral

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Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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Homo Habilis Age

Homo Sapiens Age
Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age
Agricultural Age
Empires Age
Scientific Age
Industrial Age
Information Age
Symbiotic Age
Autonomy Age
Tech Singularity

2,000,000 yrs ago

100,000 yrs
40,000 yrs
7,000 yrs
2,500 yrs
380 yrs (1500-1770)
180 yrs (1770-1950)
70 yrs (1950-2020)
30 yrs (2020-2050)
10 yrs (2050-2060)
2060
2007 Accelerating.org

Acceleration Studies Foundation: Who We Are

Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

ASF (Accelerating.org) is a small nonprofit

community of scholars (est. 2003) exploring
accelerating change in:
1. Science, Technology, Business, and Society
(STBS), at
2. Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and
Universal (POSGU) levels of analysis.

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Accelerating Change 2005, Stanford University

2007 Accelerating.org

Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do

Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

We practice evolutionary developmental (evo

devo) futures studies, a model of change that
proposes the universe contains both:
1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and
trends that direct and constrain our long-range future and
2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices we
may use to create unique and creative paths (many of
which will fail) on the way to these highly probable
developmental destinations.

Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to

the future of complex systems on Earth include:

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Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity

in our global sociotechnological systems
Increasing technological autonomy, and
Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
2007 Accelerating.org

What is the Universe?

Your intuitions, please!

What is the Universe?

One current model:

A life-like system, engaging in both
evolution and development.

Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo):

The Left and Right Hands of Universal Change
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Experimentatio
n
Main Actor: Seed
Replication,
Variation,
Chaos,
Contingency,
Early Species
Radiation
(Mostly
Nonadapted)
Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors

Natural Selection
Main Actor: Organism
Life Cycle, Growth Curves,
Modularity,
Responsiveness,
Plasticity, Intelligence
(Local Adaptation)
Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors

Adaptation

Radiation

Evolution
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Left Hand of Change

New Computational Phase Space
Opening

Evo Devo
(Intersection)

Convergent

Unification
Main Actor: Environment
MEST Compression,
Ergodicity/Comp. Closure,
Evolutionary
Convergence,
PathDependence/Hierarchy
,
Dissipative Structures,
Positive Sumness/Synergy,
Niche
Construction/Stigmerg
y,
Self-Organization
(Global Adaptation)
Development
Environmental
Optimization
Right
Hand Attractors
of Change
Standard

Hierarchy

Well-Explored Phase Space

Optimization
2007 Accelerating.org

Evolution and Development in Universal Terms:

A Table and a Some Key Conjectures
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Some Key Conjectures:

Evolution is intelligence/information accumulation.
Development is intelligence/information preservation.
Evolution causes ongoing unpredictability and novelty.
Development causes cyclic predictability and stability.
Evolution drives most unique local patterns.
Development drives most predictable global patterns.
Life, Intelligence, the Universe and You and I actively use
both evo and devo processes in order to thrive.
The more consciously we are aware of this, the more we can
understand, value, and work with both.

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Each has different and often conflicting processes and aims.

Both are critical to our life, society, and the universe.
2007 Accelerating.org

Evolution vs. Development:

Understand it in Life, Understand it in the Universe
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

Consider two genetically identical twins:

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Thumbprints, brain wiring, learned ideas and behaviors, many local

processes and small things are unpredictably unique in each twin.
Yet many processes and large things are predictably the same.

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The Lesson:
(Predictable and conservative) development is always different from
but works with (unpredictable and creative) evolutionary processes.
Both are fundamental to universal complexity.
2007 Accelerating.org

More Questions, and a Research Community

Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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Are

evo and devo both fundamental methods our universe

uses to create and maintain complexity?

By

analogy with two genetically-identical twins, would two

parametrically-identical universes each exhibit
unpredictable and unique evolutionary differentiation over
their lifespan, and at the same time, a broad set of
predictable and shared developmental milestones,
structure and function between them?

If

so, can we come to understand our universe as an

evolutionary developmental (evo devo) system?

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2007 Accelerating.org

Evo Devo Theory in Politics:

Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!)
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Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political

dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability

Developmental sustainability without continuous

change/creativity creates sterility, clonality,
overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism).
Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability
creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally
stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).
2007 Accelerating.org

Evo Devo Theory in Politics:

Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!)
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Evo devo theory suggests that both Republican and

Democratic platforms bridge the evo devo political center in
two complementary ways. That would make each integral,
fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo
mixes) that are likely to be long-term stable all cultures.

Republicans are
Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political Issues
Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues

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Democrats are
Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political Issues
Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues

2007 Accelerating.org

Who are You in Relation to the Universe?

