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Climate Change Mitigation:

Issues and Options for South Asia

Building Capacity to Respond to Climate Change in South Asia

29-30 June, 2010
Kathmandu, Nepal

Jiwan Acharya
Climate Change Specialist
Sustainable Infrastructure Division
Regional & Sustainable Development Department
 Outline of the presentation

 Climate change mitigation – what is it? Why is it

important?

 Sources of GHG emissions – what are the sectors

responsible? What are the opportunities?

 ADB’s actions on climate change mitigation

 Mitigation – what is it?

 Mitigation – one of the two central approaches in climate

change process (other one being adaptation)
 Mitigation involves human interventions to reduce GHG
emissions:
 By sources (e.g. technological change and fuel substitution)
 Or enhance GHG removal from atmosphere by sinks (e.g.
forests, vegetation to absorb CO2)
 Mitigation is basically to reduce resource inputs and emissions
per unit of output.
 It means implementing policies to reduce GHG emissions and
enhance sinks.
 Why is mitigation important?

 Under current practice, global GHG emissions will

most likely increase by 25 – 90% between 2000 and
2030 (increased 70% between 1970 and 2004).

 Mitigation efforts over the next two decades will have

larger impacts on opportunities to achieve lower
stabilization levels (i.e. concentration of GHGs in
atmosphere, ppm).
 Projected Impacts of Climate Change
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C 6°C
Food Falling crop yields

Possible rising yields in some Falling yields in many

high latitude regions developed regions

Water
Decreases in water Sea level rise threatens
Glaciers disappear availability major coastal cities

Ecosystems
Damage to Rising number of species face extinction
Coral Reefs
Extreme
Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Risk of
Irreversible Increasing risk of abrupt, large-scale shifts climatic
Changes shifts

430ppm CO2e (Today)

280ppm CO2e 550ppm CO2e
(Pre-Industrial)
650ppm CO2e
Source: ADB, the Stern Review
 Which are the main greenhouse gases?

GHG Source Share in global

emissions
(in 2004)
Carbon dioxide (CO2) the consumption of energy
from burning fossil fuels 76.7%
deforestation
Methane (CH4) agricultural activities
energy production 14.3%
waste
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) mainly from agricultural 7.9%
activities
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) used as replacements for
ozone-depleting substances
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
1.1%
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) used in some industrial
processes and in electric
equipment
 Who are the top 10 GHG emitters?

Rank Country GHG emissions Tons of per

Billion tons/yr capita
emission
I PRC 6.8 5.5
II USA 6.4 21.0
III European Union 5.03 10.2
IV Russia 1.7 11.9
V India 1.4 1.2
VI Japan 1.4 11.0
VII Canada 0.6 19.8
VIII South Korea 0.6 13.7
IX Brazil 0.4 2.2
X Indonesia 1
0.3 1.6
Source: Reuters News, 26 Nov 2009
1
Taking Co2 from deforestation into account, Indonesia is the 3 rd largest emitter
 Per Capita Emissions in South Asia

Country tCO2/Capita

Bangladesh 0.25

Bhutan NA

India 1.18

Maldives NA

Nepal 0.11

Pakistan 0.85

Sri Lanka 0.64

Source: IEA, 2009

 Comparing Per capita CO2 Emissions
25

United States

20

Average
Annual 15
Canada
CO2
Emission European Union Japan
per 10
Person
(tons)

5 India
China

0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Source: International Energy Agency
 Which are the process drivers?
GHG Emissions by Sector
Industry
Residential 19%
and Agriculture
Commercial
14%
Buildings Non-
8% Energy-
Energy-
Related Related

Transport Forestry
13%
17%

3% Waste and
waste water
Energy
Supply 26%

Total Global GHG Emissions: 49 Giga tons CO2e, 2004

Source: IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, 4 th Assessment Synthesis Report 2007
 Developing Asia’s Share in Global CO2
Emissions from Energy Consumption

Developing Asia
Rest of Rest of
the 69% 31% 45% 55% the
World World

2007 2030
Actual (World) Projection (World)
Total = 28,826 Mil tons CO2 Total = 40,226 Mil tons CO2

Source: ADB, data from IEA World Energy Outlook 2009

 RECCSA Study – Initial Key Findings (1)

 Total primary energy supply (TPES) would increase by 1.5 fold to 3.8 fold across
the four countries during 2005-2030 in the base case. Fossil fuel use would
increase much faster than TPES during the period (i.e., by 2.3 fold to 8 fold).
 The share of fossil fuels in TPES would increase in all countries during the study
period in the base case. In 2005 it ranged from 11% to 62%; by 2030 it would
be in the range of 27% to 83%.
 Electricity generation would increase by 1.7 fold to 5.9 fold in the countries
during the period in the base case, with significant increase in the fossil fuel
share in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
 Under 450 ppmv scenario, there would be a significant switch from the use of
coal to renewable energy (biomass, wind) and MSW in Sri Lanka and from coal
to renewable energy and natural gas in Bangladesh.
 Cumulative GHG emission abatement potential during 2010-2030 under the 450
ppmv scenario varies widely (0.04% in Bhutan; 2.6% in Nepal, 9.4%
Bangladesh and 39% in Sri Lanka).
 RECCSA Study – Initial Key Findings (2)

