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<W>
-E-
$732
-B-
An expanding Triangle would explain the “corrective” looking
price behavior between 2001 and 2005 which was followed <X>
by the explosive move into the $732 peak in 2006. $643
(A)
(Y)
-D-
-A- (B) (W)
(C)
(A)
-B-
(B)
B
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Gold Daily ~ Log Scale -E-
-C-
(Y)
“e”
(B)
(D)
“c”
(E)
-A- (A)
“a” - D -?
(W) (C)
“d”
“b”
The B - D line is EXTREMELY important for
(X) Gold bulls. A break of this line would
indicate that this triangle has concluded.
-B-
<X>
$643
This would be the very bullish near term scenario for Gold. This suggests
we’re in the midst of an “expanding” triangle -E- wave which will terminate
the decade long move. Because the (C) wave, which was a clear correction,
was larger than the (A), this is a reasonable count. The last leg of an
expanding triangle should break the (A)-(C) line, which means we would see
a dramatic move closer to $1400/oz.
(C)
-C- $1,250
(Y)
“e”
(A)
(B)
(D) ( D )?
(E)
(A)
-D-
(C)
This would be the bearish count for Gold. This suggests we’re in the midst of
a “neutral” triangle -E-. If this is right, we should see more congestion inside
1166 and 1250 before ultimately rolling over. Under this count, 1250
should not be bettered. So, a break of $1,250 would leave us with only the
bullish model on the previous page.
(C) -E-
-C- $1,250
“a” (E)
(Y) “c”
“e”
(A)
(B) “b”
(D) $1,166
( D )?
(B)
(E)
(A)
-D-
(C)
This looks like a “cup and handle” continuation pattern, which is a bullish
setup. There has been a decent zone of support developed between 1156
and 1169. It won’t make sense to get too bearish on gold until this support
gets taken out.
The “Handle”
Zone of Support
The “Cup”
(Jan, 1980)
$873
A
<W>
<X>
(Nov, 1974) B
$191 $260
(Feb, 2001)?
Because we are only finishing the C-Wave of a Supercycle triangle, the next wave
down will only be a corrective D-wave. It should last several years and be sufficient
to wring out much of the bullish sentiment.
$101
(Aug, 1976)
$35
(Aug, 1970)