Your intuitions, please!

Who are You in Relation to the Universe?

A very complex and special piece of the

universe, evolved and developed by the universe
to create (evo), sustain (devo), and understand
(evo devo) the universe from your perspective,
and to form beliefs about those things you dont
yet understand.

Cosmic Embryogenesis:
Complexity Development in Three Easy Steps
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Geosphere/Geogenesis
(Chemical Substrate)

Biosphere/Biogenesis
(Biological-Genetic Substrate)

Noosphere/Noogenesis
(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)
Pierre Teihard de Chardin
(1881-1955)
Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist,
Developmental Systems Theorist
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The Phenomenon of Man, 1955

2007 Accelerating.org

De Chardin on Acceleration:
Technological Cephalization of Earth
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation

"No one can deny that

anetwork (a world
network) of economic and
psychic affiliations is
being woven at ever
increasing speed
whichenvelops and
constantly penetrates
more deeply within each
of us.With every day that
passes it becomes a little
more impossible for us
toact or think otherwise
than collectively."

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Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =

Phase Transition (Singularity)
2007 Accelerating.org

What Aspects of Our Future Can We

Reasonably Understand Today?
Your intuitions, please!

What Aspects of Our Future Can We

Reasonably Understand Today?

As in Living Systems, We Can Increasingly

Understand All the Developmental Aspects
of Our Future, But the Evolutionary Aspects
are Perpetually Novel and Surprising.

Artificial Intelligence is Coming Of Age

Acceleration
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Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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AI is growing, but not yet fastest growing industry

$1B in 93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002
(mostly commercial). AGR of 12%
U.S., Asia, Europe are equally strong in AI
Belief nets, neural nets, expert systems growing
faster than decision support, agents, evo AI
Mostly incremental enhancement of existing apps
(online catalogs, etc.), few new platforms
Translation, Natural Language Processing, and
Computer telephony (CT) are improving rapidly
(Google, Directory Systems, Booking Systems)
Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop soon.
Coming: Conversational Interface (CI)
Persuasive Computing, and
Personality Capture/Valuecosm

2007 Accelerating.org

Robo sapiens is on the Horizon

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Studies
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Huey and Louey

AIST and Kawadas HRP-2

(Can get up when he falls or
when you knock him down)
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Aibo Soccer
2007 Accelerating.org

IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the

Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015-2025
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Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may
as well.

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Date Avg. Query

1998
1.3 words
2005
2.6 words
2012
5.2 words
2019 10.4 words

Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain

Average spoken
human-to-human
query length is
11 words.
2007 Accelerating.org

Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent

Interface (Digital Twin) in 2020?
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Nonverbal and verbal language

in parallel is a much more
efficient communication modality.
Birdwhistell: 2/3 of information in
face-to-face human conversation
is nonverbal.

Working with Phil in Apples

Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987

Ananova, 2002
2007 Accelerating.org

Post 2020: The Symbiotic Age

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A Coevolution between Saturating Humans

and Accelerating Technology:
A time

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when computers speak our language.

A time when our technologies are very
responsive to our needs and desires.
A time when humans and machines are
intimately connected, and always improving
each other.
A time when we will begin to feel naked
without our computer clothes.
2007 Accelerating.org

Personality Capture: A Long-Term

Development of Intelligence Amplification
Acceleration
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Conversational interfaces lead to personality models.

In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long-term futures have been proposed.

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Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming

technologic. (Brian Arthur, SFI)
2007 Accelerating.org

Your Digital You (Digital Twin)

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I would never upload my consciousness

into a machine.
I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050,
your digital mom will be 50% her.
When your best friend dies in 2080, your
digital best friend will be 80% him.
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your own conscious
perspective between your electronic and
biological components, the encapsulation
and transcendence of the biological should
feel like only growth, not death.

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We wouldnt have it any other way.

Greg Panos (and Mother)

PersonaFoundation.org
2007 Accelerating.org

Valuecosm 2040:
Our Plural-Positive Political Future
Acceleration
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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Microcosm

(Gilder), 1960s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2030s
- Recording and Publishing DT Preferences
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
- Early Examples: Social Network Media
2007 Accelerating.org

Problem: Unsustainable Environmental Practices

Long-Term Opportunity: Sustainability Economics
Acceleration
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First (and only)

platinum-certified
LEED building in AZ
in 2007: ASUs
Biodesign Institute
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Canons WEEE Man

3.3 long tons of
electrojunk
(current average first
world human elec.
waste)
Shrink the man!
2007 Accelerating.org

