Chapter10 Section1

Chapter 10
Section 1
The Language of
Hypothesis Testing
Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 1 of 34
Chapter 10 Section 1
Learning objectives
Determine the null and alternative hypotheses from a
claim
2 Understand Type I and Type II errors
3
State conclusions to hypothesis tests
1
Learning objectives
claim
3
1
The environment of our problem is that we want
to test whether a particular claim is believable, or
not
The process that we use is called hypothesis
testing
This is one of the most common goals of
statistics
Hypothesis testing involves two steps
Step 1 to state what we think is true
Step 2 to quantify how confident we are in our claim
The first step is relatively easy

The second step is why we need statistics
We are usually told what the claim is, what the
goal of the test is
Now similar to estimation in the previous
chapter, we will again use the material in
Chapter 8 on the sample mean to quantify how
confident we are in our claim
An example of what we want to quantify
A car manufacturer claims that a certain model of car
achieves 29 miles per gallon
We test some number of cars
We calculate the sample mean it is 27
Is 27 miles per gallon consistent with the
manufacturers claim? How confident are we that the
manufacturer has significantly overstated the miles
per gallon achievable?
How confident are we that the gas economy is
definitely less than 29 miles per gallon?
We would like to make either a statement
Were pretty sure that
the mileage is less than 29 mpg
or
Its believable that the
mileage is equal to 29 mpg
A hypothesis test for an unknown parameter is a
test of a specific claim
Compare this to a confidence interval which gives an
interval of numbers, not a believe it or dont believe
it answer
The level of significance represents the

confidence we have in our conclusion
How do we state our claim?
Our claim
Is the statement to be tested
Is called the null hypothesis
Is written as H0 (and is read as H-naught)
How do we state our counter-claim?
Our counter-claim
Is the opposite of the statement to be tested
Is called the alternative hypothesis
Is written as H1 (and is read as H-one)
There are different types of null hypothesis /
alternative hypothesis pairs, depending on the
claim and the counter-claim
One type of H0 / H1 pair, called a two-tailed test,
tests whether the parameter is either equal to,
versus not equal to, some value
H0: parameter = some value
H1: parameter some value
An example
example of
of aa two-tailed
two-tailed test
test
A bolt manufacturer
manufacturer claims
claimsthat
thatthe
thediameter
diameterofof
the bolts average
average 10
10 mm
mm
H00: Diameter
Diameter == 10
10
H11: Diameter
Diameter 10
10
An alternative
alternative hypothesis
hypothesis of
of
10
10isisappropriate
appropriate
since
A
A sample
sample diameter
diameter that
that is
is too
too high
high isisaaproblem
problem
A
A sample
sample diameter
diameter that
that is
is too
too low
lowisisalso
alsoaaproblem
problem
Thus this is a two-tailed test

Another type of pair, called a left-tailed test, tests
whether the parameter is either equal to, versus
less than, some value
H1: parameter < some value
An example
example of
of aa left-tailed
left-tailed test
test
A car manufacturer
manufacturer claims
claims that
thatthe
thempg
mpgofofaa
certain model
model car
car is
is at
at least
least29.0
29.0
H00: MPG
MPG == 29.0
29.0
H11: MPG
MPG << 29.0
29.0
An alternative
hypothesis of
of<
<29
29isisappropriate
appropriate
since
A
A mpg
mpg that
that is
is too
too low
low is
is aa problem
problem
A
A mpg
mpg that
that is
is too
too high
high is
is not
not aa problem
problem
Thus this is a left-tailed test

Another third type of pair, called a right-tailed
test, tests whether the parameter is either equal
to, versus greater than, some value
H1: parameter > some value
An example
example of
of aa right-tailed
right-tailedtest
test
A bolt manufacturer
manufacturer claims
claimsthat
thatthe
thedefective
defectiverate
of
their
product
is at most
1 part1inpart
1,000
rate
of their
product
is at most
in 1,000
H00: Defect
Defect Rate
Rate == 0.001
0.001
H11: Defect
Defect Rate
Rate >> 0.001
0.001
An alternative
hypothesis of
of>
>0.001
0.001isis
appropriate
appropriate since
since
A
A defect
defect rate
rate that
that is
is too
too low
low isis not
not aa problem
problem
A
A defect
defect rate
rate that
that is
is too
too high
high is
is aa problem
problem
Thus this is a right-tailed test

A comparison of the three types of tests
The null hypothesis
We believe that this is true
The alternative hypothesis

Type of test
Sample value
that is too low
Sample value
that is too high
Two-tailed test
A problem
A problem
Left-tailed test
A problem
Not a problem
Not a problem
A problem
Right-tailed test
A manufacturer claims that there are at least two
scoops of cranberries in each box of cereal
What would be a problem?
The parameter to be tested is the number of scoops
of cranberries in each box of cereal
If the sample mean is too low, that is a problem
If the sample mean is too high, that is not a problem
This is a left-tailed test

