Forecasting Technological Change

Session 4: Integrative Techniques

Paul A. Schumann, Jr.
Glocal Vantage, Inc.

05/23/17 1
 Sessions
Introduction
Trend Analysis Techniques
Expert Opinion Techniques
Integrative Techniques
Closing

05/23/17 2
 Sessions
Introduction
Trend Analysis Techniques
Expert Opinion Techniques
Integrative Techniques
Closing

05/23/17 3
 4. Integrative Techniques
SWOT
Strategic Market Analysis
Cross Impact Analysis
Mathematical Models
Innovation Map
Scenarios
Road Maps
05/23/17 4
 4. Integrative Techniques
SWOT
Strategic Market Analysis
Cross Impact Analysis
Mathematical Models
Innovation Map
Scenarios
Road Maps
05/23/17 5
 SWOT
Internal Internal Environment
Weaknesses Strengths
Strengths

Threats Opportunities
External Environment
Explore Exploit
Weaknesses
External Avoid Confront

Opportunities
Threats Glocal Vantage, Inc.

05/23/17 6
 SWOT (cont.)
Primarily a way to collect and display
information to make a strategic decision
Can be used in
Groups
Survey
Interview
Individual

05/23/17 7
 SWOT (cont.)
Scaleable
Simplicity
Low cost
Flexibility
Collaborative
Quickness
Integratable
05/23/17 8
 SWOT Suggestions
Be comprehensive
Manage group dynamics
Keep the thinking straight
Fight for clarity

05/23/17 9
 4. Integrative Techniques
SWOT
Strategic Market Analysis
Cross Impact Analysis
Mathematical Models
Innovation Map
Scenarios
Road Maps
05/23/17 10
 Strategic Market Analysis
A logical way to structure a forecast
program and integrate the results of
individual forecasts
Provides a way to examine interactions
Can be used as a tool to facilitate
groups, surveys or interviews; or a tool
to manage a forecasting effort

05/23/17 11
 A Market

Sociopolitical Demographic

Competitors Customers Technologies

Economic Scientific

Opportunity Threat

05/23/17 12
 Customers
Present
Potential
Possible

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 Competitors
Direct
Indirect
Structural

05/23/17 14
 Technologies
Embedded
Supportive
Enabling

05/23/17 15
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology

Basics
Driving forces
Customer needs
Competitive
responses
Technological
capabilities

05/23/17 16
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology

Basics Identify and define

Driving forces the market
Customer needs Select a time frame
Competitive Identify and
responses describe questions
Technological to be answered or
capabilities decisions to be
made

05/23/17 17
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology

Basics Identify and

Driving forces describe the driving
forces for change
Customer needs
Look for positive or
Competitive
responses negative interactions
Technological
capabilities

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 Driving Forces
ic al
ph t i c c ic
a l i fi m
o gr p o n t i
n o
e m cio c ie c o
D So S E

Demographic

Sociopolitical

Scientific

Economic
05/23/17 19
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology

Basics Identify and

Driving forces describe customers
Customer needs Determine present
Competitive needs
responses Forecast future
Technological needs
capabilities

05/23/17 20
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology

Basics Identify and

Driving forces describe
competitors
Customer needs
Describe present
Competitive
responses strategies
Forecast future
Technological
capabilities strategies

05/23/17 21
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology

Basics Identify and

Driving forces describe
technologies
Customer needs
Describer present
Competitive
responses capabilities
Forecast future
Technological
capabilities capabilities

05/23/17 22
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology

Interaction with
driving forces
Interaction with each
other
Synthesis

05/23/17 23
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology

Interaction with Examine and describe

driving forces the interactions of the
driving forces with
Interaction with each forecasted customer
other needs, competitive
Synthesis responses and
technological
capabilities
Revise forecast as
indicated

05/23/17 24
 Impacts of Driving Forces
al
e r ve g ic
m i t i lo es
t o t
e s o
us s p ie h n liti
C ed m g c bi
Ne Co rate e
T pa
St Ca
Demographic

Sociopolitical

Scientific

Economic
05/23/17 25
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology

Interaction with Examine and describe

driving forces the interactions among
forecasted customer
Interaction with each needs, competitive
other responses and
Synthesis technological
capabilities
Revise the forecast as
indicated

05/23/17 26
 Cross Impacts
al
e r ve g ic
m i t i lo es
t o t
e s o
us s p ie h n liti
C ed m g c bi
Ne Co rate e
T pa
St Ca
Customer
Needs

