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Recent global warming is normal,

NOT exceptional

Khalil Karami
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoritical Physics, University of Cambridge, UK
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
The Butterfly Effect

Edward Lorenz
MIT mathematician-meteorologist
Pioneer of chaos theory
1917-2008

0.506 from the printout instead of 0.506127


KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Ensemble Forecasting
Superstorm SANDY
October 2012 29 October

Predicted by ECMWF 27 October


Not by NOAA&NASA
>185 km/h
233 death
>$75 billion

22 October
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Martin Hoerling NOAA scientist (The New York Times 28 October 2012):
Global warming causes more frequent and stronger storms.
IPCC: from 1988-2014: Climate is changing and human is
responsible for global warming.
4 :1392
: 2100
.
22 :1394 :
70 .
2 :1394
30 .

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
The whole science is about testing hypothesis:

CO2 emission by human causes


dangerous climate change (Catastrophe).

Dangerous: More floods, storms, heat waves,

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Global Warming

Atmospheric greenhouses gases:


Water vapor causes ~70% greenhouse
effect.
Carbon dioxide 10-20 %.
methane 5-10 %.
Ozone 3-7 %.

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Atmospheric gases only absorb some wavelengths of energy but are transparent
to others. Water vapor is by far the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.
CO2 is only efficient in wavelength 12-15 micrometers.
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Global 12-month cyclone frequency over tropics (1979-2009)
Source: Florida State University, hurricane center

Do not look like things are getting worse

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
IPCC 4 assessment report: Working Group I: The physical Science Basis:
th

Global warming increases extremes of intense precipitation, rainfall and snowfall events
producing more runoff over Europe and other mid-latitude regions.

Storm-Track Dynamics

Baroclinicity and cyclogenesis in the extratropics are a function of temperature


gradients between equator and pole

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Martin Hoerling NOAA scientist (The New York Times 28 October
2012): Global warming causes stronger storms.

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Welcome to the world of :

Climate Alarmism Kyoto Protocol


3-Politicians
IPCC

Paris climate change conference

1-Climate Scientists 2-Environmentalists


CO2 is rising Man is responsible
CO2 must be reduced
We must prevent a disaster
T is rising might be
could be
Ice is melting expected to be Save the planet!!
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
CO2 is not a pollutant
We breath in 400 ppm and then exhale 40,000 ppm with NO ill effects. Therefore the
best way to reduce CO2 emission is stop breathing!!!
We breath the 40,000 ppm into victims needing CPR and it help them.

The monitoring systems in U.S. submarines do not provide an alert until CO2 levels
reach 8,000 ppm.

CO2 is good for plants. It helps them grow faster.

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Most of the Temperature increase has
From 1889-1998 temperature has increased ~ 0.8 K and
occurred before the impact of CO2
CO2 increased from 295 ppm to 367 ppm i.e 72 ppm.
CO2 concentration
CO2 has increased
before industrial
from 367 ppm to 403 ppm since
1998 i. e. 36 ppm
revolution: 280 ppmv or half of the previous 100 years
while temperature has been stable.

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Scott, L et al , Science, (2007):
"Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial ,
Atmospheric CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming"

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Paleo-climate records (Proxies):
Past samples of the Atmosphere
Tree Ice Sediments
rings cores

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Is the recent warming unusual?
Absolutely not

The so-called
human-induced
global warming

Richard B. Alley, The Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and our
Future, Princton U. Press,
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
Princton, 2002.
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Modern atmospheric observations
and Data Collection

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Zanjan Weather Station (1983-present)

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Weather Station, Arizona (1900)

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Weather Station, Arizona (modern)

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
MODIS Observed Global urban heat island
effect

Jin et al. : J. of Climate, (2005)


KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Anomaly relative to 1966-1995

If you torture the data long enough, it will confess.


