Ch # 11 Risk, Reliability, and

Safety

Risk is the potential for realizing some

unwanted and negative consequences of an
event.
Risk (Consequences/unit time) = frequency
(events/unit time) X magnitude
(consequence/event)
Examples: Failure of large technological
systems, Discrete small-scale accidents etc.
Engineering risk: is a link between
Technological Growth and Social Values

Risk, Reliability, and

Safety

Reliability is the probability that a system,

device or component will successfully
perform for;

A given range of operating condition

A specific environment condition
A prescribed economic survival time

It is one of the essential elements of modern

engineering design

Reliability Theory
It is basically a study of Causes, Distribution and
Failure.
Basic Equation for Reliability
R (t) = Reliability with respect to time
F(t) = Unreliability (probability of failure) in the
same time t.
As failure and non-failure are mutually exclusive
events so;
R(t) + F(t) = 1

Reliability Theory
N0= Number of components put into test
Ns(t) = Number of components survived at time t
Nf(t) = Number of components failed between
time 0 and t
Ns(t) + Nf(t) = N0

Reliability Theory
From definition of Reliability

N f t
Ns t
R (t )
1
N0
N0

Reliability Theory
Hazardous rate or Instantaneous failure
rate is the number of failure per unit
time per number of items exposed for
the same time.

dN f (t ) 1
h(t )
dt N s t

Reliability Theory
In more statistical terms Hazard Rate h(t) is defined as
the probability that a given test item will fail
between t1 and t1+dt1, when it has already survived
to t1.

f (t )
f (t )
h(t )

P (t1 t t1 dt1 t t1
1 F (t ) R (t )
Solving in terms of Hazard or failure Rate

R (t ) exp h(t )dt

0

Hazard or Failure rate for components in the range of 10 -5 to

10-7 per hour exhibits a good commercial level of
reliability.

Definitions

Definitions
Mean Time between Failure T : It is the time

between two successive component failures.

MTBF is similar to MTTF but it is applied for
components or system that are repairable. For a
system of m components, all of different ages,
each with its own MTTF and each which is
immediately replaced on failure.
m
1
1

MTBF j 1 MTTF j

Definitions
Table shows some rough ideas of average failure rates
for different components:

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Constant or Exponential
Failure Rate

This is the most simple and widely used

distribution in reliability engineering.
For special case of constant failure rate, h(t) =

R (t ) exp h(t )dt e t

0

Where:

number of failures
time in which all the components will fail

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Constant or Exponential
Failure Rate

The reciprocal of is MTBF, i,e

1
T

so

R (t ) e t T
If a component is operated for a period equal to
MTBF, the probability of survival is 1/e = 0.37
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Example:

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Variable Failure Rate

Failures are not constant always e.g. for

Relays and thermionic devices and other
mechanical systems
Failure rate is a function of time.
Therefore simple exponential relation for
reliability does not apply
Weibull Function (m) is used to consider
this type of failure:

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System Reliability

Most Mechanical and Electronic Systems

comprise a collection of components

Overall reliability of system depends

upon performance of each and every
component.

Reliability of the system can be defined in

terms of reliability of elements of the
system

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Series System Reliability

If components are so arranged that the

failure of any component causes the
system failure, then it is said to be in
series

System reliability is the product of

component reliabilities
Rsystem = RA x RB x .x Rn

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Series System Reliability

System reliability quickly decreases with

an increase in number of components

For example if there are 20 components

with R = 0.99, the system reliability is
0.9920=0.818

For a system with Constant Failure Rate

Rsystem RA RB e At e B t e ( A B )t

The value of for the system is the sum

of the values of for each component.
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Parallel System Reliability

If components are so arranged that the
failure of all component causes the system
failure, then it is said to be in parallel
System reliability is the product of
component reliabilities

Rsystem 1 (1 RA )(1 RB ).......(1 Rn )

For a constant failure rate:

Rsystem 1 (1 R A )(1 RB ) 1 (1 e At )(1 e B t )

e At e B t e ( A B ) t
Since this is not in the form e-constant the
parallel system has Variable Failure Rate
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Parallel System Reliability

A system in which the components are
arranged to give parallel reliability is said to
be redundant.

