Lecture

on
Network Analysis - II
By
Dr. D. B. Naik (Ph.D.- Mech. Engg.)
Professor, Training & Placement
Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute
of Technology, Surat

PERT
CPM & PERT Comparison
Statistical aspects - Calculation
Three Time Estimate in PERT
Variance & Standard Deviation
Calculation of Probability
Case Study

CPM - PERT Comparison

CPM

PERT

Deterministic

Probabilistic

No statistics applicable

Statistics Applicable

Activity Oriented

Event Oriented

Single time (tij)

Three time Estimate

(to , tm , tp)

Known Project

New Project

Accuracy - 100 %

Accuracy - Probability

PERT Activity :
i

to - tm - tp

to = a = Optimistic time
tm = m = Most likely time
tp = b = Pessimistic time

B distribution

to

tm

tp

to = a = Optimistic time of activity

tm = m = Most likely time of activity
tp = b = Pessimistic time of activity

to

te

tm

tp

te = Expected time of completion of activity

= (to + 4 tm + tp)/6
weightage given to :
to & tp = 1/6 and
tm = 4/6 = 2/3

ij

to - tm - tp

= Standard deviation variation of

activity duration
=(tp-to) /6

Vij = Variance
=

ij

project

= Standard deviation of project

completion duration

V project

project

( i j ) critical on C . P .

( i j ) critical on C . P .

A
0
Z 0.00 0.01
0.0
0.1
0.2
..
1.0
..
3.0 0.4986

+Z
0.02 . . . . . . . 0.09
0.0359
0.0870
0.3621
0.4990

TE = Expected completion duration of

project based on teij
TS = Scheduled completion duration of
project
Z = (TS - TE) /

project

Case Study :
A project has the following time
estimate in weeks for each of its activities.
to
tm
tp
Activity
1-2
1-3
2-3
2-4
3-4
3-5
4-6
5-6

3
7
3
3
2
3
5
4

6
8
6
5
5
9
8
6

21
27
09
13
08
21
35
08

1. Find expected time of completion of project.

What will be the probability for this
duration ?
2. Which activity is most certain ?
3. Which activity is most uncertain ?
4. Determine the probability of completing the
project in 25 weeks .
5. Determine the probability of completing the
project in 43 weeks .

6. Determine the probability of completing the

project in between 25-43 weeks .
7. Determine the probability of completing the
project after 43 weeks .
8. Determine the project completion duration
for probability of 25% .
9. Determine the project completion duration
for probability of 75% .

Calculation of Expected time and Standard

Deviation of Activities :
Activity

to

tm

tp

te

1-2
1-3
2-3
2-4
3-4
3-5
4-6
5-6

3
7
3
3
2
3
5
4

6
8
6
5
5
9
8
6

21
27
09
13
08
21
35
08

8
11
6
6
5
10
12
6

3
3.33
1
3.33
1
3
5
0.66

Network for given data :

3-6-21

3-5-13
3-6-9

1
7-8-27

5-8-35

2-5-8
3

3-9-21

4-6-8

8
1
11

5
3

12

10

1-2-3-4-6 is Critical Path.

TE = 8+6+5+12
= 31

6
TE=31

8 2
6
=3
=1 4
12
1
6
6

=5
5 =1
TE=31
11
6
3
5
10
V project
V ( i j ) critical on C . P .
=

=
=

project

( i j ) critical on C . P .
2

( i j ) critical on C . P .

8 2
6
=3
=1 4
12
1
6
5 =1 =5
11
6
3
5
10

project

=
=

( i j ) critical on C . P .

3 1 1 5

= 6

6
TE=31

Q.1 Find expected time of completion of

project.What will be the probability for
A.1

this duration ?
8

1
11

12

10
The expected time of completion
of project is 31 weeks

6
TE=31

To get Probability for Ts = 31 :

Z = (TS - TE) /
= 0

for

project

TS = TE

Z= 0
Hence Probability = 0.5 = 50%

A.2 Which activity is most certain ?

Uncertainty of activity is directly
proportional to the value of of the
activity.
Hence
Activity 5-6 is most certain because the
value of

is lowest, which is 0.66.

A.3 Which activity is most uncertain ?

Activity 4-6 is most uncertain
because the value of
is highest, which is 5.

Q.4 Determine the probability of completing

the project in 25 weeks ?
A.4
TS = 25

Z = -1

Z = (25-31)/6 = -1

For Z=1

Z= 1
A= 0.3413

Hence for Z= -1

Prob.= 0.5 - 0.3413

= 0.1587
Hence Probability = 0.1587
= 15.87%

Q.5 Determine the probability of completing

the project in 43 weeks ?
A.5
TS = 43

Z = (43-31)/6 = 2

Z=2

Z= 2
For Z=2

A= 0.4772

Hence for Z= 2

Prob.= 0.5 + 0.4772

= 0.9772
Hence Probability = 0.9772
= 97.72%

Q.6 Determine the probability of completing

the project in between 25-43 weeks ?
A.6
For TS Between 25 and 43

Z = -1

Z=2

For TS Between 25 and 43

0.3413 0.4772
Z = -1

Z=2

Hence Probability = 0.3413 + 0.4772

= 0.8185

Q.7 Determine the probability of completing

the project after 43 weeks ?
A.7

For TS Beyond 43
0.4772

Z= 2
Probability = 0.5 - 0.4772
= 0.0228
= 2.28%

Q.8 Determine the project completion

A.8

duration for probability of 25% ?

