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FOREX MARKETS

FOREX MARKET
The market for foreign exchange involves the
Purchase and sale of national currencies.
A foreign exchange market exists because
economies employ national currencies.

If the world economy used a single currency


There would be no need for foreign exchange
markets.

The foreign exchange market is extremely


active . It is primarily an over the counter
market, the exchanges trade futures and
option but most transactions are
OTC.
It is difficult to assess the actual size of the
foreign exchange market because it is traded
in many markets.

Exchange Rates /Quotes


The price of one countrys currency in terms
of another
Most currency is quoted in terms of dollars
The price of a currency in terms of another
currency is called quote
A quote where US dollar is the base currency
is refereed as direct Quote for example
$ 1= 66 , while a quote where USD is
referred to as terms currency is an indirect
quote for example 1 = $.01520
4

A direct quote is a quote where the exchange rate is


expressed in terms of number of units of domestic
currency per unit of foreign currency.
Therefore , when we say $1 = Rs 66 , we are expressing
one unit of dollar ( a foreign currency for an Indian)
in terms of some units of domestic currency
Therefore it is a dollar direct quote for an Indian in India.
( remember that the same quote when quoted in USA
is not a direct quote for an American
5

Example: Exchange Rates


Suppose you have $10,000 , how many Indian
Rupees can you buy?
Exchange rate = Rs 66.00 Rupees per dollar
Buy 10,000 (66.00) = 6,60,000 Rupees

Suppose you are visiting Bombay and you want


to buy a souvenir that costs 1000 Indian
Rupees. How much does it cost in U.S. dollars?
Exchange rate 1 = .0152
1000* .0152 = $ 15.20
6

Market Quotes:
Direct - Indirect Quotes

Direct quote is the home currency price of a


foreign currency.
Indirect quote is the foreign currency price of
the home currency.

The total sum is 200% because each currency trade always involves a currency pair.

Foreign Exchange Markets


Exchange Rate - Amount of one currency needed
to purchase one unit of another currency. $

$1= 1.62

1 = $0.617

$1 = 69

100= $ 1.449

$1 = .9478

1 = $ 1.09315

$1 = 114

100= $ .877

Spot Rate of Exchange the price of currency for


immediate delivery. Recorded by 2nd business
day
Forward Exchange Rate the price of currency
for delivery at sometime in the future.
9

American terms & European terms


American terms
US dollar price per unit of
foreign currency

European terms
Foreign currency
units per dollar

Example Rs1= $.01449


1 = $ 1.09

Example $1 = Rs 69
$1 = .9478

A direct quote in the United


States

A direct quote outside


the United States

A indirect quote outside the


United States

An indirect quote in
the United State

10

BID , ASK SPREAD


BID & ASKED :A two-way price quotation that indicates
the best price at which a security can be sold and
bought at a given point in time.
The bid price represents the maximum price that a
buyer or buyers are willing to pay for a security.
The ask price represents the minimum price that a seller
or sellers are willing to receive for the security.
The difference between the bid and asked prices, or the
spread, is a key indicator of the liquidity of the asset
- generally speaking, the smaller the spread, the
better the liquidity.
11

Bid / Ask Spread


It is common for any currency pair to be quoted
with both a bid and an ask price.
The former, which is always a lower price than
the ask, is the price at which a broker is ready
and willing to buy, which is the price at which
the trader/customer should sell. The ask price,
on the other hand, is the price at which the
broker is ready and willing to sell, meaning
the trader /customer should jump at that
price and buy.
12

Bid / Ask Spread

13

Bid / Ask Spread

14

CROSS RATE

15

Example 1

16

Example 2 :Cross Exchange Rate

17

18

CROSS RATES

19

20

Reading the FX Table


Direct quote of $ in Japan

Cross-Rates
Direct Quote of Yen in USA

RULES
Rule 1
A =

X C
B

Bid (A/B) = Bid (A/C) X Bid (C/B)