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n-out-of-m System
Reliability
Consider a four-engine aircraft that can fly
on 2 engines.
Will lost stability if one engine is operated.
The Reliability of such a system is given by:

Rn / m

m i
R (1 R) m i
in i
m

Where
m
m!

i!( m i )!
i
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Example

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Example

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Maintenance and Repair

Overall system reliability is improved if

repairable component is replaced with
redundant component

Preventive maintenance is aimed at

minimizing system failure

Routine maintenance does not have

major positive effect on reliability
(although absence of Routine
maintenance can cause premature
system failure)

Repair of failed component in a Series

System will not improve reliability, since
the system is not operating
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Maintenance and Repair

Decreasing repair time improve maintainability
and availability
MTBF = MTTF + MTTR
Where
MTBF = Mean time between failure
MTTF = Mean time to failure
MTTR= Mean time to repair

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Maintenance and Repair

If repair rate is r = 1/MTTR then for an active
redundant system:

3 r
MTTF
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Example:
If r = 6 h-1 and = 10-5. Calculate:
1. MTTF with repair
2. MTTF without repair

Answer: 3 x 1010, 1.5 x 105 (hours)

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Maintainability

Probability that a component or system

that has failed will be restored to service
within a given time

MTTF and failure rate measures reliability

MTTR and repair rate measures

maintainability

It is important to predict maintainability

during design of an engineering system

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Maintainability
Maintainability includes:

Time required to determine failure

occurred and diagnose necessary repair
action

Time to carry out necessary repair action

Time required to checkout the unit to

establish that the repair has been
effective and the system is operational

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Maintainability

Maintainability can be calculated as:

M (t ) 1 e rt 1 e t MTTR
Where
M(t) = Maintainability
r = repair rate
t = permissible time for repair

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Availability

Concept which combines both reliability

and maintainability

It is the proportion of time the system is

working on line to the total time, when
that is determined over a longer period of
time

Availabili ty

MTTF
MTTF MTTR

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Design for reliability

The approach can fall between two broad

extremes:
1. Fail-safe approach
2. Absolute-worst case approach

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Fail-safe approach

To identify weak spot in the system or

component

To provide someway to monitor that

weakness

When a weak link fails it is replaced (like a

fuse in a house hold electrical system)

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Absolute-worst case
approach

Use in the worst combination of

parameters

Design is based on the premise that all can

go wrong at the same time

Results in Conservative Approach and

leads to Over design

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Causes of Unreliability

Design mistakes: Exclusion of important

operating factors, incomplete information,
erroneous calculations, poor material selection

Manufacturing defects: Poor surface finish,

cracks/defects during heat treatment, lack of
supervision, instructions, poor working
environment, inadequate training

Maintenance: Lack of maintenance after

operation.

Exceeding design limits: limit of

temperature, speed, load etc

Environmental factors: Non-consideration of

rain, humidity, ice, temperature etc
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Minimizing Failure

Probability of failure for structural

applications Pf < 10-6

Probability of failure for unstressed

applications 10-4 < Pf < 10-3

Read this article

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Failure Mode and Effects

Analysis (FMEA)

It is a team-based methodology for

identifying potential problems with new or
existing designs

Most frequently used hazard-analysis tool

Useful in identifying critical areas of

design that need redundant components
and improved reliability

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Failure Mode and Effects

Analysis (FMEA)
Objective of FMEA:

Prediction of possible failures

Prediction of effect of failure on the

function of the system

Establishment of steps that might be taken

to prevent the failure

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Failure Mode and Effects

Analysis (FMEA)
Factors involved in developing a FMEA:

The severity of failure (Mostly used is

rating 9 & 10) as shown here

Probability of Occurrence the failure is

given in table shown here

Rating for failure detection (before the

product is used by the customer). This
Table give the scale for detection.

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Failure Mode and Effects

Analysis (FMEA)

Back
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Failure Mode and Effects

Analysis (FMEA)

Back
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Failure Mode and Effects

Analysis (FMEA)

Back
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Failure Mode and Effects

Analysis (FMEA)
The practice is to combine the three factors
into a risk priority number (RPN) as:
RPN = (severity of failure) x ( occurrence of
failure) x (detection rating)
Value of RPN can vary between 1000 (the
greatest risk) & 1 ( the minimum risk)

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Failure Mode and Effects

Analysis (FMEA)
Example:

Discussion

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