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March 2017
Post-Independence fiscal history
Till 60s mixed economy, major public investments in certain sectors, wars, famines,
green revolution, highly concentrated Tax system and Financial system not conducive
to growth, almost no debt and deficit; average 3% p.a. Hindu rate of growth
Decade of 70s nationalization wave, 1971 war, post-war inflation, oil shock, aversion
to debt and deficit continues
Decade of 80s liberalization and move to higher growth trajectory, rapid build-up of
debt and deficit; Balance of Payments crisis 1990-91 forex reserves dip below US$1
b
1990-91 to 2002-03 reforms and liberalization initiated in trade, investment, taxation,
public debt, capital markets, financial sector, power, telecom; SE Asian crisis, liquidity
crunch; high interest rates and wage revision cause fiscal stress, reforms pushed
2003-08 Reforms bear fruit, Service sector boom, oil shock, international push and
pull lead to surge in forex reserves; tax buoyancy and liquidity glut bring relief in
fiscal stress
2008-09 to 2012-13 - Impact of global food /energy/financial crisis on exports,
ballooning fiscal deficit, rising interest rates and inflation, fiscal stress at critical
point, savings diverted to gold, crude oil price fall brings relief but concerns remain
due to legacy issues
2013-14 onwards Attempts to return to fiscal consolidation path, governance and
public finance reforms to push financial inclusion, improvement in tax collection,
investment promotion, Make In India, JAM Trinity and the ongoing Remonetization
lesscash economy
Budgetary Concerns: Past and present
Low Tax : GDP ratio (about 10% Centre, 7% States)
Central Tax:GDP peaked to 12% in 2007-08 as reforms bear fruit
coupled with economic upturn; State taxes more buoyant with VAT
Stagnant non-tax revenues and low financial return on public
investments (about 3%), under-recovery of costs an enduring concern
Increasing balkanization of Consolidated Fund with reserve funds,
earmarked revenues and sectoral ploughback
Increasing commitments of debt service, subsidies, defence and internal
security, and establishment costs, support to parastatal sap budget
maneuverability
Huge backlog of physical and social infrastructure
Preponderance of revenue expenditure in the overall public
expenditure implying slower creation of productive assets
Grants for financing Capital expenditure substitution or real
increase in asset stock. Quality and income aspects of assets
Major planks of budgetary reforms:
Areas of concern and responses
Legislative control of debt and deficit, Institutional reforms through
FRBM Act, 2003
Tax reforms - reduce tax rates and increase tax base
Parastatal reforms -minimize Governments role as financial
intermediary
Performance / Outcome Budget
Increased transparency in budget preparation and in-depth
examination; Legislative Committee system;
Zero-Based budgeting for portfolio consolidation
Oversight by civil society (RTI Act) on budget implementation
Budgets have more transfers to parastatal and less direct expenditure,
less and less capital expenditure
Standardization of Budget formats and accounting reforms
Fiscal consolidation on course in many States, reaching revenue surplus,
with/without Central aid [Splurge or consolidate? Debt redemption?]
Why is Fiscal Responsibility so important?
Taxation
Expenditure
Financing of deficit
Demand Supply
External
financing
Governments
Deficit
The Commission has recommend that each State should enact fiscal
responsibility legislation. This legislation should, at a minimum,
provide for
(a) eliminating revenue deficit by 2008-09;
deficits;
(d) bringing out annual statement giving prospects for the state