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The Ocean
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Working
Group II
The Ocean plays a central role in Earths climate and has absorbed 93% of the extra
energy from the enhanced greenhouse effect and approximately 30% of
anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere.
Global average sea surface temperatures have increased since both the beginning of
the 20th century and the 1950s (certain). The average sea surface temperature (SST)
of the Indian, Atlantic, and Pacific Oceans has increased by 0.65C, 0.41C, and
0.31C, respectively, over the period 19502009 (very likely, p-value 0.05).
Uptake of CO2 has decreased ocean pH (approximately 0.1 unit over 100 years),
fundamentally changing ocean carbonate chemistry in all ocean sub-regions,
particularly at high latitudes (high confidence).
Most, if not all, of the Ocean will continue to warm and acidify, although the rates will
vary regionally (high confidence).
Rapid changes in physical and chemical conditions within ocean sub-regions have
already affected the distribution and abundance of marine organisms and
ecosystems.
Recent changes to wind and ocean mixing within the highly productive HLSBS, EBUE,
and EUS are likely to influence energy transfer to higher trophic levels and microbial
processes.
Global warming will result in more frequent extreme events and greater associated
risks to ocean ecosystems (high confidence).
Changes to surface wind and waves, sea level, and storm intensity will increase the
vulnerability of ocean-based industries such as shipping, energy, and mineral
extraction (medium confidence).
Changes to ocean temperature, chemistry, and other factors are generating new
challenges for fisheries, as well as benefits (high agreement).
Adaptation strategies for ocean regions beyond coastal waters are generally poorly
developed but will benefit from international legislation and expert networks, as well
as marine spatial planning (high agreement).
Significant opportunity exists within the Ocean and its sub-regions for reducing the
CO2 flux to the atmosphere (limited evidence, medium agreement).
The AR4 assessment was virtually certain that rising atmospheric carbon
dioxide (CO2) had changed carbonate chemistry of the ocean (i.e.,
buffering capacity, carbonate and bicarbonate concentrations), and that a
decrease in surface pH of 0.1 had occurred over the global ocean
(calculated from the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 between 1750 and 1994;
Sabine et al., 2004; Raven et al., 2005; WGI AR4 Section 5.4.2.3; WGI AR4
Large-scale
Table 7.3). changes in ocean salinity were also observed from 1955 to
1998 and were characterized by a global freshening in sub-polar latitudes
and salinification of shallower parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans
(WGI AR4 Chapter 5 ES, p. 387).
AR4 noted that there is an accumulating body of evidence to suggest that
many marine ecosystems, including managed fisheries, are responding to
changes in regional climate caused predominately by warming of air and
sea surface temperatures (SST) and to a lesser extent by modification of
precipitation regimes and wind patterns (WGII AR4 Section 1.3.4.2, p. 94).
Changes were also observed in coral reefs (primarily increased mass coral
bleaching and mortality) and migratory patterns and trophic interactions of
marine birds, reptiles, and mammals, as well as of a range of other marine
organisms and ecosystems (WGII AR4 Table 1.5), although a separate
exercise in detection and attribution of changes due to climate change (as
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done for terrestrial studies) was not done as part of AR4.
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Aragoniteisacarbonatemineral,
oneofthetwocommon,naturally
occurring,crystalformsof
calciumcarbonate,CaCO3(the
otherformbeingthemineral
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andphysicalprocesses,including
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(Wikipedia)
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Natural
Ecosystems
Economic
Sectors
Fisheries and
Aquaculture
Tropical fisheries
based on large
pelagic fish
Small-scale
fisheries
NH HLSBS
fisheries
Tourism
Shipping
Offshore Energy
and Mineral
Resource
Extraction and
Supply
Human Health
Ocean-based
Mitigation
Deep Sea
Carbon
Sequestration
Offshore
Renewable
Energy
Maritime
Security and
Related
Operations
Major threats to public health include diminished water security and food
supply, extreme weather events, and changes in the distribution and
severity of disease including marine biotoxins.
Climate change in the ocean may influence the distribution of cholera and
may be aggravated further due to ENSO
Negative impacts of disease for human communities are expected to be
more serious in low-income areas such as SE Asia, Southern and Eastern
Africa, and various sub-regions of South America.
Significant risks from injection of high levels of CO2 into deep ocean waters
have been identified for deep sea organisms and ecosystems however, the
chronic effects have not yet been studied.
There exists a specific guideline as to how to store CO2 under the seabed
(amendments to the London Protocol in 2007)
Global technical potential for ocean and wind energy is not as high as solar
energy although considerable potential still remains.
Nation-states are increasingly engaged in operations from humanitarian
assistance in climate-related disasters to territorial issues exacerbated by
changing coastlines, human communities, resource access, and new
seaways
Increase in criminal activities like piracy, IUU fishing, human arms and drug
trafficking are caused by increased cases of climate change-induced poverty
and food scarcity in coastal communities
Climate change will increase pressure at maintaining maritime security,
counter-criminality, disaster relief operations, and freedom of navigation.
Opportunities might also appear such as formation of new ice-free seaways
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across the Artic, but it might also lead to increase international tensions
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