For Probability of 25 %

0.25
Z = -0.675
-0.675 = (TS - 31)/6
Hence TS = 27 weeks

Q.9 Determine the project completion

duration for probability of 75% ?
A.9

For Probability of 0.75 %

0.25
Z= 0.675

0.675 = (TS - 31)/6

TS = 35 weeks

RECAPITULATION
CPM & PERT Comparison
Statistical aspects - Calculation
Three Time Estimate in PERT
Variance & Standard Deviation
Calculation of Probability
Case Study

GATE PROBLEM

For the network shown below, the variance along C.P.

is 4. The probability of completion of the project in 24
days is :
(a) 68.2 %
6

(b) 84.1 % (c) 95.4 %

3
2
4

10

(d) 97.7 %

5
6

 1 68.26%
99.72%

2 95.44%

for project = Sqrt. 4 = 2

Variance = 4

Z = (TS TE) /
= (24 20) / 2
= 2
Probability =
Z=2
= 50 + (95.44/2)
= 97.7 %

GATE PROBLEM
In PERT network activity a = 9 days b = 21 days
and m = 15 days. The approx. probability of
completion of this activity in 13 days is :
(a) 16%

(b) 34%

(c) 50%

(d) 84%

te = Expected time of completion of activity

= (to + 4 tm + tp)/6
= (9 + 60 + 21)/6
= 15

 = (21 9) / 6 = 2
Z = (TS TE) /
= (13 15) / 2
=1
Probability =
Z = -1
= 50 (68.26/2)
= 15.87 %

GATE PROBLEM : 2005

A project has six activities (A to F) with
respective activity durations 7,5,6,6,8,4 days.
The network has three CPs as A-B, C-D and EF. All the activities can be crashed with the same
crash cost per day. The number of activities that
need to be crashed to reduce the project duration
by 1 day is :
(a) 1

(b) 2

(c) 3

(d) 6

GATE QUESTION
In PERT, the distribution of activity times is
assumed to be :
(a) Normal
(b) Gamma
(c) Beta
(d) Exponential

Home Assignments (Crashing) :

following table gives the activities in construction project with
[1] The
their normal and crash duration alongwith associated direct costs.
Activity Preceding
Normal
Crash
Activity Duration Direct Cost Duration Direct Cost
12

180

220

23

12

14

150

220

36

1 2, 2 3

12

180

240

14

240

300

45

14

12

80

11

200

200

400

5 6 indirect
1 4,cost
4 5Rs. 40 6per day.
Consider
(i)

Draw the network and determine critical path based on normal

duration. (Tn = 32, Cost = 2310)

( ii )

What will be the minimum duration in which the project can be

completed ? Find corresponding total cost. (Tmin = 20, Cost = 2220)

( iii )

What will be optimum duration of the project completion ?

[2]

Find the optimum duration of the project completion from the

following data. Consider indirect cost as Rs. 120 per day

Activity

Duration

Cost Slope (Rs./day)

Normal

Crash

12

60

23

85

24

11

65

25

34

90

45

70

56

240

[3]

A project composed of the following activities, has time estimates as

shown below. Determine the probability of competing project in 14
weeks. Also find project completion time for 25%, 50% and 75%
probability.

Activity

12

13

24

14

25

15

36

46

57

67

14

[ 4 ] For a PERT network of a project 1-2-3-5 is

a critical path.
Activity

12

23

35

10

16

Find the probability of completing the project in

( a ) 20 days and ( b ) 15 days.

Typical
Questions

[ 1 ] Based on following data of a PERT network of a

project, answer the questions given below.
Activity
A
Imm. Predecessors
to (days)
2

C D E F G
A B B D E

H
C

I
F,G

tm (days)

9 11 4 11 5 13

tp (days)

8 14 27 29 7 17 14 31

( i )
Draw the network and find expected completion
duration of project.

( ii ) Calculate standard deviation of project completion

duration.
( iii ) Which activities are most certain ?
( iv ) Calculate probability of completing the project in 38 days.
( v ) What will be the project completion duration for 50%
probability ?

[ 2 ] From following data of a project, estimate

minimum completion duration of project along with
corresponding total cost. Indirect cost is given as
Rs.
20 per day.
Activity

12
Normal Duration (days)
9

13
8

14
15

24
5

34
10

45
2

12

Normal Cost (Rs.)

200

180

300

100

300

120

Crash Cost (Rs.)

260

255

390

120

360

160

Crash Duration (days)

[ 3 ] A small project details are given below. Consider

indirect cost as Rs. 60 per day and total normal
direct cost as Rs. 1500. Find least completion
duration of this project and corresponding total
cost.
Normal
Crash duration
Activities
duration (days)
(days)
12
9
6
13
8
5
14
15
10
24
5
3
34
10
6
45
2
1

Cost slope
(Rs./day)
20
25
30
10
15
40

[ 4 ] From the data of a project, given below, answer

the questions.
Activity
to
tm
tp

(i)

12
1
1
7
13
1
4
7
14
2
2
8
25
1
1
1
35
2
5
14
46
2
5
8
56
3
6
15
Find expected time of project completion.

( ii ) Find standard deviation of project completion

duration.
( iii ) What is the probability that the project will be
completed in 20 days ?

Thank you
For any Query or suggestion :
Contact :
Dr. D. B. Naik

Professor & Head, Training & Placement (T&P)

S. V. National Institute of Technology (SVNIT),
Ichchhanath, Surat 395 007 (Gujarat) INDIA.
Email ID :

dbnaik@gmail.com
dbnaik@svnit.ac.in
dbnaik_svr@yahoo.com

Phone No. : 0261-2201540 (D), 2255225 (O)