Ask (A/B) = Ask (A/C) X Ask (C/B)
Rule 2
Bid (A/B) =

Ask ( B/A)
22

RULES
Rule 1
=

X $

European
Quote

American
Quote

Bid ( /) =

Bid ( /$) X Bid ($/ )

Ask ( /) =

Ask ( /$) X Ask ($/ )

Rule 2
Bid ( /$) =

Ask ( $/ )
23

Rule 2
Bid ( /$) =

Ask ( $/ )
This is because when we want to transact in
dollars (say) we use $1= Rs 60/ 64 . It means
when we want to sell $ we would get Rs 60 and
when want to buy $ we need to give Rs 64

24

Now let us assume that we want to transact in rupees . In


that case we use 1= $ .0163/ .0156
It means when we want to sell we would get $ .0163
and when we want to buy we need to give $ .0156
Now is not selling dollar akin to buying rupees and
vice versa ? From the first quote we get dollar sale
rate as $1 = Rs 60 from the second quote we get
rupee buying rate as Rs 1 = .0156 but both the quotes
are one and the same mathematically . Hence we say,
Bid ( /$)= 1 / Ask ( $ / )
Ask (/$ ) = 1 / Bid ( $ / )
25

BID / ASK quotes


/$

$1

From
trader/customer
/investor point of view

$/

From
trader/customer
/investor point of view

BID ( bankers $ buy


rate

ASK ( bankers $
selling rate

66

67

$ selling rate

$ buying rate

buying rate

selling rate

BID ( Bankers Rs buy rate)

ASK ( Bankers Rs sell rate)

