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Regional Context
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Working
Group II
Defining Regions
Part B of this WGII contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report
(AR5) is the first to address regional issues treated in all three
WGs. It consists of chapters on the six major continental land
regions, polar regions, small islands, and the ocean.
The main topics benefiting from a regional treatment are:
Changes in Climate
Changes in other aspects of the climate system
Climate Change Impacts
Adaptive Capacity
Emission of greenhouse gases
Human responses to climate change
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Climate System
Global Context
Observed and Projected Changes (Temperature and
Precipitation)
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Climate System
Global Context
Observed and Projected Changes
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Climate System
Global Context
Observed and Projected Changes
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Climate System
Global Context
Observed and Projected Changes
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Climate System
Global Context
Observed and Projected Changes
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Climate System
Global Context
Observed and Projected Changes (Sea level and Air
Quality)
Projections of regional sea level changes, based both on the CMIP3 and
CMIP5 models, indicate a large regional variability of sea level rise (even
more than 100% of the global mean sea level rise) in response to different
regional processes (WGI AR5 Section 13.6.5).
Some preliminary analysis of the CMIP5 ensembles indicates areas of
maximum steric sea level rise in the Northern Atlantic, the northwestern
Pacific off the East Asia coasts, the eastern coastal oceanic regions of the
Bay of Bengal, and the western coastal regions of the Arabian Sea (WGI
AR5 Section 13.6.5).
Examples of regional studies of air quality changes in response to climate
change over Europe include Langner et al. (2005), Forkel and Knocke
(2006), Meleux et al.
(2007), Szopa and Hauglustaine (2007), Kruger et al. (2008), Engardt et al.
(2009), Andersson and Engardt (2010), Athanassiadou et al. (2010),
Carvalho et al. (2010), Katragkou et al. (2010, 2011), Huszar et al. (2011),
Zanis et al. (2011), and Juda-Rezler et al. (2012). All of these studies
indicated the potential of large increases in near-surface summer ozone
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concentrations especially in Central and Southern Europe due to much
Cross-regional Phenomena
Trade and Financial Flows
Global Trade and international
financial transactions are
inextricably linked to climate
change (WTO and UNEP, 2009)
through a number of other
interrelated pathways that are
expanded here:
(1) as a direct
or indirect cause of anthropogenic
emissions (e.g., Peters et al.,
2011), (2) as contributory factors
for regional vulnerability to the
impacts of climate change (e.g.,
Leichenko and OBrien, 2008), and
(3) through their sensitivity to
climate trends and extreme
climate events (e.g., Nelson et al.,
2009a; Headey, 2011).
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Cross-regional Phenomena
Cross-regional Phenomena
Sensitivity of International Trade to Climate
Community Climate System Model 4
(CCSM4) climate and sea ice model has
been used to provide projections under
RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 forcing of
future accessibility for shipping to the
sea ice hazard zone of the Arctic marine
environment defined by the International
Maritime Organization (IMO) (Stephenson
et al., 2013). Results suggest that
moderately ice-strengthened ships (Polar
Class 6), which are estimated under
baseline (19801999) conditions to be
able to access annually about 36% of the
IMO zone, would increase this access to
45 to 48% by 20112030, 58 to 69% by
20462065, and 68 to 93% by 2080
2099, with almost complete accessibility
projected for summer (90 to 98% in July
to October) by the end of the century
(Stephenson
et al.,
2013). access to the
All
studies imply
increased
three major cross Arctic routes: the
Northwest Passage, Northern Sea Route
(part of the Northeast Passage), and TransPolar Route, which could represent
significant distance savings for transcontinental shipping currently using routes
via the Panama and Suez Canals
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(Stephenson et al., 2011).
Human Migration
There has been considerable debate in recent years around the postulate
that anthropogenic climate change and environmental degradation could
lead to mass migration (Perch-Nielsen et al., 2008; Feng et al., 2010;
Warner, 2010; Black et al., 2011; Foresight, 2011; Assan and Rosenfeld,
2012).
Four possible pathways through which climate change could affect
migration are
suggested by Martin (2009):
1) Intensification of natural disasters
2) Increased warming and drought that affects agricultural production
and access to clean water
3) Sea level rise, which makes coastal areas and some island states
increasingly uninhabitable
4) Competition over natural resources, which leads to conflict and
displacement of inhabitants.
The causal chains and links between climate change and migration are
complex and can be difficult to demonstrate (e.g., Perch-Nielsen et al.,
2008; Piguet, 2010; Tnzler et al., 2010; ADB, 2012; Oliver-Smith, 2012;
Sections 9.3.3.3.1,12.4, 19.4.2.1), though useful insights can be gained
from studying past abandonment of settlements (McLeman, 2011). 27
Impact Analyses
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