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-HIELO-NIEVE-GLACIARES
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Variability and Trends in Antarctic Surface Temperatures from In Situ and
Satellite Infrared Measurements
JOSEFINO C. COMISO Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes, NASA Goddard Space Flight
Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
The surface air temperatures observed from stations in Antarctica have been shown
to have predominantly positive trends that are as high as 0.58C decade21 along the
Antarctic Peninsula. To evaluate whether the trends are caused by a local or large-
scale phenomenon in the Antarctic region, surface temperatures inferred from
infrared satellite data from 1979 to 1998 have been analyzed in combination with data
from 21 stations that have long record lengths. The surface temperatures derived
from infrared data are coherent spatially and temporally and are shown to agree well
with Antarctic station data with a correlation coefficient of 0.98 and a
standard deviation of about 38C. The trend analysis on station data yielded on the
average 0.012 6 0.0088C yr21 and 20.008 6 0.0258C yr21 for the 45- and 20-yr record,
respectively. The latter reasonably agrees with the trend of 20.042 6 0.0678C yr21
inferred from the satellite 20-yr record. The 20-yr record length is shown to be about
the minimum length required for a meaningful trend analysis study. However,
interannual fluctuations of the temperatures are large and the 95% confidence level
for the satellite trends ranges from 20.177 to 0.0948C yr21 for the Antarctic ice sheet.
Nevertheless, the observed cooling is intriguing, especially since it is compatible with
the observed trend in the sea ice cover. In the sea ice regions, the northernmost
positions of the ice edge are shown to be influenced by alternating warm and cold
anomalies around the continent. The pattern of these anomalies is consistent with
that of the Antarctic circumpolar wave but with predominantly mode-3 instead of
mode-2 wave as reported previously.
Proyecciones futuras
Globalidad del Cambio Climtico
Puede el calentamiento ser natural?
CONCLUSIONES
La Peninsula Antrtica y las estaciones chilenas
muestran un tendencia al aumento de las T en los
ltimos 50 aos. As tambin lo muestras las
estaciones chilenas