The bad case is when there are too few
A manufacturer claims that there are exactly 500
mg of a medication in each tablet
The parameter to be tested is the amount of a
medication in each tablet
If the sample mean is too low, that is a problem
If the sample mean is too high, that is a problem too
This is a two-tailed test

A bad case is when there are too few
A bad case is also where there are too many
A manufacturer claims that there are at most 8
grams of fat per serving
The parameter to be tested is the number of grams of
fat in each serving
If the sample mean is too low, that is not a problem
If the sample mean is too high, that is a problem
This is a right-tailed test

The bad case is when there are too many
There are two possible results for a hypothesis
test
If we believe that the null hypothesis could be
true, this is called not rejecting the null
hypothesis
Note that this is only we believe could be
If we are pretty sure that the null hypothesis is

not true, so that the alternative hypothesis is
true, this is called rejecting the null hypothesis
Note that this is we are pretty sure that is
Learning objectives
claim
3
1
In comparing our conclusion (not reject or reject
the null hypothesis) with reality, we could either
be right or we could be wrong
When we reject (and state that the null hypothesis is
false) but the null hypothesis is actually true
When we not reject (and state that the null hypothesis
could be true) but the null hypothesis is actually false
These would be undesirable errors
A summary of the errors is
We see that there are four possibilities in two

of which we are correct and in two of which we
are incorrect
When we reject (and state that the null
hypothesis is false) but the null hypothesis is
actually true this is called a Type I error
When we do not reject (and state that the null
hypothesis could be true) but the null hypothesis
is actually false this called a Type II error
In general, Type I errors are considered the
more serious of the two
A very good analogy for Type I and Type II errors
is in comparing it to a criminal trial
In the US judicial system, the defendant is
innocent until proven guilty
Thus the defendant is presumed to be innocent
The null hypothesis is that the defendant is innocent
H0: the defendant is innocent
If the defendant is not innocent, then
The defendant is guilty
The alternative hypothesis is that the defendant is
guilty
H1: the defendant is guilty
The summary of the set-up

Our possible conclusions
Reject the null hypothesis
Go with the alternative hypothesis
We vote guilty
Do not reject the null hypothesis

Go with the null hypothesis
We vote not guilty (which is not the same as voting
innocent!)
A Type I error
Reject the null hypothesis
The null hypothesis was actually true
We voted guilty for an innocent defendant
A Type II error
Do not reject the null hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis was actually true
We voted not guilty for a guilty defendant
Which error do we try to control?
Type I error (sending an innocent person to jail)
The evidence was beyond reasonable doubt
We must be pretty sure
Very bad! We want to minimize this type of error
A Type II error (letting a guilty person go)

The evidence wasnt beyond a reasonable doubt
We werent sure enough
If this happens well its not as bad as a Type I
error (according to the US system)
Learning objectives
claim
3
1
Innocent versus Not Guilty
This is an important concept
Innocent is not the same as not guilty
Innocent the person did not commit the crime
Not guilty there is not enough evidence to convict
that the reality is unclear
To not reject the null hypothesis doesnt mean

that the null hypothesis is true just that there
isnt enough evidence to reject
Summary: Chapter 10 Section 1

A hypothesis test tests whether a claim is
believable or not, compared to the alternative
We test the null hypothesis H0 versus the
alternative hypothesis H1
If there is sufficient evidence to conclude that H0
is false, we reject the null hypothesis
If there is insufficient evidence to conclude that
H0 is false, we do not reject the null hypothesis

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Chapter 10

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 1 of 34

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 2 of 34

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 3 of 34

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 4 of 34

The first step is relatively easy

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 5 of 34

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 6 of 34

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 7 of 34

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 8 of 34

The level of significance represents the

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 9 of 34

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 10 of 34

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 11 of 34

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 12 of 34

Thus this is a two-tailed test

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 14 of 34

Thus this is a left-tailed test

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 16 of 34

Thus this is a right-tailed test

The alternative hypothesis

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 18 of 34

This is a left-tailed test

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 19 of 34

This is a two-tailed test

This is a right-tailed test

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 21 of 34

If we are pretty sure that the null hypothesis is

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 23 of 34

These would be undesirable errors

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 24 of 34

We see that there are four possibilities in two

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 26 of 34

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 27 of 34

The summary of the set-up

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 28 of 34

Do not reject the null hypothesis

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 30 of 34

A Type II error (letting a guilty person go)

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 32 of 34

To not reject the null hypothesis doesnt mean

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 33 of 34

Summary: Chapter 10 Section 1

Sullivan Fundamentals of Statistics 2nd Edition Chapter 10 Section 1 Slide 34 of 34

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