SEMINAR ON

Frequency Analysis Of Annual

Daily Maximum Rainfall
Presented by:

MEGHANA N
14GAMC7003

1stsem M.E, Water resource engineering

Under the guidance of :

Dr. A. V. SRIRAM
Asst professor, Department of Civil Engineering
UVCE, Bangalore

INTRODUCTION
Hydrologic systems are sometimes

impacted by extreme events

Extreme events
Floods
Droughts
Rainfall
Magnitude of extreme events is inversely

related to their frequency of occurrence

Magnitude

1
Frequency of occurence

Rainfall is one of the most important natural

input resources and its occurrence and

distribution is erratic, temporal and spatial
variations in nature
Though the rainfall is erratic and varies with

time and space, one of the important problems

in hydrology deals with the interpreting past
records of hydrological event in terms of future
probabilities of occurrence.
It is commonly possible to predict the

magnitude of rainfall at desired return periods

through frequency analysis.

The

objective of frequency analysis is to relate the

magnitude of events to their frequency of occurrence

through probability distribution.

The

following assumptions are made during frequency

analysis
The data to be analyzed describe random events.
The data is homogeneous

It is of good quality

The data should be relevant, adequate and accurate

 The hydrologic data employed should be carefully

selected so that the assumptions of independence

and identical distribution are satisfied.
An extreme value series

It includes the largest values occurring in each of

the equally-long time intervals of the record. The
time interval length is usually taken as one year,
and a series so selected is called an annual series.

 Annual Maximum series

This is often obtained by selecting the annual daily maximum
rainfall which is the largest instantaneous peak occurring at any
time during the year of the variable being

analyzed with the

exception that successive observations of this variable from year

to year will be independent.

Partial duration series

The hydrologic data series includes a complete duration series
consists of all the data available, whereas, a partial duration series
is a series of data which are selected so that their magnitude is
greater than a predefined base value.

Annual exceedence series

In partial duration series, the peak values are selected such that
the number of values is equal to the number of years of the record,
this series is called an annual exceedence series.

In the present study an annual daily maximum rainfall data for 36

years (1973 to 2008) of Devanahalli taluk is being considered.

Probability and frequency analysis of rainfall data enables us to
determine the expected rainfall at desired return periods.
The probability distribution functions most commonly used to

estimate the rainfall frequency are normal, log-normal, logPearson type-III and extreme value distribution.
A theoretical analysis of extreme hydrologic phenomena has led

researchers ( Zaharim et al.,2009 ) to identify Gumbel distribution

as a standard distribution for frequency analysis of recorded
extreme hydrologic events, such as rainfall, flood, temperature,
evaporation, etc; and hence used in the present study.

2. MATERIAL AND METHODOLOGY

The methodology involves collecting the

preliminary details and rainfall data of the

study area and statistical analysis of
hydrological data collected for 36 years;
certain calculations are made in order to
determine some of the basic properties
inherent in the data.
The data is used to fit probability distributions
which in turn are used to extrapolate recorded
events to predict the future frequency of
occurrence at desired return periods.

STUDY AREA
Devanahalli taluk is one of the eight taluks of

Bangalore (R) District, has a geographical area of

448.12 sq. kms, 8 per cent of that of the District
total area.
The Taluk is mainly dependent on ground water for
agriculture, industrial and domestic purposes.
The net irrigated area is 8587 hectares, of which
1400 hectares is irrigated by surface water (tanks,
canals, etc) forming 16% to the net irrigated area
and remaining 84% is irrigated through ground
water (wells, bore wells).
[ Taluk industrial development plan, Department of
Information & Communication, TECSOK, (2005)]

Data used
Daily rainfall data of Devanahalli rain gauge station at

131448"N latitude and 774257"E longitude has

been used for the present study. Time series rainfall
records for the period of 36 years (1973 to 2008) have
been collected from the Indian meteorological
department, Bengaluru.
Annual maximum daily rainfall was sorted out from
these data and statistical techniques are used for
data analysis.
The statistical behavior of any hydrological series can
be described on the basis of certain parameters. The
computation of statistical parameters includes mean,
standard deviation, coefficient of variation and
coefficient of skewness are taken as measures of
variability of hydrological series.