 Most of GHG abatement in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and Bhutan during
2010-2030 under 450 ppmv would come from the power sector; while it
would be the transport sector in the case of Nepal.
 A number of energy efficient technologies both in the demand and energy
supply side would be cost effective under 450 ppmv, with their use varying
across the countries.
 In 2020, the total energy related GHG abatement potential of the 4
countries at carbon price of about US$ 25 per ton CO2e would be about
32.3 million ton CO2e, with the shares of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka being
74.2% and 20.6% respectively.
 There exist several no-regret options (cost wise) in both energy efficient
and renewable energy technology categories with a significant GHG
abatement potential in the countries.
 Financing Climate Change Mitigation

 Financing need for mitigation is huge:

 UNFCCC estimates more than $200 billion additional
investment required to reduce CO2eq by 25% below 2000 in
2030 (i.e. still less than 3% of global GDP in 2030)
 Developed countries leadership
 Role of private sector
 Market mechanisms such as CDM
 Stern Review:
 The cost of inaction could be 5 – 20% of loss in global GDP
whereas cost of action of reducing GHG emissions can be
limited to 1% of GDP/year
 UNFCCC and Mitigation

 Mitigation is one key item in UNFCCC and use of market

mechanisms such as CDM to make it cost effective in the Kyoto
Protocol
 Industrialized countries have committed to reduce only
average of 5.2% of 1990 emissions in 2008 – 2012  very
insignificant, yet created huge global carbon market
 Bali Road Map (COP13, Dec 2007)
 Mitigation is one of the four elements
 Developed countries to reduce 10-40% by 2020 and 40-90%
by 2050 below 1990 levels for low to medium stabilization
levels (450 – 550 ppm)
 Developing countries to take ‘nationally appropriate
mitigation actions” – Nationally Appropriate Mitigation
Actions - NAMAs.
 Copenhagen COP 15 and Mitigation

 No formal consensus on targets for GHG reduction

 A political agreement on 2 degree target
 New mechanism for REDD
 Voluntary financial pledges
 Partial CDM reform
 Major developing country emitters announce targets
 Ambitious targets for financing:
 $30 billion by 2012
 $100 billion per year by 2020
 Targets announced by Annex I countries

Country Target Base year

Australia -5% to -15%, or 2000
-25%
Canada -20% 2006
EU -20% to -30% 1990
Japan -25% 1990
Kazakhstan -15% 1992
New Zealand -10% to -20% 1990
Norway -30% to -40% 1990
Russia -15% to -25% 1990
Switzerland -20% to -30% 1990
US -14% to -17% 2005
Note: This is not an exhaustive list. All Annex I countries, except Turkey, have announced their targets
but some targets are yet to be fully endorsed by their legislations.
 Pledges made by Non-Annex I countries

Country Target
China, People's To reduce carbon intensity by 40% to 45% by
Republic of 2020 on 2005 level
India To reduce carbon intensity by 20% to 25% by
2020 on 2005 level
Indonesia To reduce emissions by 26% compared to BAU by
2020 unilaterally, 41% with international support

Maldives To become carbon neutral by 2019

Philippines To reduce emissions by 5% from 1990 levels
(target year not set)
Korea, Republic of To reduce emissions 4% below 2005 level by
2020, or 30% below BAU (unilaterally)
Singapore To reduce emissions 16% from BAU level by 2020

Note: This is not an exhaustive list

ADB’s Strategy 2020 and Climate Change

ADB’s Long-term Strategic Framework (2008-

2020)
 Inclusive Economic Growth
 Regional Integration
 Environmentally sustainable growth
 Environment including climate change: one of
the five core areas of operations
 Aims to scale up support for projects that
address climate change
 Core Priorities and Modalities

 Core Priorities
 Scaling-up Clean Energy
 Encouraging Climate-friendly Urban and Transport
Development
 Managing Land Use and Forests for Carbon Sequestration
 Promoting Climate-resilient Development
 Policy and Institutional Support
 Modalities
 Financing: Innovative Financing and Financing for
Innovation
 Knowledge Generation
 Partnerships
 ADB Climate Change Mitigation Projects

 Renewable energy projects in Bhutan, Nepal, India,

Pakistan
 Solid Waste Management in Bangladesh, India,
Pakistan
 Energy Efficiency (CFL promotion) in Pakistan
 Sustainable transport projects in India, Nepal
 Summary

 Mitigation, a central approach, refers to reduction of GHG by

sources or sinks
 CO2 is the largest contributing GHG. Largest growth in GHG
emissions is from energy supply and road transport
 Deforestation, with about 20% of global emissions, is a
significant contributor to climate change
 Long term goal is to stabilize about 450 ppm, resulting 2 – 2.4
degree C rise
 There is significant potential for mitigation in all sectors in South
Asia
 Carbon market with REDD has great potential for cost effective
mitigation
 THANK YOU!

Jiwan Acharya
Sustainable Infrastructure Division
Regional & Sustainable Development Department
Tel: (+632) 632-6207
E-mail: jacharya@adb.org