Roland H. Coase, Winner of Nobel Prize in Economics, 1991.
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Possible causes of natural Temperature variations in the
past and possible current warming

solar activity volcanic activity

ocean circulation

Variations in Earths Orbit


KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Model hierarchies from Molecular Biology to Climate Science

Held. I., (2005):The Gap Between Simulation and Understanding in Climate Modeling, AMS.
Model Organism

Escherichia Coli Bacillus subtilis Drosophila melanogaster mouse

Zero-dimensional Radiative-convective Higher-dimension global climate models or


models: models models general circulation models
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Interactions in climate system
For a single point in
the atmosphere
Tchange
solar IR(gain) IR(loss)
time
conduction convection
evaporation condensation
advection

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association Holton. J, Introduction to dynamical meteorology, 2004.
Atmosphere

u 1

momentum uu 2u p gk F (u)
t

mass (u) 0
t
p RT; f (T, q)
T
uT SW LW SH LH (T)
Energy t
SW f (clouds, aerosols
,...)
LW f (T, q,CO2,GHG ...)
q
water vapor uq Evap
Condensati
on (q)
t
Ocean

u 2 1
momentum u 2 u 2 2 u 2 p F
t 0 0
wind stres

w
mass u 2 0
z
p
0 g ; f (T ,s )
z
energy T
u 3 T Q 0 (T )
t
surface heating

salinity s s0
u 3 s (E P ) (s)
t 0 z 0

freshwater flux
How reliable are the current generation of climate
models?

No more global warming

No more global warming

Kosoka. Y et al, Nature, (2013): No more global warming compared to 1980-


1999 period.
Key question: why we have recent pause in global warming?
Net radiation imbalance at the top of the atmosphere

If you torture the data long enough, it will confess.


Roland H. Coase, Winner of Nobel Prize in Economics, 1991.
MODIS satellite :
Major rainfall in the tropics:
0=central date of major rainfall
Surface Temperature
As the heating progresses, the low
clouds in green increase (more
evaporation) but high clouds made
by ice decreases sharply.

Reduction of high top clouds after warming


periods act like White blood cells. Our models
do not have those cells to bring the system back
to balance.
Is it warming or not?
Profoundly depends on the definition

Definition of Global warming


according to NASA :

Global mean surface


temperature change relative to
the 1951-1980 mean.

Source: NASA GISS( Goddard


Institute for Space Studies)
Climate prediction
4 :1392
:
2100
.

Prediction is very difficult, especially if its


22 :1394
about the future. :
Niels
Bohr
70 .

2 :1394
30 .
How accurate are the model predictions?

DEC. 21, 2006: NASA Official Website:


Solar cycle 24, looks like its going to be
one of the most intense cycles since record-
keeping began almost 400 years ago.

They have combined observations of the


suns Great Conveyer Belt with a The weakest sunspot cycle in more than a
sophisticated computer model of the suns century.
inner dynamo to produce a physics-based
prediction of the next solar cycle.
ENSO forecasts from various
statistical and dynamical models
.Some information for further thoughts

Do you believe that CO2 is major climate driver? We have tested


this hypothesis and it failed.

Mann, M., :Defining dangerous anthropogenic interference, PNAS, (2009):

To properly define Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference, one must take into


account the factors that are not only scientific, but economic, political and .

Romm. J., climate change (2015)


People , including highly informed people, believe that if we stop increasing
emissions, then global warming will stop. A key related point of confusion is
that temperatures do not stop rising once atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have
stabilized.
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
42

Some key questions and my personal conclusions:


Is the world warming?
Has been, but not beyond natural ranges
From ~1880 to 2015 temperature has increased from 288 K to 288.8 K
(0.3 %), i.e, amazingly stable!
No warming in the last 15 years

Is that warming due to mans CO2 emissions?


Possibly some certainly not most.
What do we really need?
Stop exaggerating;
Science education;
Transparency in climate science;

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Recent global warming is normal,
NOT exceptional

Khalil Karami
Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, KIT, Germany
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoritical Physics, University of Cambridge, UK

Thanks
For
Listening
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Back-up slides

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Oceanic Conveyor ON

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Oceanic Conveyor OFF

KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and


National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are the best-
known temperature fluctuations in the last millennium
IPCC first assessment report
(Figure 7.1.c)
Anomaly: compared to 1900.

Early IPCC report :recent


warming is unexceptional.

Vineyards in Greenland and


during medieval warm period.

Blue and black: IPCC third


assessment report (2001).
Red: IPCC first report (1990).
KIT University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association

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