Return period
Return period or recurrence interval is the average
interval of time within which any extreme event of
given magnitude will be equaled or exceeded at least
once (Patra, 2001).
It is the time period over which it is likely that a
particular magnitude rainfall will occur.
Return period is calculated by Weibull's plotting position
formula (Chow, 1964) by arranging one day maximum
daily rainfall in descending order giving their
respective rank as:
T = (N+1)/R
Where, N - the total number of years of record and
R the rank of observed rainfall values
arranged in descending order.

Return Period
Random variable:
X
Threshold level: xT
X if:
xT
Extreme event occurs
Time between ocurrences of X xT
Recurrence interval:

Return Period:
E ( )
Average recurrence interval between events
equaling or exceeding a threshold
If p is the probability of occurrence of an

extreme event,
then
1
E ( ) T
p

or

1
P ( X xT )
T

Frequency analysis using frequency factors

Frequency or probability distribution helps to relate the magnitude of extreme

hydrologic events like floods, droughts and severe storms with their number of
occurrence such that their chance of occurrence with time can be predicted
successfully.
The magnitude X T of a hydrologic event may be represented as the mean plus the

departure
XT of the variate from the mean.
XT = +XT
The departure may be taken as equal to the standard deviation and a frequency
factor KT:
that is, XT = KT .
The departure XT and the type of probability distribution to be used in the analysis.
Equation may therefore be expressed as
XT = +KT

 Extreme values are selected maximum or minimum

values of set of data. The annual maximum rainfall at

a given location is the largest recorded rainfall value
during a year, and the annual maximum rainfall
values for each year of historical record make up a set
of extreme values that can be analyzed statistically.
For the extreme value Type 1 Gumbel distribution.

Chow (1953) derived the expression

KT = 6/{0.5772 + ln[ln(T/(T-1))]}

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

R
A
I
N
F
A
L
L
(
m
m
)

ANNUAL DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL

200
180

187.2

160
140
120
100
ANNUAL DAILY MAXIMUM
RAINFALL

80
60
40
20

35.2

TIME IN YEARS

Figure 1: Annual daily maximum rainfall for

36 years
Figure 1 shows
the variation in annual daily maximum rainfall for 36
years. The maximum (187.2 mm) and minimum (35.2 mm) annual one
day maximum rainfall was recorded during the year 1984 (11 - July) and
1985 (28- May) respectively. The average annual rainfall of 36 years was
found to be 847 mm. It is observed that the area receives maximum
rainfall from southwest monsoon from June to September and from the

 Statistical parameters of annual one day maximum

rainfall
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Average -79.9 mm
Standard deviation-35.05 mm
Coefficient of variation-0.438
Skewness-1.179
Kurtosis-1.239
Variance-1228.62 mm2

The average, standard deviation, coefficient of

variation, skewness, kurtosis and variance values of

ADMR for 36 years . The average for these 36 years
was found to be 79.9mm. It was also observed that 12
years received annual daily maximum rainfall above
the average. These statistical parameters can be used
to find the estimated one day maximum rainfall from
Gumbel probability distribution function at desired
return periods. It is positively skewed and platokurtic.

Annual maximum series

200.0
187.2
180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
RAINFALL(mm)

100.0
REARRANGED
DATA(mm)

80.0
60.0
35.2

40.0
20.0
0.0

RANK

Figure 2: Annual maximum values arranged in the order of

magnitude

The annual maximum rainfall intensity for certain duration is

the largest of all observed values in a year. As there is only one
value of annual maximum recorded in a year, the number of
annual maxima in a period of observation is equal to the

When all observed data in 36 years of observation

are arranged in a descending order of magnitude,

the top 36 values are named as the annual
exceedances.
The minimum ADMR value 35.2 mm is selected as
the base value and series of data is selected so
that their magnitude is greater than the
predefined base value and the number of values
in the series is equal to the number of years of
the record
Thus 36 values of annual exceedence series in
order of their magnitude for the 36 year daily
rainfall data is arranged graphically is shown in
figure 3

