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Methods of Design Flood

Computation
Subtitle
Methods of Design Flood Computation
Hydro-Meteorological Approach:
Probable Maximum Flood (PMF)
Standard Project Flood (SPF)

Statistical Approach:
Flood of a Specific Return Period
Hydro-Meteorological Approach:
It uses hydrograph theoryin the flood prediction process to provide an estimate of
stream flow that results from a given amount precipitation.

PMF calculation:
The worst possible maximum storm is estimated

SPF calculation:
The worst observed rainfall pattern of the catchment is used
Data needed for PMF/SMF studies:
1. Watershed data 2. Channel data
Total watershed area, snowbound area, Channel and valley cross sections at
minimum and maximum different places under consideration to fix
Elevations above the mean sea level and the gauge discharge rating curves.
length of river up to the project site
Mannings n or the data required to
Lag time, travel times of reaches, and estimate channel roughness coefficient
time of concentration
Contributing areas, mean overland flow
distances and slopes
Design storm water losses, evaporation,
infiltration, depression and interception
losses, infiltration capacities.
Land use practices, soil types, surface
and subsurface divides
Data needed for PMF/SMF studies:
3. Runoff data 4. Storm data
Base flow estimates during design Daily rainfall records of all rain gauge
floods. stations in and around the region under
study
Available historical data on floods along
with the precipitation data including Rainfall data of self-recording rain
that of self-recording rain gauges, if gauges
available
Data of the storm dew point and
maximum dew point temperatures
Statistical Approach
Flood Frequency Analysis
It studies or interpret past record of events to predict the future probabilities of
occurrence and estimate the magnitude of an event corresponding to a specific return
period
Data needed for flood frequency analysis such as:
Long term and short term rainfall
Runoff values
Annual flood peaks
Catchment characteristics
Calculation for Flood Frequency
Add a Slide Title - 2
Basic to all frequency analyses, is the concept that there is a collection of data, called
the population. For flood frequency studies, this population are taken as the annual
maximum flood occurring at a location on a river (called the site).
Steps in flood frequency analysis
Step 1: Flood frequency analysis starts by checking the
consistency of the data and finding the presence of features
such as trend, jump, etc.
Trend - is the gradual shift in the sample data, either in the increasing or
decreasing directions caused by human interference, like afforestation or
deforestation of the watershed
Jump - means that one or a few of the data have exceptional values high or low,
due to certain factors, like forest fire, earthquake, landslide, etc , which may change
the rivers flow characteristics temporarily
Step 2: Apply a convenient probability distribution curve to fit
the data set
Commonly used formulas for flood frequency analysis:
Normal
Log Normal
Pearson Type III
Gumbel
Which of one of this is used if it best fit to the data given, it is
adopted for calculation of flood likely to occur corresponding to
specific return period
Plotting Position
If probability is to be assigned to a data point itself, then the plotting position
method is used. The application of the method of plotting may be explained better
with an example.
Example: Assume that the yearly peak flood flows of a hypothetical river measured at
a particular location over the years 1981 to 2000 is given as in the following table.
The data is to used to calculate the flood peak flow that is likely to occur once every 10
years, and once every 50 years.
Data:

Solution:
1.Rearrange first the peak flood values in decreasing order.
2.Use Weibull Formula shown in the next slide:

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