Examining the

shot location
battle in the NBA

August 4, 2016

Pace and Space

NBA
Term coined by Miami Heat coach
Erik Spoelstra in 2012 (won
championship that season)
Result of the analytics movement
and use of player tracking analysis
in recent years
Space the floor, stretch the
opposing defense, choose shot
location based on greatest
expected value

Expected value of
shot distance: 20122013 NBA
Distance from
Basket

Field Goal
Percentage

Expected
Point Value
per shot

Percent Added
Value

0-3 ft

64.6%

1.29

+68%

3-10 ft

39.8%

0.80

+4%

10-16 ft

41.7%

0.83

+8%

16-23 ft

38.3%

0.77

--

Threes

35.9%

1.08

+40%

NBA Team Average 3-point Attempts per Game

26

24.1

24
22
20
18
16
14
12

14.7

.477

2001-2002 NBA Effective FG%

.502

2015-2016 NBA Effective FG%

All-time High

Effective FG%: Adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field

goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal

Does this actually

lead to winning more
games?
How signifcantly does a teams shot location, and a
teams ability to defend high value shot locations,
affect wins?
Does it
matter?
Please We
need to win
some
games.

What are the

factors to solve
this problem?
Offense: Shot selection distances and shots
made
Percentage of team shots from certain distance
ranges away from rim and the corresponding field
percentages of those shots

Defense: Allowed shot distances and shots

made
Percentage of shots allowed to opponents from
certain distance ranges away from rim and the
corresponding field goal percentages of those

201573 wins (most

wins all time)
2016
Offense

Defense

% of Field
Goals
Attempted

Field Goal %

% of
Opponent
FGA

Opponent
FG%

0-3 ft

.301

.660

.277

.639

3-10 ft

.125

.362

.177

.345

10-16 ft

.093

.423

.118

.386

16 <3pt

.119

.452

.164

.389

3-point

.362

.416

.263

.332

100%

100%

Then
what?
Evaluate these factors as potential Key
Performance Indicators and use them to build a
Win Expectancy Model using multiple regression
Use data from every NBA team over the last five
full regular seasons (82 games)
5 years, 30 teams, 21 statistics 150
observations, 3150 unique data points

Challenge
s

Too many variables = Less reliable

Multicollinearity: Percentages of shots
taken/allowed from distance ranges are
dependent on each other

Ex: Increasing rate of 3-pt shots will decrease

rate of other shots

Solution: Determine most significant distance

range for offense and defense, then build a
model using backward elimination

First Analysis
Results
Offense: 3-PT attempt rate has highest correlation to wins
(0.28)
Defense: 0-3 ft shots allowed has highest correlation to
wins (-0.38)
Notable: Defensively, allowing 0-3 ft shot attempts and 3point shot attempts has a negative correlation to wins.
Allowing mid-range shots between 3 ft and 3-point line has a
positive correlation to wins
Weird: Offensively, all field goal attempt rates besides 3pointers, including 0-3 ft shots, have a negative correlation

Force more mid-range

shots on defense!

Shoot more
threes on
offense!

Multiple Regression Analysis

Predicted Wins = 0 + 1(X1) + 2(X2) + + X(XX)

P < 0.1
R2 = .97

Predicted Wins = 0 + .239(3-PT attempt rate) + 1.348(0-3ft FG%) + .519(3-10ft FG%)

+ .534(10-16ft FG%) + .692(16-3PT FG%) + 1.586(3-PT FG%)
.551(0-3ft shots allowed rate) 1.027(0-3ft FG% allowed)
1.142(3-10ft FG% allowed) 1.423(3-PT FG% allowed)

P<
0.05
R2 = .
97

Predicted Wins = 0 + 1.570 (0-3ft FG%) + .596(3-10ft FG%) + .860(16-3PT FG%)

+ 1.682(3-PT FG%) 1.074(0-3ft FG% allowed) 1.114(3-10ft FG%
allowed)

1.805(3-PT FG% allowed)

Most predicted wins

2016 Golden State Warriors

68 predicted wins 73 actual wins

Fewest predicted
wins

2013 Charlotte Bobcats

15 predicted wins 21 actual wins

Most overachieving

2015 Chicago Bulls

50 wins, 32 predicted wins 18 residual wins

Most underachieving
Not cool.

2016 Philadephia 76ers

10 wins, 29 predicted wins -19 residual wins

Conclusions
Shooting from specific distance ranges away from the rim to
optimize expected point value per shot has a small-to-moderate
correlation to wins, but this analysis was unable to prove a
strong significance -- too many other factors in the game
Its more significant to be able to make and defend shots FG%
and FG% allowed proved to be very significant
Looking ahead: Consider other ways to evaluate shot distances
since their dependencies would affect a regression analysis.
Evaluate independent variable relationships further with VIF test.
Look at regressions of shooting statistics with entirely different
types of statistics (pace, ball movement, etc)

Thank
you

Any questions?