An Aging Population, Age Discrimination, and the Impact of Discrimination Laws Patrick Button Tulane University Rapidly Aging Population
The share of the population 65+
(seniors) was 9.0% in 1960, increased to 13.0% in 2010. Share of seniors in working-age population is currently 19.0%, projected to be 29% by 2060. Increasing Labor Force Participation of Seniors Meanwhile, seniors are also working longer. Their labor force participation rate (% working or looking for work) has been increasing rapidly, esp. for senior women. Men 65+ : 16.5% in Mar. 1985 to 20.2% in Mar. 2017 Women 65+ : 10.0% in Mar. 2000 to 15.9% in Mar. 2017 Putting it Together The aging population (more seniors) plus the increased LFP rate of seniors (seniors more likely to work) both increase make seniors a larger proportion of the labor force. From Mar. 1997 to Mar. 2017, proportion of senior men in LF doubled (1.7% to 3.4%). For senior women, more than doubled (1.2%, 2.7%). Proportion of the Labor Force that is Senior Women and Men How do Seniors Work Longer?
Employment could increase by
increasing the duration at existing jobs (retiring later) or by hiring into new jobs. Research suggests that the main way seniors work into older ages is by taking partial retirement or bridge jobs (e.g., Johnson et al., 2009). Bridge Jobs These are jobs that are more flexible, either more flexible hours/shifts or have job requirements that better fit with the preferences of seniors. Common even for individuals to retire and still work in these jobs (partial retirement) or come out of retirement to take these jobs (un-retirement) (Maestas, 2010). Why are Seniors Working Longer? There are push and pull factors. Pull = personal reasons/preference for working longer (voluntary) Push = external forces that push seniors into the labor force when they wouldnt otherwise go (involuntary) Pull Factors Health is improving at older ages as medicine improves. Fewer declines in cognitive and physical skills in recent generations. Many skills do not decline near retirement age (e.g., verbal abilities, quantitative abilities, some problem solving abilities, control movement, stamina) (Belbase et al., 2015) Work is tied to identity (Riach and Loretto, 2009) and is tied to improved health (Calvo, 2006). Push Factors Poverty rates are high for seniors, especially women (Sandall and Iams, 1997) due to lack of income. Income sources: Social Security, Pensions, Private Savings all low. Push Factors SS Benefits Social Security benefits are low, around 41% of previous earnings (Munnell and Sass, 2007) SS benefits were cut by the increase in the full- benefits retirement age from 65 to 67 Future increases to the retirement age or to SS benefits are likely required, since the SS Trust Fund is expected to be exhausted by 2037 (SS Board of Trustees, 2009) Push Factors - Pensions
Less than half of seniors have
employer-sponsored pensions Typical pension has a balance of only $60,000 at retirement (Munnell and Sunden, 2006) Push Factors Personal Savings Personal savings is also low Almost all the savings undertaken by the working-age population occurred in pension plans, and in recent years the saving rate outside of pensions has actually been negative (Munnell and Sass, 2007) Importance of Hiring
Since most of the increased employment of
seniors occurs through bridge jobs, increasing hiring is important to reduce poverty for seniors and to reduce pressure on the SS Trust Fund (avoiding bigger SS cuts in the future). However, age discrimination remains a barrier. Evidence of Age Discrimination Best evidence to quantify age discrimination comes from resume- correspondence studies (Neumark, 2016). Studies create fictitious-but-realistic job applicants that are on-average identical except for age**, which is signaled through graduation year. Resume Correspondence Studies Resumes then sent to actual job openings. Hiring discrimination measured by comparing the interview rate. Most discrimination occurs at the interview offer stage (90%, according to International Labor Organization studies). Neumark, Burn, and Button (2015) Largest resume study to date, over 40,000 resumes sent to 13,000 jobs in 12 cities. Common bridge jobs: retail sales (men and women), admin. assistant (women), janitor (men), security (men) Resumes were for young (age 30), middle age (50) and older (65). Age 65 is new to the literature. Interview (Callback) Rates Age Discrimination Laws Federal: Age Discrimination in Employment Act (ADEA) of 1968, all but three states have similar, but sometimes broader or stronger, state laws. To what extent can age discrimination laws reduce age discrimination in hiring? Theory and empirical studies provide mixed predictions. Evidence suggests laws dont protect older women. Age Laws - Theory Law forbids age discrimination in hiring, so this might suggest an increase in hiring of older workers. However, its hard to detect hiring discrimination, and damages are low, so attorneys are less likely to take those cases. The law creates a negative incentive to hire an older worker because they are harder to get rid of. Terminating an older worker, for discriminatory reasons or not, imposes more legal risk. Age Laws - Empirical
Empirical studies seek to examine
changes in age discrimination law over time to see how those changes have affected employment. Results lean positive, showing that expansions of age discrimination law improve employment outcomes. Intersectional Age-Plus-Sex Discrimination Older women can be discriminated against as an intersectional group: not just because they are female or because they are old, but the combination of the two. Hollywood is a good example. Older Women Fall in the Cracks The ADEA covers age, while Title VII of the Civil Rights Act covers discrimination on the basis of sex, race, etc. Because age and sex are covered in separate laws, courts have been reluctant to allow for an intersectional claim. Meanwhile, intersectional claims are readily allowed for sex and race, or anything where both are under Title VII Weakening of the ADEA
Another factor weakening the ADEA is
the Gross v. FBL Financial Services, Inc., Supreme Court decision. Gross made it so that the plaintiff has to prove by preponderance of the evidence that age was the but for cause for the alleged employment discrimination. Weakening of the ADEA
No longer possible to use a mixed-
motive framework. This makes all cases harder to prove, especially for women who want to use an intersectional claim since they cant claim that discrimination was but for age only. Summary
An aging population with increasing
need for older workers to work longer means that older workers are becoming a larger part of the labor force. Thus issues such as poverty among seniors and age discrimination are more important. Summary We want to support older workers who wish to work longer, but age discrimination is a barrier, especially for women. Laws may help, but they dont cover older women as much. Need to explore if strengthening age discrimination laws especially for older women could remove discriminatory barriers.