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Viet Nam :

Issues and Challenges

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer


Presentation to
Defence Intelligence Organisation:
Southeast Asia Program
ANU National Security College
November 15, 2017
Objectives
To understand:
The key defining features of Vietnam, socially,
politically and economically, and its worldview
and strategic significance
Vietnams key security-related challenges, and
social, political or other fault-lines and tensions
which could lead to security challenges
Outline
Geo-strategic setting
History, Demography and Religion
Economy and Society
Political System
Peoples Armed Forces
Foreign and Security Policy
Security Related Challenges
Geostrategic Setting

Viet Nam
Geo-Strategic Setting

Mainland state with long border on sea


Land borders with China, Laos and
Cambodia
Asymmetric power relations with China
Tyranny of geography
Maritime disputes with China impact on
development
Mekong Basin
Sub-Region Yunan
province
Vietnam is
adown
stream states
affected by
up stream
develop-
ments
Vietnams Territorial Disputes with China
in East Sea (South China Sea)
History
Chinese occupation - independence
Nam Tien or March South (Champa)
Monarchy & Confucianism
French Colonialism
War for Independence (1945-54)
Partition (1954-75)
Reunification (1976-)
Viet Nam Ethnic Groups

Vietnamese 86%
Ethnic minorities (Tay,
Thai, Muong, Khmer,
Hoa, Hmong, Nung,
etc.) 9%
Others 5%
Viet Nam Religious Groups

Buddhist 9.3% ?
(census)
Catholic 6.7%
Hoa Hao 1.5%
Cao Dai 1.1%
Protestant 0.5%
Economy
15th most populous
country 95.9m
(2017)
$556 billion GDP
(ppp) 34th in 2017
$201 billion GDP
(nominal) 47th 2017
Economic growth
rate 6.2% (2016)
Poverty rate 11.3%
(2012)
Still a Developing Country
Organisation Survey Ranking

World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness 55 out of


Report 2017-18 137

Heritage Foundation Index of Economic 63 out of


Freedom 2017 181

World Bank Ease of Doing Business 82 out of


Report, 2017 190

Transparency International Corruption Perceptions 113 out of


Index 2017 176

United Nations Development Human Development 115 out of


Programme Index 2016 188

Reporters Without Borders Worldwide Press 175 out of


Freedom Index 2017 180
Society
Weak State, Strong Society
Village autonomy
Multiethnic
Regionalism
Religion: Catholic, Hoa Hao, Cao Dai,
Protestant
Youth
Social media - Facebook
Political System

Leninist one-party/mono-organisational
Dual role elites
Gradual political liberalisation since 1992
No pluralism, multi-parties or opposition
Socialist market economy
Soft-authoritarian
Administrative Divisions
59 provinces
5 municipalities
Hanoi
Haiphong
Da Nang
Ho Chi Minh City
Can Tho
One-Party State

1. Vietnam Communist Party

3. Armed 4. Mass
2. The State
Forces Organisations
Peoples Armed Forces
Lc Lng V Trang Nhn Dn

Constitution (2013)
The people's armed forces shall show absolute loyalty
to the Fatherland, the People, the Party and the
State; protect the independence, sovereignty, unity
and territorial integrity of the Fatherland, national
security, and social order and safety; safeguard the
People, the Party, the State and the socialist regime;
and join the entire people in national construction
and the performance of international duties.
Peoples war and all-
peoples national
defence

8 Military Regions
(including Hanoi)
and 4 Corp HQ
Main Forces,
Local Forces

22 Economic
Defence Zones
(Khu Quan su-
Kinh te) 1998
Vietnams Force Posture
The posture of the all-peoples national defence
is the organization and disposition of the
national defence forces and potentialities
throughout the territory in conformity with the
integrated strategic intent to ensure victory over
any hostile plots and acts that violate the
independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity
and national interests of Vietnam, and to be
ready to pivot toward the posture of peoples
war once war occurs.
White Paper 2009, 45.
consumption and strong foreign investment fourth 636 KILO-class diesel-electric submarines
will support economic activity over the next from Russia were delivered to Vietnam in 2015.
five years. Vietnams economy is forecast to Media reportin
g indicates Vietnam has purchased

Viet Nam Defence Budget


average 6.1 per cent real growth to 2020,
according to the IMF.
the Israeli SPYDER air defence system. In
December, Vietnam unveiled the indigenously
manufactured HS-6L high-altitude long-endurance
UAV.

*This budget figure is based on a single unverified source.


