Two additions to the programme

Today (late afternoon)

Brainstorming Session on how to
develop the TED programme over next
three years
Saturday (afternoon)
Every student to present 1-2 slides on
what how their own research might
integrate with TED objectives
1
Risk Communication
and Risk Management

Simon French
Manchester Business School
simon.french@mbs.ac.uk
A personal journey …
Until 1990:
 theoretical Bayesian statistical, risk and decision analyst
 some business experience (£, market share)
International Chernobyl Project
 Study of factors driving decision making
 not radiological
 but stress and public acceptability

1996: morbidity in excess of 70% found in some

affected regions of Byelorus
Poor information management and communication
increased stress … and stress related illness.

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To communicate risks…

we need to understand how other

people understand risks
and
how we understand them ourselves

4
Framing Issues

Imagine that you are a public health official and

that an influenza epidemic is expected. Without
any action it is expected to lead to 600 deaths.
However, there are two vaccination programmes
that you may implement:
Programme A would use an established
vaccine which would save 200 of the
population.
Programme B would use a new vaccine which
might be effective. There is a 1/3rd chance of
saving 600 and 2/3rds chance of saving none.

5
Framing Issues

Imagine that you are a public health official and

that an influenza epidemic is expected. Without
any action it is expected to lead to 600 deaths.
However, there are two vaccination programmes
that you may implement:
Programme A would use an established
vaccine which would lead to 400 of the
population dying.
Programme B would use a new vaccine which
might be effective. There is a 1/3rd chance of
no deaths and 2/3rds chance of 600 deaths.

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Framing

Negative framing  risk proneness

Positive framing  risk aversion

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Misperception of Statistical Risk
Information
It is estimated that about 3% of school aged children are physically
abused by their parents (American Urban Figures). It is possible to
screen children for evidence of abuse ( scars, fractures etc.) with
the intention of follow-up by contact with parents. While allowing
abuse to the child to continue causes great damage, falsely
suspecting parents is also undesirable. Health officials wish to be
very confident of their suspicions before approaching parents. The
officials believe that the screening examination is very reliable.
They claim that 95% of abused children will be detected, whereas
only 10% of non-abused children will be falsely identified by the
test. Given that child A has been positively identified by the test,
what is the real likelihood that the child is being abused ?

Give a value between 0 and 100%

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Availability
Who is more likely to get mugged, you or
a pensioner living in an inner City area?

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Availability
An event seems more likely if you can
remember ones like it; so memorable
events seem more likely

Plausible/ Recent Dramatic

Imaginable
But also
Who is more likely to get mugged, you or
a pensioner living in an inner City area?

Define the event

 Need to be clear on what we mean.

11
Plausibility bias
100 people attend a workshop in Naples.
Case 1
As they leave for the outing, one of them
steps into the road and is run over by a taxi.
He dies in hospital from head injuries

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Plausibility bias
100 people attend a workshop in Naples.
Case 1
As they leave for the outing, one of them
steps into the road and is run over by a taxi.
He dies in hospital from head injuries
Case 2
During the conference one of them dies

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Plausibility bias
100 people attend a workshop in Naples.
Case 1
As they leave for the outing, one of them
steps into the road and is run over by a taxi.
He dies in hospital from head injuries
Case 2
During the conference one of them dies
Is Case 1 or Case 2 the more likely?

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Plausibility bias
if an event is plausible then it is
perceived as probable
Near earth objects … meteorites
 thanks to Hollywood – plausible but
unlikely events

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Where I am working now

Individuals
Representatives Individuals
participate,
elected to take participate
interact; but
decisions and vote
authorities or
(Parliamentary in all decisions
parliament
Democracy) (Athenian Ideal)
decide

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The TED Vision

TED

Individuals
Representatives Individuals
participate,
elected to take participate
interact; but
decisions and vote
authorities or
(Parliamentary in all decisions
parliament
Democracy) (Athenian Ideal)
decide

17
Players
Science Values
Experts Stakeholders

Forecasts of Accountabilities
what might happen and responsibilities
Decision Makers

Process
expertise
Analysts

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Science and Values
Science – what might happen
 seldom a single science view
 subjective, controversy, debate
 uncertainty
Values – how much it matters if it does
 subjective
 often relate to intangibles

19
Communication with stakeholders
Science Values
Experts Stakeholders

Forecasts of Accountabilities
what might happen and responsibilities
Decision Makers

Process
expertise
Analysts

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Communication with stakeholders

Science Values
Experts Stakeholders
Forecasts of Accountabilitie
what might s
happen and
responsibilities
Decision Makers

Process
expertise

Analysts
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Communication with stakeholders
Values
Alternative views Further stakeholders:
of Science families, employees,
Experts etc.

Forecasts of Accountabilitie
Values s
what might
Stakeholders: and
Science happen
responsibilities
decision makers on
Experts
their choices
Forecasts of Accountabilitie
what might s
happen and
responsibilities
Decision Makers

Process
expertise

Analysts
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Communication with stakeholders
Values
Alternative views Further stakeholders:
of Science families, employees,
Experts etc.