1/67= $ .01492

1/66 = $.01515

selling rate

buying rate

$ buying rate

$ selling rate

Indian
direct
quote or
European

American
quote

26

CROSS RATE : RUPEE / EURO /


BID ( bankers
buy rate

ASK ( bankers
selling rate

66

66.5

$ selling rate

$ buying rate

buying rate

selling rate

Indian direct
quote/
European
quote

$ 1.1

$ 1.12

American quote

From trader/customer
/investor point of view

selling rate

buying rate

$ buying rate

$ selling rate

66 X $1.1=
72.60

66.5X $1.12 =
74.48

/$

$1

From trader/customer
/investor point of view
$/

Indian direct
quote

27

CROSS RATE : RUPEE / POUND /


/$

$1

From trader/customer
/investor point of view
$ /

From trader/customer
/investor point of view

BID ( bankers
buy rate

ASK ( bankers
selling rate

66

67

Indian direct
quote/
European

$ selling rate

$ buying rate

buying rate

selling rate

$ 1.52

$ 1.53

selling rate

buying rate

$ buying rate

$ selling rate

66 X $1.52=
100.32

67X $1.53 = Indian direct


103.85
quote

American
quote

28

CROSS RATE : RUPEE / POUND /


/$

$1

From trader/customer
/investor point of view
$ /

From trader/customer
/investor point of view

BID ( bankers
buy rate

ASK ( bankers
selling rate

66.2550

66.2600

$ selling rate

$ buying rate

buying rate

selling rate

$ 1.5211

$ 1.5279

selling rate

buying rate

$ buying rate

$ selling rate

66.255 X
$1.5211=
100.78

66.26 X
$1.5278 =
101.23

Indian direct
quote/
European

American
quote

Indian direct
quote

29

CROSS RATE : RUPEE / YEN /


/$

$1

From trader/customer
/investor point of view
$/

From trader/customer
/investor point of view

BID ( bankers
buy rate

ASK ( bankers
selling rate

66

67

$ selling rate

$ buying rate

buying rate

selling rate

$ .0082

$ .0083

selling rate

buying rate

Indian direct
quote/
European

American
quote

$ buying rate

$ selling rate

66 X $.0082=
.5412

67X $ .0083 = Indian direct


.5561
quote

30

CROSS RATE : RUPEE / SINGAPORE DOLLAR

/$

$1

From trader/customer
/investor point of view
S$ /$

1$

BID ( bankers
buy rate

ASK ( bankers
selling rate

66

67

$ selling rate

$ buying rate

buying rate

selling rate

S$ 1.230

S$ 1.243

Indian direct
quote/
European

European
Quote

Bid $ /S$ = 1/ Ask S$/$ Ask $/S$ = 1/ Bid S$/$


$/S$
/ S$

1 S$

$ .804

$ .813

American
Quote

66 X $.804=
=53.064

67X $ .813=
54.47

Indian direct
quote

31

32

What are Pips in Forex


To illustrate, if the following pair were provided as such:
EUR / USD 1.2545/48 OR 1.2545/8
Then the bidding price is set for 1.2545
with the ask price set to 1.2548.
Pip :The minimum incremental move that of which is made
Possible by a currency pair is otherwise known as a pip, which
simply stands for price interest point.
For example, a move in the EUR / USD currency pair from 1.2545
to 1.2560 would be equivalent to 15 pips, whereas a move in the
USD / JPY currency pair from 112.05 to 113.05 would be
equivalent to 105 pips.

33

What are Pips in Forex

34

Exchange Rates
The exchange rate is the price that is
determined in the foreign exchange market.
Of course, there are many concepts of
exchange rate we can consider. These include:
Spot versus forward exchange rates versus
future exchange rates
Fixed versus flexible exchange rates
Nominal versus real exchange rate

35

Spot and Forward Exchange Rates


The exchange rate is simply the price of foreign
currency in terms of domestic currency.
The typical fashion is to quote the foreign
Currency price of the dollar; hence, the Rupee
has been trading at approximately Rs 66.10
to the dollar on November 12, 2015
The spot (or nominal) exchange rate refers to
The current price of foreign exchange. It is a
contract for immediate delivery, though that
might actually take a day or two.
36

A forward contract refers to a transaction for


delivery of foreign exchange at some
specified date in the future.
Suppose, for example, that a Indian company,
say Tata Motors, expects to receive $ 100,000
60 days from now. The value of these receipts
will vary with the actual value of the spot
exchange rate in the future.
The firm may wish, however, to hedge. It may
wish to reduce the risk that the rupee will
appreciate during these 60 days.
37

Consequently, it signs a contract to receive


$100,000 in 60 days at the current
exchange rate.

The company has locked in the current rate


and hedged the exchange rate risk.

38

The forward price of a currency need not be equal to


the spot price. If the market expects that the rupee
will depreciate over the next 6 months, the forward
price will be lower than the spot price.
The forward premium is a measure of the markets
expectation, and it can be expressed as:
fm = Fm-e
where m is the number of days
e
from today & Fm is forward
exchange rate. Clearly, if
fm > 0 it means that more dollars will be required to
purchase foreign exchange m days from now than
today
39

Forward contracts are usually offered by


commercial banks, and this helps to explain
the difference with futures contracts.
Banks offer their important customers forward
contracts as part of their business
relationship. It enables firms to engage in
international trade with limited exposure to
Foreign currency risk.

40

Forward premium
It's the price paid for hedging by buying
foreign currency in the forward market.
forward transactions take place at a premium
or discount to the spot rate.
The outright forward transactions are
over-the-counter transactions undertaken by
dealers. In India, it is generally the banks
that transact in forward markets.

41

The maturity date agreed upon by the parties


generally varies from months to a year or two.
But maturities beyond that tend to have wider
bid-ask spreads, in other words, tend to be
more expensive
The forward rate could be in premium or
discount, based on the interest rate differential
in case of currencies which are fully
convertible and in case of partially-convertible
currencies, they are determined purely on the
basis of demand and supply.
42

For example, in India, the USD/INR forward


rate for six months could be in premium or at
A discount over the spot rate, based on how
liquid the dollar is.

43

44

45

What determines forward premium?