Growth in Defence Spending
-v- Growth in GDP
Percentage of Government
Spending on Defence
UN PKO Southern Sudan

and Central African Republic, with engineering


and Hospital Level 2 Unit in training
Viet Nam: Foreign Relations

Multilaterialization and diversification,


reliable friend and partner to all
7th National Party Congress (1991)
China a friend, US strategic enemy
Resolution No. 3 (July 2002)
i tc cooperate/i tng struggle
Resolution No. 8 (July 2003 revised 2013)
independence, self-reliance, co-
operation and development
Providing Equity to the Major Powers

Multilateralization and diversification


12th National Congress (January 2016)
Diversify and multilateralize external relations
Strategic partnerships (16)
10 comprehensive partnerships
Equity to major partners
implement political commitments and
deepen cooperation
Strategic and
Comprehensiv Russia
e Partnershps 2001
France India
2013 2006

Viet
Nam
US Japan
2013 2007

UK China
2010 2009
Vietnam-Russian Federation
Strategic Partnership (2001)
Eight Areas of Cooperation
1. Political-diplomatic,
2. Military equipment and technology,
3. Oil and gas cooperation,
4. Energy cooperation for hydro and nuclear
power,
5. Trade and investment,
6. Science and technology,
7. Education and training, and
8. Culture and tourism
Gradual Force Modernisation

Su-30 MKK
Dutch Sigma-class
corvette on order

S-300 PMU1 (SA-10 Grumble) Gepard-class Guided Missile


Stealth Frigates
Gradual Force Modernisation

Svetlyak-class Fast Attack Craft

Bastion Anti-Ship Missile

Extended Range
Artillery Munitions
Gradual Force Modernisation

Vietnam has taken delivery of its


first three Kilo-class submarines,
HQ 182 Hanoi, HQ 183 Ho Chi
Minh City, HQ 184 Hai Phong, in
December 2013, March 2014 and
January 2015
Vietnam and India
MOU Defence Cooperation 2007
Defence Strategy Dialogue
Cooperation in national defence
Navy, air defence, transfer of medium-size
warships, spare parts
UN Peacekeeping training
Naval port visits
Submarine training
Modernization of Nha Trang port
Vietnam and India
Defence Cooperation
Defence co-production cruise missiles
Reciprocal language training
HA/DR and SAR
Joint training jungle and mountain warfare
Facilities for repair, maintenance and fuel
$100m Line of Credit for four OPVs
Pilot conversion training, Su-30s
Sale of BrahMos?
Relations with Japan

Largest provider of aid (ODA)


Major trade partner
2nd largest exporter
4th largest importer
Coast Guard SAR (2007)
Strategic Partnership
Defence Consultations (2011)
Normalization of Relations
China-Viet Nam United States-Viet Nam

Cambodian Conflict 1979-91 Vietnam War 1965-75


1990-91 Normalization 1995 Normalization
1999-2000 Comprehensive 2001 Bilateral Trade Agrm.
Cooperation in the New Century 2003 exchange of defence
2005 bilateral defence ministers
consultations 2004 annual defence dialogue
2009 strategic cooperative 2008 1st Political, Security and
partnership Defense Dialogue
2010 November 1st Strategic 2010 August 1st Defense
Defence Security Dialogue Policy Dialogue
China-Viet Nam Border Issues
Land Border Agreement 1999 Tonkin Gulf Demarcation 2000

Fisheries Agreement
2000 joint patrols
Viet Nams Maritime Development
Strategy 2020
Relations with the United States

2001 Bilateral Trade Agreement


Market access agreement 2006
2006 PNTR status, ITAR restrictions loosened
2010 1st Defence Policy Dialogue at deputy defence
minister level
Defence MOU (2011)
2013 Comprehensive Partnership
Arms embargo lifted 2016
$18-24
billion
deficit
with China

Viet Nam
US Trade
Relations
$32 billion
surplus
with the
US
Memorandum of Understanding Advancing
Bilateral Defense Cooperation 2011
Five Areas of Cooperation
1. Maritime Security
2. Search and Rescue
3. United Nations Peacekeeping Operations
4. Humanitarian and Disaster Relief
5. Between defense universities and
research institutes
Symbolic fly outs

USS John D. Stennis USS Jacksonville (SSN 699),


April 2009 Pacific Command, Dec 2009

USS George H.W. Bush Aug 2010 USS George Washington Aug 2010
Security Related Challenges
Democratic freedom, Illegal drug and weapons
religious freedom, and trafficking
human rights have been
abused by hostile forces to Piracy
undermine the great national Transnational crime
solidarity and to incite
violence and separatism in Terrorism
some areas of the country Illegal immigration and
disputes over sovereignty, migration
sovereign rights and
jurisdicton over the teritories Environmental degradation
in the East Sea non- Pandemics
traditional security issues
such as: Climate change

White Paper 2009, 17.


Security Related Challenges
East Sea Chinese militarization
Peaceful evolution/political civil society
Corruption banking sector
Environmental issues & foreign firms
Economic integration
Comprehensive and Progressive TPP &
Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership
Vietnam:
Issues & Challenges

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer


Email: c.thayer@adfa.edu.au

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