Values
Stakeholders:
Science
decision makers on
Experts
their choices

Decision Makers

Analysts
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Interactions with stakeholders
Many interacting micro
systems of decision making
guided by experts and
impacting on many
stakeholders

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Cultural Theory
Individualist/Entrepreneurs: risks present opportunity, save
those that threaten freedom of choice and action within free
markets.
Hierarchists: fear threats to social order and believe
technological and environmental risks can be managed
within set limits.
Fatalists: do not knowingly accept risks but accept what is in
store for them.
Egalitarians: fear risks to the environment, the collective good
and future generations.
 words such as risk, impact, score, … are not neutral

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Two Languages of Risk
‘Expert’ Assessment ‘Public’
Assessment
Scientific Intuitive
Probabilistic Yes/No
Acceptable Risk Safety
Changing Knowledge ‘Is it, or isn’t it?’
Comparative Risk Discrete Events
Population Averages Personal Impacts
‘A Death is a Death’ ‘How We Die Matters’

Two Languages of Risk Communication (Powell & Leiss, 1997: 27)

26
Culture of the Scientific Method
Science is about not committing to a
hypothesis before there is sufficient evidence.
So hypothesis testing is key to Science
H0 - Null hypothesis
H1 - Alternative hypothesis
Even Bayesian statistical approaches encode
the same Scientific Method, albeit through the
spread of different distributions.

27
Risk management …
… requires that the decision makers
(society) commit to a course of action
before there is sufficient evidence...
…often hardly any evidence.

Politicians – societal risk managers! –

are just learning that:
no evidence of a risk
is not
evidence of no risk
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Values (Fright Factors)
Risks are generally more worrying (and
hence less acceptable) if they are:
• involuntary • long delayed
• inequitable • inter-generational/
• unavoidable affect children
• unfamiliar • dreaded
• unnatural • focused on identified
• poorly individuals
understood • compromised by
contradictory ‘science’

29
Menegitis Scenario
Over the past year the incidence of meningitis in small
children has been on the increase. It has become
apparent over the past months that the cause of this
increase is that the bacteria which cause the disease,
always present in the throats of much of the
population, have crossed over into the dog population.
Puppies and dogs licking children are transmitting the
disease. The Ministry of Health in your country are
debating what measures to take to deal with the issue.
What are the Fright Factors involved in this case
This is a hypothetical example!!!

30
‘Media Triggers’
Questions of Blame
Alleged Secrets/Cover Ups
Human Interest (e.g. Heroes, Villains &
Victims)
Links with Existing Issues/Personalities
Conflict
Signal Value
Mass Exposure
Strong Visual Impact
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Menegitis Scenario
Over the past year the incidence of meningitis in small
children has been on the increase. It has become
apparent over the past months that the cause of this
increase is that the bacteria which cause the disease,
always present in the throats of much of the
population, have crossed over into the dog population.
Puppies and dogs licking children are transmitting the
disease. The Ministry of Health in your country are
debating what measures to take to deal with the issue.
What are the Media Triggers involved in this case
This is a hypothetical example!!!

32
Fischhoff’s stages
1. All we have to do is get 5. All we have to do is
the numbers right show them it’s a good
2. All we have to do is tell deal for them
them the numbers
6. All we have to do is
3. All we have to do is treat them nice
explain what we mean
by the numbers 7. All we have to do is
4. All we have to do is make them partners
show them that they’ve 8. All of these
accepted similar risks in
the past

33
Fischhoff’s stages
1. All we have to do is get 5. All we have to do is
the numbers right show them it’s a good
2. All we have to do is tell deal for them
c e
them the numbers
es
6. All we have to do is
en
3. All we have to do is
i al u
treat them nice
Sc
explain what we mean
by the numbers V
7. All we have to do is
4. All we have to do is make them partners
show them that they’ve 8. All of these
accepted similar risks in
the past

34
The route to e-democracy

35
In the past:
to manage a societal risk …
… draw together:
 scientific assessments of the specific risks
 assessments of the broader risks

 evaluations of the potential impacts

 actions to mitigate the risks

Oh, yes …and

 tell the public what we are doing and what

they should do.

36
Now:
to manage a societal risk …
… draw together:
 scientific assessments of the specific risks
 assessments of the broader risks
 evaluations of the potential impacts
 actions to mitigate the risks
 communication of the issues and measures
taken to enable stakeholders to take
informed decisions

37
Future: to manage a societal risk …
… we need to draw together:
 scientific assessments of the specific risks
 assessments of the broader risks
 evaluations of the potential impacts
 actions to mitigate the risks

38
Future: to manage a societal risk …
a ll
… we need to draw o f together:
e
n t t h
 scientific assessments
e in of the specific risks
em rs r r
lv
 assessments
l de
of the f o
broader fo risks
vo o n nd
n
 evaluationsh i o
I ke ofis thespotential a impacts
t a e c e .
s tod mitigate
 actions
e v
l et risks
they
s ci
e m so
th

39
Integrating Risk Management
and Risk Communication

40
Analysis – via questions
Create questions Create conditions for
communication

Question questions
Answer questions
(analyse models) Create understanding
Question answers

41
Substantive e-democracy …

… will require that the systems are

sensitive to risk communication issues
and recognise that there are a variety of
worldviews and perceptions amoung the
stakeholders.

42
Two additions to the programme

Today (late afternoon)

Brainstorming Session on how to
develop the TED programme over next
three years
Saturday (afternoon)
Every student to present 1-2 slides on
what how their own research might
integrate with TED objectives
43