Competitive
Responses

Technological
Capabilities
05/23/17 27
Customers, Competition & the Future of Technology

Interaction with Combine the results

driving forces of all of the
Interaction with each forecasts and
other analyses into a
Synthesis strategic market
analysis
Executive summary
Detail analysis
Data
05/23/17 28
 4. Integrative Techniques
SWOT
Strategic Market Analysis
Cross Impact Analysis
Mathematical Models
Innovation Map
Scenarios
Road Maps
05/23/17 29
 Cross Impact Analysis
Provides a way to incorporate interacting
forces in a forecast
>16 different types in use
Separate and explicit account is taken of the
causal connections among a series of
forecasted events and/or trends
Systematic means of combining forecasts
Interative use of a cross impact matrix

05/23/17 30
 Cross Impact (cont.)
Effective technique for examining the
probability that an advance in technology will
be affected by external forces
Useful for identify key technologies (technology
that has a strong relationship with other
technologies)
Qualitative or quantitative
Time dimension can be added through the use
of Markov chains
05/23/17 31
 Cross Impact Matrix
If this Event Occurs
A B C ... N
The Probability of This

A
Event Becomes

B
C
... N

05/23/17 32
 Cross Impact Example
Fax Product

The Probability of this Initial If This Event Occurs Final

Event Becomes Probability Increased Taxes/Cost Negative Legislation Replacement Technology Market Saturation Probability
Increased Taxes/Cost 0.70 1.00 0.40 0.70 0.51 0.60
Negative Legislation 0.40 0.20 1.00 0.38 0.31 0.50
Replacement Technology 0.60 0.90 0.72 1.00 0.33 0.51
Market Saturation 0.45 0.33 0.35 0.05 1.00 0.51

Source: Porter, et al

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 4. Integrative Techniques
SWOT
Strategic Market Analysis
Cross Impact Analysis
Mathematical Models
Innovation Map
Scenarios
Road Maps
05/23/17 34
 Mathematical Models
Usually custom developed
Application specific
Structure and dynamics
Ways to integrate and relate a number of variables
Technology
Costs
Market
Economics
Goal is to be predictive
05/23/17 35
 Mathematical Model Example

05/23/17 Source: Allan, 1999 36

 4. Integrative Techniques
SWOT
Strategic Market Analysis
Cross Impact Analysis
Mathematical Models
Innovation Map
Scenarios
Road Maps
05/23/17 37
 Types of Innovation
Nature
Product
Process
Procedure
Class
Incremental
Distinctive
Breakthrough

05/23/17 38
 The S-Curve and Innovation
Incremental

Breakthrough Incremental
Productivity

Distinctive

Incremental
Distinctive

Time
Incremental
05/23/17 39
 Innovation Map
gh
t al e ou
e n it v th
r
m c k
cr
e ti n re
a
In is B
D

Product

Process

Procedure

05/23/17 40
 Automotive History
Experimenters & Hobbyists (1820s - 1900s)
Search & Learn (1900s - 1908)
A Car for Everyone (1908 - 1927)
Living Room on Wheels (1920s - 1950s)
Synthesizing Market Demands (1950s -
1980s)
Life Style on Wheels (1980s - 2000s)

05/23/17 41
 Experimenters & Hobbyists

Product
Process
m en tal tive Procedure
cre in c
In Dist t hro ugh
Break
05/23/17 42
 Search & Learn

Product
Process
ta l Procedure
re m en c t ive
In c in
Dist t hr o ugh
Break

05/23/17 43
 A Car for Everyone

Product
Process
ta l Procedure
re m en c t ive
In c in
Dist t hr o ugh
Break

05/23/17 44
 Living Room on Wheels

Product
Process
ta l Procedure
re m en c t ive
In c in
Dist t hr o ugh
Break

05/23/17 45
 Synthesizing Market Demands

Product
Process
t al Procedure
re m en c t ive
In c in
Dist t hr o ugh
Break
05/23/17 46
 Life Style on Wheels

Product
Process
t al Procedure
rem e n c t ive
Inc in
Dist t h ro ugh
Break
05/23/17 47
 Innovation Mapping
Way to integrate and display a lot of
information
Can be predictive
Analogy
Historical trends
Opportunity/Threat Analysis