Countries that have fully-convertible currencies, the
forward premium is deduced from their interest
rate differentials, respectively.
The premium/discount is measured in points, which
represent the interest rate differential of the countries
to which the currencies belong, for the period of
maturity.
These points are the quantum of foreign exchange that
would neutralise the interest rate differential

46

Forward exchange rates


According to the interest parity theory ,
forward rate are dependent on the prevailing
interest rate in the two currencies .
The forward rate can be calculated by the
following formula :
F = 1+ Rh
S
1+ Rf
Where F and S are future and spot currency
rates . Rh and Rf are Simple interest rate in the
home and foreign currency
47

If we consider continuously compounding


interest rate forward Rate can be computed
using the following formula
(rh-rf)*T

F= S * e
rh = continuously compounded interest
rates for the home currency

rf = continuously compounded interest


T

rates for the foreign currency


= Time to maturity
= 2.71828

48

Lets assume that one year rate interest rate


in US and India are say 3% and 8%
respectively and the spot rate of USD in
India is Rs 62

49

Suppose that the one year forward rate is less


than 65.18 say Rs 64 An arbitrageur can :
Borrow 1000 USD at 3% per annum for one
year and convert to Rs 62000/- and invest the
same at 8%
An amount of USD 1030.50 (1000 x 1.0305 )
has to be repaid after one year . Strategy : Buy
a forward contract for USD 1030.50 for
Rs 65952 ( Rs 64 * 1030.50)
Note : e = 1.0305
50

USD 1000 converted to Rs 62000 and


invested at 8% pa grows to Rs 67166.46
( 62000x 1.0833) of This Rs 65952 shall be
used to buy $ 1030.5 and repay the US loan
Note : e8 = 1.0833
The strategy therefore leaves a risk free
profit of Rs 1214.46 Suppose the rate was
greater than Rs 65.18 as given in the equation
above , the reverse strategy would have
worked.
51

Suppose , that the spot rate is Rs 60 per USD.


One year rate interest rate in US and India
are say 3% and 9% respectively
1.Compute the 2 year forward rate
2.If the future rate is say 66.50 .
3.Is there any opportunity of arbitrage

52

(rh-rf)*T

F= S * e
From the equation above the two year
forward rate should be
(.9-.3)*2
F = 60 *e
= 60 * 1.1275 = 67.75
Since future rate is not equal to 67.75
Arbitrage opportunity exists
Note : e12 = 1.1275
53

CA FINAL NOV 2009/ May 2010

54

55

Three year Expected Forward Rate : 1$USD

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

1$= Rs 68 to say & 70

Supplier

Rupee Dep

1 = Rs 100 to say Rs 90 Customer Rs Appre


63

64

CURRENCY DERIVATIVES

65

CURRENCY DERIVATIVES

66

CURRENCY DERIVATIVES

67

Lecture objectives

68

Forward Market

69

Forward Contracts

70

Forward Market

71

Forward Market
annualized forward premium/discount
= forward rate spot rate 360
spot rate

where n is the number of days to maturity

Example: Suppose spot rate = $1.401,


day forward rate = $1.398.

90-

$1.398 $1.401 x 360 = 0.86%


$1.398

90

So, forward discount = 0.86%


72

Forward Market
annualized forward premium/discount
= forward rate spot rate 360
spot rate

where n is the number of days to maturity

Example: Suppose $ spot rate = Rs 66.05 90day $ forward rate = Rs 66.95

Rs66.95 Rs 66.05 x 360 = + 5.45 %


Rs 66.05

90

So, forward premium = + 5.45%


73

FORWARD MARKET

74

Forward Contract - Example

75

76

77

78

Currency Futures Market

79

Currency Futures Market

80

Forward Markets

Futures Markets

Contract size

Customized

Standardized.

Trading

Informal Over the


Counter

Traded on Exchange

Participants

Banks, brokers, MNCs.


Public speculation not
encouraged

Banks, brokers, MNCs.


Qualified Public
speculation
encouraged

Settlement

Single- Pre-specified in Daily settlement & Final


the contract
settlement

Risk

Counter party risk is


present

Exchange provides the


guarantee of
settlement & hence no
counter party risk

Marketplace

Worldwide telephone
network.

