Natural Hazard

Risk Assessment

Prof. Ir. Widodo, MSCE, PhD

Earthquake Engineering Management

Master Program
Contents
Natural Hazards
Definitions
Risk Assessment
Types, Parameters
Hazards Assessment Nature of Hazards
Hazards Identification
Element at Risks
Hazards Assessment
Vulnerability Assessm.

Exposure Analysis is critical, detail and rigorous study/ exami-

ne of any object, its elements as well as its relation-
Capacity Assessment ship, cause and effects based on any particular
postulate
Consequence Assessment is also deep study but may less detail,
use estimation/assumption of any objects perfor-
Risk Assessment mance based on particular parameters/indicators
for judging the condition i.e good/no good, valid/
invalid, appropriate/inappropriate, meet/un meet etc.
1. Introduction
Natural hazard risk assessment refers to a comprehensive conceptual
framework in assessing of risk or probability of potential loss of any
objects under natural hazards.
Natural hazard risk assessment refers to the expected losses from a
particular hazard to a specified element at risk in a particular future
time period (UN Disaster Relief Coordinator).

Westen at el. (2009)

Hazards Assessment
1. Definitions
Hazard is a source of potential harm/damage or a situation with
a potential to cause loss (Australia, 2000)
A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon oh human activity
which may cause loss of life or injure, property damage, social and
economic disruption or environmental degradation (ISDR,2002)
Hazard is outer threat that commonly characterized in term of probability
of measurable physical parameters exceeding a certain threshold during
period of time
Hazard is a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or
human activity which may cause loss of life or injury, property damage,
social and economic disruption or environmental degradation
A hazard is an external threat. A future source of danger. It has potential
cause of harm/damage to :
1. People : death, injure, disease and stress,
2. Human Activity : economic, education, general service etc,
3. Property : property damage, economic loss,
4. Environmental : loss of flora and fauna, environmental damage

2.a Types of Hazards :

1. Natural hazard
2. Environmental hazard
3. Manmade/Activity hazard
Natural hazard is only one term in the possibility of hazards family. The
natural hazard becomes more general term as compared to others just
because of its possibility highest effects.
Westen,2012
 Tsunami
Liquefaction

Classification of hazard
event (Hewit & Burton,
1971)
 Natural Hazards
Number of Disasters over the World

1. Environmental Degradation
2. Populations Growth
3. Climate Change
 Natural Disaster in Asian Countries
160

140
Others
120 Flood
Eq/Volc/Lsd
100
Cyclone
Frequency

80

60

40

20

0
India
China

Nepal
Japan

Thailand
Burma

Korea
Bangladesh

Srilanka
Indonesia

Philippines
Pakistan

Vietnam
Sijabat, 1990
 Earthquake

Flood

Drought Landslides

Strong Winds

Year Affected people and scale

Indonesian Hazards Sta- Disast.type Disast.type Year Economic loss (US $x1000)

tistic, People affected Epidemic 1986 500000 Wildfire 1997 8000000

Wildfire 1994 3000000 Earthquake 2004 4451600
and Econ. loss (BNPB) Flood 1996 556000 Earthquake 2006 3100000
Drought 1997 1065000 Earthquake 2009 2200000
Flood 2002 500750 Wildfire 1998 1300000
Earthquake 2004 532868 Flood 2007 971000
Flood 2006 618486 Earthquake 2007 500000
Earthquake 2006 3177932 Flood 1996 434800
Earthquake 2007 459567 Flood 2002 350000
Earthquake 2009 2501798 Earthquake 2009 200000
 10o

Batak region

0o

-10o

120o 130o 140o

100o 110o
 Relationship between Isoseismic Lines and Aftershocks

N Rembang
II
Kudus II

Batang Demak
Waleri III Blora
SEMARANG
Godong

The 2006 Yogyakarta

IV Direction of
Ambarawa IV Opak fault
III
Temanggung
earthquake reminded Wonosobo Salatiga
III
Ngawi
researchers about the
Sragen
V
Banjarnegara IV Magelang
activity of Opak Fault IV
VV
Boyolali SOLO
VI
Kebumen VII
Sleman
Purworejo VI Klaten Sukoharjo
VI
IX VIII Magetan
Yogyakarta VII Opak V IV
fault
Wates VII VIII NIED VII
Wonogiri
IX VII
Indian Ocean Bantul VI
ERI USGS
ESDM Wonosari
CMT
BMKG
EMSC GEOFON