05/23/17 48
 Forecast Example
Overall

4.5
4
3.5
3
Relative 2.5
Strength 2
1.5
1
Procedure
0.5
0 Process
Product
Incremental

Distinctive

Breakthrough

05/23/17 49
 4. Integrative Techniques
SWOT
Strategic Market Analysis
Cross Impact Analysis
Mathematical Models
Innovation Map
Scenarios
Road Maps
05/23/17 50
 Scenarios
Narrative descriptions of possible futures
Alternative future characteristics of a technology
Alternative environments into which future
technology must evolve
Effective way to integrate and communicate
Useful as stand-alone forecasts if time series
data, expertise or models are lacking
Normative or projective

05/23/17 51
 Scenarios (cont.)
Full richness of a future can be incorporated
into imaginative descriptions
Can provide rich, complex portraits of possible
futures
Can incorporate a wide range of quantitative
and qualitative information produced by other
forecasting techniques
Effective way of communicating forecasts to a
wide variety of people
05/23/17 52
 Scenarios (cont.)
Strategy development tool
Multiple scenarios usually required
Decision space
Drivers
Minimum of four scenarios

05/23/17 53
 AF 2025 (1995-96)
Most important drivers
TeK: differential in the rate of economic growth &
proliferation of technology
World Power Grid: generation, transmission &
distribution and control of power, political,
economic and military, throughout the world
American World View: US perspective of the
world; its willingness & capability to interact with
the rest of the world
Source:www.au.af.mil/au/2025/monographs/E-S/e-s.htm

05/23/17 54
 AF 2025 (cont.)

05/23/17 55
 AF 2025 (cont.)
Global Information Space-Based High Energy
Management System Laser System
Sanctuary Base Solar-Powered High Energy
Global Surveillance, Laser System
Reconnaissance & Uninhabited Reconnaissance
Targeting System Aerial Vehicle
Global Area Strike Attack Microbots
System Piloted Single-Stage-to-Orbit
Uninhabited Combat Air Transatmospheric Vehicle
Vehicle
05/23/17 56
 4. Integrative Techniques
SWOT
Strategic Market Analysis
Cross Impact Analysis
Mathematical Models
Innovation Map
Scenarios
Road Maps
05/23/17 57
 Road Maps
Projection of major technological elements of
product design and manufacturing together with
strategies for reaching desirable milestones
efficiently
Roadmaps typically run several technology or
product generations (2 to 10 years)
A science and technology roadmap provides a
consensus view of the future science and
technology environment available for decision
makers

05/23/17 58
 Road Maps (cont.)
Predictive elements are supplemented with
targeted normative elements
Goal is to be more actionable
Avoids objectionable terms like strategic
planning and forecasting
Industry associations and consortia have
embraced
Corporations are using to help direct R&D
efforts

05/23/17 59
 ITRS Roadmap

Source: http://public.itrs.
net/Files/2001ITRS/Home.htm

05/23/17 60
 ITRS Roadmap (cont.)
Front end processes Test & test equipment
Lithography Environment, safety &
Interconnect health
System drivers Yield enhancement
Design Metrology
Factory integration Process integration,
devices & structures
Assembly &
packaging Modeling & simulation
05/23/17 61
 ITRS Roadmap (cont.)

05/23/17 62
 Integrative Techniques
Potential Future Reality
SWOT
Strategic Market
Integrative
Analysis Purpose Final
Techniques
Cross Impact Expert
Application Productive
Analysis Opinion
Mathematical Trend Change Formal
Models Analysis
Surveillance Data, Insight Material
Innovation Map
Scenarios
Road Maps
05/23/17 63
 Glocal Vantage, Inc.
PO Box 161475
Austin, TX 78716
(512) 632-6586
paul.schumann@glocalvantage.com
www.glocalvantage.com
http://incollaboration.com
Twitter: innovant2003
Glocal Vantage, Inc. 64
 Paul Schumann
Futurist and innovation consultant
Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic
intelligence systems
Web 2.0 tools & technologies
Application of web 2.0 to democratic processes
Broad perspectives on the future
Services
Strategic market research & technology forecasting
Intelligence systems consulting
Seminars, webinars & presentations
Glocal Vantage, Inc. 65
This work is licensed under
the Creative Commons
Attribution license. You may
distribute, remix, tweak,
and build upon this work,
even commercially, as long
as you credit me for the
original creation as Paul
Schumann, Glocal Vantage
Inc,
www.glocalvantage.com.