Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Mid-Term Exam
Due Day: Oct. 20 (Noon)
Note:
(a) Do not send me after copying your computer
results. Answer formulations and these solutions.
(b) Put your mailing address so that I will be able to
return your exam result via US postal service.
(c) Answer on a PPS that has many slides.
4 x1 2 x2 x3 x4 5
3 x1 x2 2 x3 x4 4
x1 0, x2 0, x3 0, x4 0.
B a sic
V a ria b le
E q.
(0 )
(1 )
(2 )
x2
x4
R ig ht
x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6
1
-1
-1
S id e
C
J
START
FINISH
F
B
E
D
I
G
Optimistic
Estimate
28 weeks
22 weeks
26 weeks
14 weeks
32 weeks
40 weeks
12 weeks
16 weeks
26 weeks
12 weeks
Most Likely
Estimate
32 weeks
28 weeks
36 weeks
16 weeks
32 weeks
52 weeks
16 weeks
20 weeks
34 weeks
16 weeks
Pessimistic
Estimate
36 weeks
32 weeks
46 weeks
18 weeks
32 weeks
74 weeks
24 weeks
26 weeks
42 weeks
30 weeks
(a) Find the estimate of the mean and variance of the duration of
each activity.
(b) Find the mean critical path.
(c) Find the approximate probability that the project will finish
within 100 weeks.
(d) Is the approximate probability obtained in part (c) likely to
Strategy
Player 1
1
2
3
4
1
1
2
0
-4
2
-3
3
4
0
Player 2
3
2
0
-1
-2
4
-2
3
-3
2
5
1
-2
2
1
EMGT 501
HW #5
Answer
15.3-11
(a)
State of Nature
Alternative
Success
Unsuccess
Depelop new product
1,500,000 -1,800,000
Don't develop new product
0
0
Prior probabilities
0.667
0.333
(b)
State of Nature
Expected
Alternative
Success
Unsuccess Payoff
Depelop new product
1,500,000 -1,800,000 400,000 Maximum
Don't develop new product
0
0
0
Prior probabilities
0.667
0.333
(c)
State of Nature
Alternative
Success
Unsuccess
Depelop new product
1,500,000 -1,800,000
Don't develop new product
0
0
Prior probabilities
0.667
0.333
Maximum Payoff
1,500,000
0
(d)
Data:
State of
Nature
Success
Unsuccess
P(Finding | State)
Prior
Finding
Probability Success Unsuccess
0.6666667
0.8
0.2
0.3333333
0.3
0.7
Posterior
Probabilities
Finding
Success
Unsuccess
P(State | Finding)
State of Nature
P(Finding) Success
Unsuccess
0.6666667 0.842105 0.157894737
0.3333333 0.363636 0.636363636
(e)
0.8421(1,500,000) 0,1579(1,800,000)
$979,000
E[ p (a2 , | pred. succ.)] 0
E[ p (a1 , | pred. no succ.)]
0.3636(1,500,000) 0.6364(1,800,000)
$ 600,000
E[ p (a2 , | pred. no succ.)] 0
Optimal a1 if pred. success, a2 if not.
p(pred. success)
p(pred. success | 1)p(1) p(pred. success | 2 )p(2 )
3 0.3 13 0.633
0. 8 2