Annual exceedence series

200.0
180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0

Rainfall ( mm )

RAINFALL
DATA

100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0

Time in years
Figure 3: Annual exceedence data arranged in the order of
magnitude

Statistical parameters of annual exceedence series

Average -93.3mm
Standard deviation-26.12mm
Coefficient of variation-0.279
Skewness-1.89
Kurtosis-3.89
Variance-682.58mm2
The average of annual exceedence series for 36
years ADMR is found to be 93.13 mm. It can also
be observed that the average of annual
exceedence series (93.13 mm) is more than
annual maximum series (79.9 mm). The standard
deviation (35.05 mm) and coefficient of variation
(0.438) of annual maximum series was found to
be more than the standard deviation
(26.12
mm) and coefficient of variation (0.279) annual

ANNUAL EXCEEDENCE AND ANNUAL MAXIMUM SERIES

M
A
G
N
I
T
U
D
E
(
m
m
)

ANNUAL MAXIMA
ANNUAL EXCEEDANCE

RANK

Figure 4: Annual exceedence and annual

The figure 4 shows the annual exceedence

and annual maximum values in order of

their magnitude; The figure shows that
many annual exceedances exceed the
annual maxima in magnitude, in this
particular case only 10 of the 36 annual
maxima appear in the annual exceedence
series.
It is generally recommended that 2 to 100
years is sufficient return period for soil and
water conservation measures, construction
of dams, irrigation and drainage works
(Bhakar et al. , 2006).

Table 1: Values of Annual maximum and

exceedence series at different return periods

annual

RETURN PERIOD

FREQUENCY

ANNUAL

( YEARS )

FACTOR (KT)

MAXIMUM VALUES EXCEEDANCE

ANNUAL

(XT) ( mm)

VALUES (XT)
( mm )

-0.164251647

73.4

89.0

0.719368094

104.4

112.0

10

1.304401248

124.9

127.3

15

1.634472011

136.4

135.9

20

1.865579096

144.5

142.0

25

2.04359219

150.8

146.6

30

2.188410867

155.8

150.4

35

2.310492182

160.1

153.6

40

2.416017242

163.8

156.4

45

2.508945443

167.1

158.8

50

2.591966258

170.0

161.0

55

2.666990274

172.6

162.9

60

2.735423662

175.0

164.7

65

2.798331472

177.2

166.3

70

2.856539766

179.3

167.9

75

2.910702173

181.2

169.3

80

2.961344775

182.9

170.6

85

3.008897277

184.6

171.8

90

3.053715202

186.2

173.0

95

3.096096036

187.7

174.1

The magnitude of annual maximum rainfall and annual

exceedence rainfall at return periods of 2, 5, 10, 15, 20,

25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, 75 ,80, 85,90, 95
and 100 years is estimated respectively in table 1.
The magnitude of annual maximum rainfall and annual
exceedence rainfall for 36 years was plotted against
return period in years which was calculated from Weibulls
method and presented in figure 5 and figure 6
respectively.
It was observed that according to the gumbel distribution,
minimum ADMR of 73.4 mm and minimum annual
exceedence rainfall of 89 mm can be expected to occur at
two year return period and maximum ADMR of 189.1mm
and maximum annual exceedence of 175.2 mm can be
expected to occur at 100 year return period.
Greater the return period, larger the magnitude of rainfall.

annual maximum series

200
M
A
G
N
I
T
U
D
E
(
m
m
)

180
160
140
120
100

annual maximum series

80
60
40
20
0
1

10

100

RETURN PERIOD IN YEARS

Figure 5: Gumbel distribution for annual maximum

values at desired return periods

annual exceedence series

200

M
A
G
N
I
T
U
D
E

180
160
140
120
100

annual exceedence series

80
60

(
m
m
)

40
20
0
1

10

100

RETURN PERIOD IN YEARS

Figure 6: Gumbel distribution for annual exceedence values at desired

return periods

CONCLUSION

The

maximum (187.2 mm) and minimum (35.2 mm) annual one day maximum

rainfall was recorded during the year 1984 (11 - July) and 1985 (28- May)
respectively .

