Addressing Climate

Change in South
Asia The views expressed in this presentation are the
views of the author(s) and do not necessarily
reflect the views or policies of the Asian
Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of
Directors or the governments they represent.
ADB does not guarantee the source, originality,
accuracy, completeness or reliability of any
statement, information, data, finding,
interpretation, advice, opinion, or view presented,
nor does it make any representation concerning
the same.

Robert J. Dobias
Senior Adviser, Climate Change
Asian Development Bank
29 June 2010
Contents
 Climate challenge in
South Asia
Dealing with uncertainty
 Populations and sectors
at risk
 National responses and
ADB assistance
 SAARC sub-regional
responses
 Way forward
 Climate Challenge in South
Asia
Glacial Melt
Erosion
• Glacier mass losses and
• India: 26% of coastline prone,
snow cover reduction
estimated at 450 ha land lost per
• Creation/ continuing growth
year
of glacial lakes
• Sri Lanka: 45-55% of coastline
• GLOFs
eroding by 0.30-0.35 m per year
Sea Level Rise Salt Water
Flooding
• Results in more tidal Intrusion
• Bangladesh,
inundations • Bangladesh: >100
India, Nepal, Sri
• By 2050: 45cm in
Lanka historically m ha of arable land
Bangladesh affecting affected
prone to flooding
10-15% of land and 35 • Large-scale
• Worsening floods
m people; 15-38 cm in emigration from
in recent years
India coastal cities feared
• Stormier future
• Threatens Sri Lanka in India
to aggravate
coastal areas and the
likelihood of floods • All of Maldives
all the islands of
Maldives (<1masl) affected by salt water
 Populations and Sectors
At Risk
Population Groups
 Agriculture-dependent rural
poor
 Low-elevation coastal
communities
Sectors
 Water
 Agriculture
 Energy
 Biodiversity
 Human
health
Key Impacts on the Water
Sector

 Changes in the
water cycle

 Floods

 Salt intrusion in
coastal aquifers

 Droughts
 Key Impacts on
Agriculture
 Declining yields of major
crops
 Decreasing viability of
farming in marginal areas
(arid, semi-arid and coastal
areas)
 Crop destruction by
extreme weather events
Key Impacts on the Energy
Sector

 Accelerating demand

 Further stresses on existing

networks

 Reduced hydropower potential

Key Impacts on
Biodiversity

 Further damage to
ecosystems
 Vegetation shifts,
loss of habitats,
dependent species and
important ecological
goods and services
 Biodiversity loss in
the Himalayas and
glacier-fed ecosystems
 Biodiversity threats
from sea-level rise
 Human Health and Social
Sector
 Greater incidence of climate-
sensitive diseases
 Direct health risks from extreme
events
 Risks from climate-induced
environmental and economic changes

 Increased poverty and

deprivation
 Greater need for social
protection by vulnerable
groups
 Climate Change and
Natural Disasters

 Higher probability
of extreme events
and slow onset
High: 10
High: 25
Low: 0
disasters Low: 1

Flood frequency
 Cost of damages Slides frequency
index will rise index

 Damages at
High: 25

household level could

Low: 0

be devastating for the

poor
High: 7
High: 8
Low: 1
Low: 1

Drought frequency Cyclone frequency

index index
Climate Change and Migration
 Poverty-induced
migration will increase
 Greater rural-urban
migration will intensify
the pressures on urban
environments and
services delivery
 Urban poverty will
rise
Conceptualisation of the cascade of uncertainty

Future
society

GHG
emissions

Climate
model

Regional
scenario

Impact
model

Local
impacts

Adaptation
responses

The envelope of uncertainty

 Observed
Observed
climate
non-climatic Vulnerab
variability
pressures ility
and change
(now)
Adaptati
on
options
Social acceptability Economic appraisal
A, B, C....
Preferred
Technical feasibility Regulatory context
measure
s

ing
Monitor
B, H, S,
Narratives of W Climate
non-climatic Vulnerab change
pressures ility narratives
(future)

Adaptation principles Robust Sensitivity analysis

Scenario-
measure
s
neutral
B, W
Adaptati approach to
practical
Performance appraisal on New evidence
pathway
s
W then B adaptation
Adaptation pathways of TE2100

Source: Environment Agency

 National Responses:
Bangladesh
 NAPA (2005)
 Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (2008)
 Multi-donor trust fund

ADB-assisted Projects
 Cluster Capacity Development TA
 Sustainable Power Sector
Development
 Urban Governance and Infrastructure
Improvement II
 Strengthening the Resilience of the
Water Sector in Khulna to Climate
Change

 National Responses:
Bhutan

 NAPA (2006)
 National Environment Commission

ADB-assisted Projects
 Capacity Development TA
for CDM and IWRM

 Green Power Development

Project
 National Responses: India
ADB-assisted Projects:
 Assam Power Sector
Investment
 “Energy Smart” Madhya
Pradesh
 Gujarat Paguthan Wind
Energy
 Integrated RE Development
 EE Enhancement in Power
Generation Sector
 Tata Wind Energy
 Central Uttar Pradesh Gas
Ltd
 Kerala Sustainable Urban
Development
 Targets 20-25%
reduction in
emission intensity
by 2020 as against
2005
 National Action Plan
on Climate Change
(2008)
 Eight “missions” to
implement action
plan
 Rajashtan Urban
Infrastructure
Development
 Glacial Melt and
Downstream Impacts on
Indus-dependent Water
Resources and Energy
National Responses: Maldives
 Targets 100% emissions reduction
by 2020 as against 2009 levels
 NAPA (2006)
 Capacity Development TA (UNDP)
National Responses: Nepal
 Strengthening
Capacity for Managing  NAPA (in process)
Climate Change and the  Climate Change Committee
Environment

 Energy Access and

Energy Efficiency
Improvement Project
National Responses: Sri Lanka
ADB-assisted Projects:  Climate Change
Secretariat
 Forest Resources
 National Sustainable
Management Sector Project Development Strategy
(under preparation)
 Local Government
Infrastructure Improvement
Project
Sub-regional Responses:
SAARC
 Delhi Declaration (2007)
 Dhaka Declaration and Climate
Change Action Plan (2008)
 Kathmandu Agreed Vision for
South Asia on Climate Change
(2009)
 SAWCCA
 Joint statement for COP 15
 SAARC Silver Jubilee Summit
(2010)
 Way Forward
 Continue mitigation assistance
 Increase adaptation
assistance, focusing on water and
agriculture
 Assist in climate
mainstreaming, risk screening
and climate proofing of DMC
development projects

Thank you!