Problem: Violent Conflict

Long-Term Opportunity: Reducing Global Violence
Acceleration
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Steven Pinker, A History of Violence, 2007

Civil society: 1) replaces anarchy with order, 2) increases value

of life, 3) offers positive-sum interactions, 4) expands ones circle
of empathy
In sixteenth-century Paris, a popular form of entertainment was
cat-burning. Such atrocities could not be popular culture today.
20th Century state war deaths of 100 million would have been 2
billion (20X) if they had the relative mortality of tribal warfare.
Homicide rates in England (typical) fell from
24 per 100,000 in the fourteenth century to
0.6 per 100,000 by the early 1960s.
Battle deaths in interstate wars have
declined from 65,000/yr in the 1950s
to 2,000/yr in 1990s
See Human Security Brief 2006
(www.humansecuritybrief.info/)

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Alto
A
of Violence, Steven Pinker, The New Republic Online, 19 Mar 2007

2007 Accelerating.org

Problem: Low Cost, Sustainable Energy Supply

Longer-Term Opportunity: Solar Energy
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Not yet a revolutionary platform at present:

10%-25% conversion efficiencies today. May
need 50% efficiencies for significant
substitution over fossil fuels.
High yield cells are not yet cheap or very
environmentally friendly.
Before 1990s, it may have taken more
energy to create solar cells than they could
generate in a lifetime (neg. energy payback).
Energy paybacks on solar cells now range
from 4-10 yrs. Economic paybacks are still
3X this (15-30 years).
We also need cheap solar energy storage
systems (nanobatteries, flywheels, etc.)
Germany has greatest number of solar
photovoltaic (PV) cell installations today.
Solar PV-electric likely to be cost competitive
with coal-fired power plant electric in 2020s
We are in the last generation of
geostrategic energy politics.
See: Photon Consulting, 2007

2007 Accelerating.org

Problem: Water Supply

Long-Term Opportunity: Desalination
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Water use in Israel. Agricultural and

residential efficiency innovations can
deliver the most savings.

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Reverse osmosis is one of several

types of desalination technologies.

Desalinated water production gets

half as expensive per cubic meter
every six years (LA Times, 2005)
Annual desalination output in Abu Dhabi
2007 Accelerating.org

Problem: Gridlock in Growing Cities

Longer-Term Opp: Underground Automated Hwy Systems
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

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May be significantly cheaper than air taxi transport (per passenger mile, once
installed). No visual blight, reclaim surface real estate. Allows > 10X growth in
our current traffic capacity in our leading cities, lower transit times and better
safety than manual driving. Requires Intelligent and Zero-Emission Vehicles
(2025+) Number of tunnel boring machines are doubling every three years.
Underground Automated Highway Systems: A 2030 Scenario, John Smart, 2005

2007 Accelerating.org

Why Should You Engage in

Foresight / Futures Studies?
Your intuitions, please!

Why Should You Engage in

Foresight / Futures Studies?

Hindsight, Insight, and Foresight Make us

Mindful, Balanced and Alive in the Present.
Foresight Can Be Developed, Like Any Other
Skill, to Help Us Understand and Differentiate
Predictable and Unpredictable Aspects of our
Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global,
and Universal Futures

Global Futures Network: For Professional

Futurists, Foresight Educators, and You!
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

A public, community-edited
People, Orgs, and Resources directory
for emerging global foresight culture.
FuturesNetwork.org

GFN is your portal to the best online social networks

(Shaping Tomorrow, GFN LinkedIn, GFN Facebook),
social groups (ASF Future Salons, WTA and WFS
Chapters), organizations, listserves, conferences,
websites, periodicals, publications, etc. for those
interested in futures/foresight subjects. Join us!
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2007 Accelerating.org

FERN: For Foresight/Futures Educators,

Students, and Advocates of Foresight Education
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Foresight Education
and Research Network

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FERN (FERNweb.org) is a global community for

foresight/futures educators, students, and advocates
of foresight education. It networks foresight educators,
the ten academic programs in foresight/futures
studies (offering credentials to become a foresight
educator), MS and PhD students and alums, and
helps develop open source futures/foresight
materials, courses, and new academic programs
globally.
2007 Accelerating.org

Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary

and Developmental Processes in the Universe
Acceleration
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Improving foresight
through better theories of
universal change.
EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of
physicists, chemists, biologists, cognitive and
social scientists, technologists, philosophers, and
complexity and systems theorists who are interested
in better characterizing the relationship and difference
between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and
developmental (significantly predictable) processes
in the universe and its subsystems.

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2007 Accelerating.org

A Closing Visual:
Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not.
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2007 Accelerating.org