Pacitan
Java
a.Unstable lake
b.Glacier debris flow
c.Ice avalanches
d.Failure saturated sedm
e.Rock avalanches.
 Natural Hazards
7
8 9
11
6 10
4
5
2
12
3
3 3
1

1. Earthquake 6. Deforestation 11. Fires

2. Tsunami 7. Volcano Eruption 12. Liquefaction
3. Flood 8. Thunderstorm 14.
4. Landslide 9. Lightening 15.
5. Air Pollution 10. Drought 16.
Situ Gintung Disaster (2009)

Kawasan 10-15 m diba-wah

Situ Gintung meru-pakan
hunian padat

a)
Kawasan rawan bencana (Vulner)

Tanggul jebol, air waduk dan

lumpur langsung me-nyapu
pemukiman

Perumahan tersapu oleh air dan lumpur b)

An event of hazards that occurs in populated area is a hazardous event

2.b. Hazard Event and Parameters

Event/incident is an instant of occurrence of particular hazard. One
event may include a number of difference hazard (earthquake may
generate tsunami, landslide, fire etc)
Hazard event is an occurrence of external threat
Parameters :
In an hazard event, the degree of harm/damage is effected by parameters :
1) magnitude/size;
2) frequency of occurrence;
3) duration;
4) location and
5) effects
Magnitude of hazard become the most important characteristic in analyzing
hazard, since only occurrences exceeding some defined level of magnitu-
de are considered hazardous

Exposure
Exposure is the degree of which the objects/element at risks are exposed to
a particular of hazard. For example : 1) density (population, building); 2)
distance (near, far), 3) value (function, money/cost); 4) condition etc.

Exposure is employed to refer to the presence (location) of people, liveli-

hoods, environmental services and resources, infrastructure, or economic,
social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected by physi-
cal events and which, thereby, are subject to potential future harm, loss, or
damage. This definition includes physical and biological systems under the
concept of environmental services and resources, accepting that these are
fundamental for human welfare and security (Crichton, 1999; Gasper, 2010).
Types of Exposure :

1. Physical exposure (housing & population density and location

2. Economic exposure (valuable things : factory, industries, mining
3. Social Exposure (drop out, unemployment, uneducated, unskilled
4. Environmental exposure (elite complex, close to hazard source,
5. Demographical exposure (high birthrate, dense populated ..

Return Period
Major of natural hazards have their own return period according to the human
scale. Some natural hazards have relatively clear return period for instance 5
years, 10 years return period of flood, drought or fire. Volcano eruption,
earthquake or disease are among disasters who do not have any clear return
period.
 Dense housing area Dense population area

Industrial area
Hence, it has been identified that in natural hazard at least 3 important
aspects should be understood i.e return period, magnitude and effects
During past 150 years (period), more than 4500 houses (effect) in
Yogyakarta have fully destroyed under earthquake greater that M = 6,0
(magnitude)
For a recurrence interval of 100 years (period) for a flood suggests that
in any year a flood of that magnitude (magnitude) has a 1 % chance of
occurring

Home work 1 : Nature of Hazards

1 Definition and nature of hazard
2. Cause of hazard
3. Mechanism of hazard
4. Intensity, magnitude of hazard
5. Spatial impact & severity of hazard
6. Spatial distribution of hazard
7. Historical & return period of hazard,
8. Early warning & Forecasting of hazard
Global Trend of
Earthquake
Occurrence

50
Frekuensi
Frekuensi Kejadian (M>7)

40
Rata-rata
Trend
30

20

10

0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Tahun
Hazard in their occurrence parameter
3. Nature of Hazards
Natural man made
a. Natural and Man involuntary earthquake intense
made Hazards tsunami
volcano eruption
cyclone
tornado
flood
Some hazards are definitely drought
natural phenomena, howe- fires
ver, some of them are man transport accident
made/man contributions. industrial explosion
radio-active fall out
air pollution
civil riot
food additive
voluntary smoking diffuse
Smith, 2001
 Root causes Vibrations of ground motions due to release of
Nature of energy as a result of rock fault slipped
Characteristics Vibrations of ground surface, seismic energy
Hazards propagates in 3-dimensional directions