The

area receives maximum rainfall from the southwest monsoon from June to

September and from the northeast monsoon from October to November.

The

mean value of 36 year ADMR was found to be 79.9 mm with standard

deviation and coefficient of variation of 35.05 and 0.438 respectively. The

skewness was observed to be 1.179. It was also observed that 12 years received
annual daily maximum rainfall above the average. It is positively skewed and
platokurtic.

The

mean value of 36 year annual exceedence series was found to be 93.3 mm

with standard deviation and coefficient of variation of 26.12 and 0.279

respectively. The skewness was observed to be 1.89. It is positively skewed and
leptokurtic.

 The maximum ( 187.2 mm ) and minimum ( 70 mm ) annual

exceedence of annual one day maximum rainfall was

recorded during the year 1984 ( 11 July ) and 1994 ( 25August ) respectively.
It is also observed that the average of annual exceedence

series (93.13 mm) is more than annual maximum series

(79.9 mm). The standard deviation

(35.05 mm) and

coefficient of variation (0.438) of annual maximum series

was found to be more than the standard deviation
(26.12 mm) and coefficient of variation (0.279) annual
exceedence series.
In the annual exceedence and annual maximum values

arranged

in

order

of

their

magnitude,

many

annual

exceedances exceed the annual maxima in magnitude, but

It was observed that according to the gumbel

distribution, minimum ADMR of 79.4 mm and minimum
annual exceedence rainfall of 89 mm can be expected
to occur at two year return period and maximum ADMR
of 189.1 mm and maximum annual exceedence of 175.2
mm can be expected to occur at 100 year return period.
Greater the return period, larger the magnitude of
rainfall .

The results of this study would be useful for agricultural

scientists, decision makers, policy planners and

researchers
for
agricultural
development
and
constructions of small soil and water conservation
structures, irrigation and drainage systems.

References
Vivekanandan,

N. (2012). Intercomparison of Extreme Value

Distributions for Estimation of ADMR. International Journal of Applied
Engineering and Technology, 2(1) : 30-37.

Chow, V. T., D. R. Maidment and L. W. Mays (1988). Applied Hydrology,

McGraw-Hill, USA.
Agarwal, M. C., V. S. Katiyar and Ram Babu (1988). Probability analysis

of annual maximum daily rainfall of U. P., Himalaya. Indian Journal of

Soil Conservation, 16(1) : 35-42.
Vivekanandan,

N. (2012). Intercomparison of Extreme Value

Distributions for Estimation of ADMR. International Journal of Applied
Engineering and Technology, 2(1) : 30-37.

Bhim

Singh, Deepak Rajpurohit, Amol Vasishth and Jitendra

Singh(2012). probability analysis for estimation of annual one day
maximum rainfall of Jhalarapatan area of Rajasthan, India. Plant
Archives, Vol. 12 No. 2,pp. 1093-1100.

Ojha C.S.O, R. Berndtsson, P Bhunya (2008). Engineering Hydrology,

Oxford university press, India.

Zaharim .A, A.M.

Razali, R.Z. Abidin and K. Sopian, Fitting of

Statistical Distributions to Wind Speed Data in Malaysia, European
Journal of Scientific Research, Vol. 26, No. 1, pp 6-12, 2009.

THANK YOU

Comparing the consistency of rainfall trends at a

station w.r.t monthly data and seasonal data for
Anekal in monsoon season
Kendall' s tau

Months

Kendalls tau

Attibele

Jigani

Kengeri

Bangalore city
obsy

June

0.006

July

-0.078

August

0.123

September

-0.179

Moonsoon

-0.08

-0.064

0.166

-0.005

0.053

-0.075

0.060

-0.011

0.120

0.072

0.221

0.101

0.089

-0.144

-0.035

-0.222

-0.179

0.07

-0.02

-0.05