Central exchange floor


with global
communications
81

Currency Futures Market

82

Currency Futures Market

83

Currency Futures Market

84

Currency Futures Market

85

Currency Futures Market

86

Currency Futures Market

87

FUTURE EXAMPLES

88

HEDGING EXPORTER : SHORT


A Software Exporter would receive a payment
of USD 10,00,000 after 3 months . Suppose the
spot rate and the future 3 month rate is Rs 62 .
He expects Dollar to depreciate due to huge
increase in exports and FII inflow in India .
He would lose on account of Dollar
depreciation. He plans to hedge the
foreign currency risk
by selling dollars @ 62 in the Futures market
89

Thus Exporter is exposed to exchange rate risk , which he can


Hedge by taking a short position in the future market.
By taking short position in 1000 future contracts ( USD INR
future contract size is of 1000 USD) he can lock in the exchange
rate after 3 months at INR Rs 62/- ( Assuming 3 months future
price is 62).
Whatever may be the exchange rate after 3 months
exporter will be getting Rs 6,20,00,000
Any loss in the Spot market will get off set from the gain in the
In the future market and vice versa

90

HEDGING- SHORT
If Dollar appreciates / strengthens in
exchange rate becomes $ 1= INR 63

If the dollar depreciates/ weakens


and the exchange rate becomes$1=
INR 61

Spot Market : Exporter will receive INR


6,30,00,000 by selling I million USD in the
spot market

Spot Market : Exporter will receive


INR 6,10,00,000 by selling I million
USD in the spot market

Future Market : Exporter will lose INR


( 62-63) *1000= INR 1000 per contract .
The total loss in 1000 contracts will be
INR 10,00,000

Future Market : Exporter will gain INR


( 62-61) *1000= INR 1000 per
contract . The total gain in 1000
contract s will be INR 10,00,000

Note Contract Size = 1000 USD


Net Receipt = Rs 63 million 1 million=
Rs 62million

Net Receipt = Rs 61 million +1 million=


Rs 62 million

91

HEDGING IMPORTER - LONG


An Importer has ordered certain equipment
from US and has to make payment after
3 months .Suppose the spot rate and future
3 month rate is Rs 62 .
He expects Dollar to appreciate due to
announcement of QE tapering by Federal Bank
of America and outflow of FII .
He would lose on account of Dollar
appreciation. He plans to hedge the foreign
currency risk by buying dollars @62
In the Futures market
92

Thus Importer is exposed to exchange rate risk , which he can


hedge by taking an by taking a long position in the future market.
By taking long position in 1000 future contracts ( USD INR
future contract size is Of 1000 USD) he can lock in the exchange
rate after 3 months at INR Rs 62/- ( Assuming 3 months future
price is 62).
Whatever may be the exchange rate after 3 months
Importer will be paying 6,20,00,000
Any loss in the Spot market will get off set from the gain in the
In the future market and vice versa

93

HEDGING- LONG
If Dollar appreciates / strengthens and If the Dollar weakens/ depreciates and
the exchange rate becomes 1$= INR
the exchange rate becomes 1$=INR 60
63
Spot Market : Importer has to pay INR
Spot Market : importer will pay INR
6,30,00,000 by buying I million USD in the 6,00,00,000 by buying I million USD in
spot market
the spot market
Future Market : Importer will gain INR
( 63-62) *1000= INR 1000 per contract .
The total gain in 1000 contract s will
be INR 10,00,000

Future Market : Importer will lose INR


( 60-62) *1000= INR 2000 per contract .
The total loss in 1000 contract s will
be INR 20,00,000

Net payments = Rs 63 million -1 million= Net payments = Rs 60 million +2 million=


Rs 62 million
Rs 62 million

94

Currency Option Market

95

Currency Options Market

96

Currency Call Options

97

EXAMPLE : CALL OPTION

98

Market rate

Exercise rate
call @ 63.5

Premium paid

Gain / loss

62.50

.50

-.50

63.00

.50

-.50

63.50

.50

-.50

64.00

.5

.50

64.50

.50

.50

65.00

1.5

.50

1.0

65.50

.50

1.50

When the spot exchange rate rises above the strike price , there are gains when
it falls below the strike price there losses which are maximum to the extent of
premium

