China:

Threat or Opportunity or
Both

China, with Provinces

What We Know Already

1949: Communist victory; Nationalist
defeat
PRC vs. ROC
1972: Nixon to China
1979: US-China normalization

What is Taiwan?
China: A Province of China
US: A part of a united China, united in
some undefined way and how that
works is up to Taiwan and China as
long as it is done peacefully
Taiwan: Taiwan is a part of China

Changes since 1970s

Taiwan democracy
Lee Teng-hui
1988-2000

Chen shui-bian
2000-2008

Ma Ying-jeou
2008--2016

Pres. Tsia Ing-wen 2016

Chinese Economic Reform

Deng Xiaoping

The Statistics

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/chinese_economic_history/html/1998.stm

Shanghai, China

The Dilemma
Economic reform: yes
Political reform: No
But
Economic
Reform

Calls for
Political reform

Tiananmen Square 1989

June 4, 1989

Bush 41 View

US
USSR

PRC

US Congress View
Jackson-Vanik Amendment to Trade Act
of 1974
President determines that a nonmarket economy nation
denies or imposes more than a nominal tax on those
who emigrate or desire to emigrate, then the products
from any nonmarket economy country shall not be
eligible to receive nondiscriminatory treatment (normal
trade relations)and the President of the United States
shall not conclude any commercial agreement with any
such country.

Most Favored Nation status

Clinton View
What is China?
1. Worst human rights violator on
the planet
2. Biggest of the BEM
1993: China given a deadline of June
1994 for human rights
improvement

 Threat
Opportunity
Both

Chinas Wealth

Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation,
The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://japanfocus.org/-Mark-Selden/3422

South China Sea

Timeline

Chinas Nine-Dash Line

Competing Claims

Oil and Gas

Oil Trade

Natural Gas Trade

Trade Routes

Spratly Islands Disputes

Mischief Reef
Chinese Naval Base
1990s

2010s

Philippine Claim to the Second

Thomas Shoal

Paracel Island Disputes

and Chinese Oil Rig 2014

Air Defense Identification Zones

UN Convention on the Law of the Sea

(UNCLOS) 1982

12 mile limit from a nations coast: legal jurisdiction for the nation
200 miles form a nations coast Exclusive economic rights for the
nation
Dispute resolution mechanism
Direct talks between the parties.
If they fail:
submission of the dispute to the International Tribunal for the Law
of the Sea
adjudication by the International Court of Justice
submission to binding international arbitration procedures
submission to special arbitration tribunals with expertise in
specific types of disputes. All of these procedures involve binding
third-party settlement
Exceptions for cases involving national sovereignty. Parties submit
their dispute to a conciliation commission; results are non-binding.

Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands

Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands

Dokdo/Takeshima Islands

Source: The Economist: www.economist.com/node/17601487

From: Annual Report to Congress

Military Power of the Peoples Republic of China 2009
(http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf. pp 24-5

The Future
1. China as a regional rival
2. China as a peer competitor
A rival with a functioning economy

3. China as an ideological rival

Liberal-democracy vs. Soft
Authoritarianism

4. Integrating China into the world and

taming it
Responsible stakeholder

5. China anti-hegemony: peaceful rise

ButEconomic Interdependence
Chinese Trade (2010)

US Trade (2010)

From Chinese Ministry of Commerce 2009-2010,

From US Census Bureau data; chart from

http://www.globalization101.org/a-snapshot-of-ustrade/

http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/statistic/ie/200901/2
0090105999698.html

Mutual Assured Bankruptcy?

Who owns the Debt 2011? Federal Reserve information
1. US Federal Reserve and other Government Financial Entities
2. Other Investors/Savings Bonds
3. China
4. Japan
5. Pension Funds
6. Money Market Funds/Mutual Funds
7. State and Local Governments in US
8. UK
9. Banks
10.Insurance Companies
11.OPEC nations
12.Brazil
13.Caribbean nations
14.Hong Kong
15.Canada