: Cuando la Innovacion

en un Sector de la
Economia require de un
Cambio Constitucional
Mexico
Benigna Leiss
Ex - Directora General
Chevron Energa de Mxico

Escuela de Derecho

Antofagasta 7 de Septiembre de 2017

2016 Chevron Corporation
 Innovacion y Volatilidad en el Sector Energetico

Demanda de energa a nivel mundial

Petropoltica y economa global

Fluctuaciones del precio del petrleo, oferta y demanda

Mexico en el contexto globalMonopolio exitoso

Monopolio exitoso
Condiciones cambian
Innovacion requiere cambiar la Constitucion
Disenar un nuevo marco legal y regulatorio

2016 Chevron Corporation 2

 energa
mtricas - demanda mundial
400

247 MMBOEPD 263 MMBOEPD 339 MMBOEPD

350
Millions Barrel Oil Equivalent per day

300 Pronstico

250

200

150

100

50

0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034

Carbn Petrleo Gas Nuclear Hydro Otras energas renovables Otros combustibles slidos

2015-2035 crecimiento de ms de 75 millones de barriles de petrleo

equivalente diarios

2016 Chevron Corporation Fuente: Wood Mackenzie Energy Market 3

 demanda de petrleo y gas natural

demanda mundial de petrleo por 100 demanda mundial de gas por regin
100

Million Barrel Gas per Day ( BOED)

regin
90
90 Pronstico
Million barrel Oil per Day ( BOED)

80
80
70 Pronstico
70
60
60
50
50
40
40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0

Estados Unidos Europa China

Estados Unidos Europa China
Amrica Latina India Africa
Amrica Latina India Africa
Resto del Mundo
Resto del Mundo

2015-2035 crecimiento de demanda:

~10 millones barriles de petrleo equivalente diarios de petrleo
~25 millones barriles de petrleo equivalente diarios de gas

2016 Chevron Corporation Fuente: Wood Mackenzie Energy Market 4

 para suplir la brecha energtica
se necesitan nuevas fuentes de abastecimiento a largo
plazo
Oferta y Demanda Global de Lquidos ~10 a 15% declinacin en la
MMBD
120 produccin base
~105 MMBD
~90 MMBD
100
~265 Billones
60 MMBD de nueva capacidad
80 Barriles (requeridos se necesitara para 2035
entre 2014-2035)

60
Base con lo cual requiere una inversin
40
inversin significativa

20 dado el incremento en la
Produccin base existente
complejidad del desarrollo
-
2014 2035

2016 Chevron Corporation Fuente: IEA WEO 2013/201 / Analysis 5

 agenda geopoltica y oferta de petrleo
Incremento de la
produccin de produccin de Brent
petrleo Shale y OPEP $/bbl
MMBPD mantiene su
100 produccin. 120

Colapso
financiero
75 90
global
Guerra
Irn-Iraq Arabia Saudita Crisis
50 abandona su rol de financiera 60
productor Asitica
Embargo de oscilante (swing OPEP reduce
petrleo rabe producer) cuotas
25 4.2 MMBD 30

Ataques 9/11
0 0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Pre- 1960 Durante los 70 De los 80 a inicios de 2000 20002010 2010 a la fecha
Resurgimiento de las compaas Expansin de
Pre-nacionalizacin Nacionalizacin de Expansin de Shale en
internacionales de petrleo. compaas nacionales
de las Siete Recursos. Estados Unidos.
Consolidacin de la Industria. de petrleo y su
Hermanas Surgimiento de la OPEP Desaceleracin
internacionalizacin.
econmica de China.

2016 Chevron Corporation Fuente: BP Estadsticas, Revisin 2014 y Wood Mackenzie (produccin) 6
US Energy Agency (precios)
 dinmica de la poltica actual

Aumento de la produccin en
EUA sobre los 4MMBPD en
los ltimos 5 aos. Mientras
OPEP mantiene su
produccin Fte: CNN

Inventarios comerciales de
crudo por encima del
promedio histrico en 5 aos
Comercio

La prohibicin de exportacin a
Irn se elimin el 16 de enero de China debe adaptarse a un
2015 aadiendo 500 MBPD en crecimiento mas lento
2016

Fuente: Reuters
2016 Chevron Corporation 7
Fuente: smh.com.au
8
Mexico has six hydrocarbon producing basins and six which
are not producing

Mexico Oil Basins

Gulf of
Mexico DW

Oil

2016 Chevron CorporationSource: Geological Considerations of Oil Reform, Alfredo E. Guzmans Presentation, January, 2014 8
9
Mexico has discovered YTD 263,000 mmb of oil and 279 Tcf of
gas. However, during this time only, 15% oil and 26% gas have
been produced excluding future discoveries & unconventionals

Oil Gas Oil Equivalent

mmmb Tcf mmmboe
1. Volume Produced 40.6 71.6 55.0
2. Reserves (3P) 30.8 63.2 44.5

3. Conventional to be discovered 45.3 46.5 54.6

4. Unconventional estimated 31.9 141.5 60.2
5. Uneconomic remnant 191.9 144.7 220.7
Total 340.5 467.5 435.0

Base on the statistics above 159,000 mmboe have not been produced yet

2016 Chevron CorporationSource: Geological Considerations of Oil Reform, Alfredo E. Guzmans Presentation, January, 2014 9
10
Despite an increase in E&P investment, Mexican oil
production has declined from 3.4 million barrels per day in
2004 to 2.5 million in 2012

2016 Chevron Corporation

Source: Mexicos Energy Reform, Enrique Ochoa Rezas Presentation, December 19, 2013 10
11
Natural Gas, Gasoline and Petrochemical Trends from 1997 - 2012

Natural Gas Gasoline

Petrochemical

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12
Oil Production Forecast

Deepwater

Exploration
w/o DW

Other production
excluding Ku-
Maloob-Zaap,
Cantarell, Lakach Chicontepec
& Chicontepec

Ku-Maloob-Zaap
(including Ayatsil-
Tekel)

2016 Chevron Corporation 12

 The 5 Principles of the Constitutional
Reform

2016 Chevron Corporation 13

14
Reform to articles 25, 27 and 28, with 21 transitory articles
allow private investment in up, mid and downstream.

E&P

2016 Chevron Corporation

Source: Mexicos Energy Reform, Enrique Ochoa Rezas Presentation, December 19, 2013 14
 New Contractual Framework

The State is entitled to choose the Upstream Contract that best suits a particular
project

Service Contracts
Agreement where a private company is hired to perform a specific task, for which it
receives a remuneration previously established, in cash

Profit-sharing contracts
Agreement in which the profit (after tax and petroleum rent) is divided between the
State and the private company, in cash

Production-sharing contracts
Agreement in which the production is share between the State and the private
company without limiting the payment of taxes and the petroleum rent

Licenses
Where the oil company acquires title to the hydrocarbons at the wellhead, upon the
payment of taxes if commercial production occurs

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 In order to consolidate the new legal regime for the energy
sector, the Executive sent to Congress a package of 9
secondary initiatives that involves a total of 21 laws:

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