99

Currency Call Options

100

Currency Call Options

101

Currency Call Options

102

Currency Call Options

103

Currency Put Options

104

CURRENCY OPTION STRATEGY FOR EXPORT TRANSACTION

105

Market rate

Exercise rate
Put @ 63.5

Premium paid

Gain / loss

61.50

2.00

.50

1.50

62.00

1.50

.50

1.00

62.50

1.00

.50

.50

63.50

.50

-.50

64.00

.50

-.50

64.50

.50

-.50

When the spot exchange rate fall below the strike price , there are gains when it
rises above the strike price there losses which are maximum to the extent of
premium paid

106

Currency Put Options

107

Currency Put Options

108

A CALL OPTION
A trader buys a call option on US dollar with a strike price of Rs.49.50
and pays a premium of Rs.1.50. The current spot rate, St, is Rs.48.50.
His gain/loss at time T when the option expires depends upon the value
of the spot rate, ST, at that time
USD/INR ST AT EXPIRY
48.2500
48.5000
48.7500
49.0000
49.2500
49.5000
49.7500
50.0000
51.0000
52.0000
54.5000
56.0000

Option Buyers Gain(+)/Loss(-)


-Rs.1.50
-Rs.1.50
-Rs.1.50
-Rs.1.50
-Rs.1.50
-Rs.1.50
-Rs.1.25
-Rs.1.00
+Rs.0.00
+Rs.1.00
+Rs.3.50
+Rs.5.00

109

A PUT OPTION
A trader buys a put option on pound sterling at a strike price of
$1.8500, for a premium of $0.07 per sterling. The spot rate at the
time is $1.9465. At expiry, his gains/losses are as follows
GBP/USD ST AT EXPIRY

1.7000

1.7300

1.7500

1.7600

1.7800

1.7900

1.8300

1.8500

1.8700

1.9000

1.9500

Option Buyers Gain(+)/Loss(-)


+$0.0800
+$0.0500
+$0.0300
+$0.0200
$0.0000
-$0.0100
-$0.0500
-$0.0700
-$0.0700
-$0.0700
-$0.0700
110

Elementary Option Strategies

111

112

THANK YOU

113

Thank you

114

115

Cross-Exchange Rate Formulae: Method 1

How many euro's for one pound?


Method 1

S $/ American Terms
S( /) =
S($/ ) American Terms
Notes:
Both are in American terms.
The first currency () goes into the denominator (bottom)
The second currency () goes into the numerator (top)
NOTE: By first currency, I mean the first currency in the spot formula, i.e., X, in S(X/Y).

Method 1: Example
Find S(/)How many yen for a euro?
If S($/) = 1.4497 and S($/) =0.009228
S $/ American Terms
1.4497
S(/ ) =

157.0980
S($/) American Terms 0.009228

Notes:
Both are in American terms.
The first currency () goes into the denominator (bottom)
The second currency () goes into the numerator (top)

Cross-Exchange Rate Formulae : Method 2


How many euro's for one pound?
Method 2

S(/) = S $/ S(/$) American Terms European Term s


$

= S S = S
Notes:

$

= S(/)

One in American terms; one in European terms


The first currency () is in European terms.
The second currency () is in American terms.
The order of multiplication does not matter.
NOTE: By first currency, I mean the first currency in the spot formula, i.e., X, in S(X/Y).
118 (of 24)

Cross-Exchange Rate Formulae : Method 2


Find S(/)How many yen for a euro?
if S($/) = 1.4497 and S($/) =0.009228

S(/) = S $/ S(/$) = 1.4497 108.3650 = 157.0967


Notes:

American Terms European Terms

The first currency is in European terms.


The second currency is in American terms.
The order of multiplication does not matter.
NOTE: When dealing in yen there can be rounding error.
119 (of 24)

Bid-Ask
Cross-Exchange Rates
Using Method 2
Multiply two bids to get a bid.
Multiply two asks to get an ask.

Example:
Sb (/) = Sb $/ Sb (/$)

American Terms European Terms

Sb (/) = 1.4497 108.3650 = 157.0967

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