Example : Damage Potential Earthquake magnitude, ground motions (acc.,

Earthquake vel., displ, frequency content, earthq. duration),
hazard Types of Damage Ground breakings, settlements, liquefactions,
land-slides, rock fall, various structural damages
Predictability Earthquake can not be predicted, prediction so
far just in term of long term
Vulnerability No protection of hill side, soft soils, loose sand,
high water levels, unclear design method of
structures
Mitigation Applying Disaster Management in whole (Relief
and Rescue, Emergency Response, Recovery,
Prevention, Mitigation, Preparedness, Early
Warning).
 Hazards Characteristics

No Hazards Early Hazards Size Damage Area

Types Warning Duration
1 Earth No sec (10-300*) Magnitude,ML,Mw Man made Wide
quake Ground Accel. Environm.
2 Volcano OK day-weeks VEI (Volcano Ex- Environm. Wide
Eruption plosion Index) Man Made
3 Land/rock OK minute-hours Kenetic Energy Environm Local
slide Man made
4 Flood OK Hour-week Water Discharge, Environm Wide
velocity, Man made

5 Tsunami OK Minute-hours Tsunami Magn. Environm Wide

Man made
6 Strong OK Minute-hours Wind speed Environm Local
wind Man made
4. Hazard Identification and Vulnerability Assessment (HIVA)
HIVA is an important document that should be prepared in the
Preparedness period.
In the HIVA, amount of huge data are required. These data are required
as a basis for the purpose of analysis, decision making, solution the
problem etc.
The data required for the hazards assessment are not only the correspon-
ding hazards it selves but also all of the data regarding the county that will
be assessed. Among of the required data are the following items.
4.a County Profile
Among of the facts or county profiles that normally required are :
a. Location and general description of the county/sub-district
b. Special Characteristics
c. Environmental (water, air, land), Climate
d. Main infrastructure (highway, railway, airport/harbor etc)
e. Natural resources
4.b Demography
Among of the demographic data that required in the natural hazards
assessment are the following items :
a. Amount and population growth/trend
b. Spatial distribution of population
c. Population density
d. Distribution population by age
e. Genders Role
Angola,2005 (Wikipedia) China,2005 (Wikipedia)

Egypt ,2005 (Wikipedia)

Indonesia (?) Distribusi Korban (Ferreira & Oliveira,2009)
 4.b Social Aspect in Internal Vulnerability
a. Education Distribution
b. Job/Occupation
c. Income/Salary
d. Awareness, Knowledge,
e. Skill, Experience, Participation
f. Networking
g. Social capacity (Philosophy, Attitude etc)
h. Code, Manual, Leaflet, Poster, Media,
i. Government Coordination

Pop. Distr. By Age (DIY, 2005)

 4.c Topography
Topography is the shape or configuration
of the land, represented on the map by
contour lines, picture or landscape
4.d Hydrology

Hydrology is the study of the movement/

circulation, distribution and quality of wa-
ter on earth including hydrologic cycles,
water resources and environmental wa-
tershed sustainability (Wikipedia)
4.e Inventory Assets
Several types of assets may vulnerable to the natural hazards. The economical loss
of the assets due to natural hazards is a critical or important aspects in the natural
hazards assessment. Among of the corresponding assets are in the following
description (Smith, 2001).
1. Environmental Assets
Including in the environmental assets are facts of the geography, landscape,
topography, slope, lakes, streams, waterways, wetlands, soils, faults, wild-land,
forests, watersheds, coastal dunes and other resources contained/beneath in the
earth soil. The topography and hydrology that have been described in the County
Profile are include in the environmental assets.

2. Social Assets
This asset includes all items that have been presented in Demographic Profile, the
possible spatial community that may affected by hazards, capacity of the commu-
nity to anticipate, to cope with, to resist and to recover from the impacts of the
natural hazards. The capability of the community to do so are affected by their
educational background, experience, skills, organization, networking, resources as
well as the government support.
3. Built and economic Assets
A lot of assets include in this built and economic aspects. All structures that
constructed by human are included in this assets.

3.1 Built Environment Assets

These assets include :
a. All structures either housing or all types of multi story buildings,
b. All types of bridges starting from simple to modern suspension bridges,
c. All types of hydro-power structures such as Dam, Weir or irrigation facilities
d. All types of transportation facilities (roads, high-way, bridges etc)
e. All types of ports such Airport, Harbor
f. All types of life-line structures such as Power, Gas, Transmission, Tunnel)
g. All types of water treatment structures

3.2 Economic Assets

Including in this assets are industrial factories, financial enterprises, financial
activities such as Bank, Chamber of Commerce, tax assessors, business asso-
ciations, Money Changers and all economic activities
5. Identified Hazards
Such as described before that the possible natural hazards may caused
by Atmospheric, Hydrologic, Geologic, Biologic or Technologic.
It is usual that the most possible natural hazards in particular region/area
have been recognized or identified before. The main aim in the natural
hazards assessment is to rank the hazards in such way the following
hazard mitigation can be designed.
Particularly in Indonesia, or specifically at Yogyakarta, among the possible
identified hazards are :
1. Earthquake 6. Strong Winds 11. Air pollution
2. Volcano eruption 7. Dam Failure 12. Epidemics
3. Land-slide 8. Tsunami 13. Civil Strive
4. Flood 9. Liquefaction 14. Terrorism
5. Drought 10. Fire 15. Accidents
6. Hazard Assessment
Hazard assessment is the probability of chance of an event occurring in
particular area based on geological evidence, historical data and
projections derived from theoretical analysis. Some hazard assessment
result can be mapped such as potential frequency and severity of ground
shaking, land slide etc.
Hazard assessment is the process of estimating for defined areas, the
probability of the occurrence of potentially-damaging phenomenon of
given magnitude within specific period of time
Several parameters should included in the Hazards assessment, and
these parameters will be described in the next discussions
Vulnerability (Kerentanan) Assessment :
There are many versions of vulnerability definition. Vulnerability can be
defined the degree of which the internal state will sensitive to external
threat. There also plenty aspects of vulnerability such as :
Physical Vulnerability (human, non human etc)
Technical Vulnerability (quality, reliability, maintenance etc)
Economic Vulnerability (system, insufficient assets, etc )
Social Vulnerability (education, poverty, occupation, gender, ethnic )
Political Vulnerability (policy, system, corruption, justice, conflict etc )
Environmental Vulnerability (quality, degradation, regulation, implement.)
Educational Vulnerability (system, method, approach etc)
Cultural Vulnerability (careless, value degradation, education system etc)
Institutional Vulnerability (system, lack of public service, response etc)
Human Vulnerability (uneducated, unskillful, honesty, health etc)
It needs special discussion to assess the vulnerability of any object.
7. Disaster Risk
Terdapat banyak rumusan yang berkaitan dengan Resiko bencana.
Rumusan mana yang dipakai akan bergantung pada untuk keperluan
apa analisis resiko tersebut dimaksudkan.
Diantara rumusan REsiko tersebut adalah sebagai berikut :

Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability

Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure
Hazard x Vulnerability
Risk = Capacity
Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure
Risk = Capacity
Several type de-
finitions of Risk
8. Methods of Hazard Assessment
As described before that assessment tend to has simpler, less detail and
based on simplification as compare to analysis. There are several me-
thods that have been proposed by researchers. Since those methods are
likely differ each other, then it is necessary to discuss intensively to
choose which method that really more suitable for particular hazard.
The method can be categorized to be :
1. Qualitative method
In this case the intensities of the hazard are simply represented by
qualitative expression i.e very high, high, moderate, low, very low
2. Semi Quantitative method
In this method, hazard assessment is estimated by using normaliza-
tion approach i.e hazard is represented by scale 0 - 1
5. Proses Assessment
Parameter and its Weighting Factor (WF)
5.b Hazard
1. Event History WF Indicator
1. High : 4 or more events in last 100 years
2. Moderate : 3 events in last 100 years
3. Low : 1 or no events in last 100 years

2. Probability WF
Hazard
ke- 1 3. Vulnerability WF
2
3
n
.. 4. Geographic Extent WF

5. Impacts Severity WF
Indicators Score :
1. High : 10 6. Early Warning WF
2. Moderate : 5
3. Low : 1
a. Qualitative Method
This method is proposed by BNPB though Perka BNPB No.2, Tahun
2012. The hazard is represented by high, moderate and low such as
shown in the Table
Worksheet Example :

Parameter hasil WF hasil Fakta/Data Nilai bukanlah dibuat orang

kesepakatan kesepakatan lapangan lain tetapi produk bersama