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Continuous Probability
Distributions
Section 4b
1
Discrete vs. Continuous Probability
Distributions
A series of coin flipping experiments focus on # of heads
0.35 0.3
0.3 0.25
0.25
Probability
Probability
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05 0.05
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
# of heads # of heads
0.2
As the number of coins (trials) increases,
0.15 charts become less like a staircase and
Probability
0
Ultimately, we have a probability density
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
# of heads
function for a continuous random variable.
2
The Normal Distribution
N(, )
X
Sometimes called the Gaussian Distribution or Normal curve.
It describes many real life situations
Height, weight, intelligence of people
Lifetime of car tyres, speed of machine operators, and production output.
There are many Normal distributions each with a different mean
() and a different standard deviation ().
Notation: N(, ); for instance N(10,5).
3
Properties of the Normal Distribution
N(, )
1 x 2
1
f ( x) exp 2
2
X
Is a continuous probability distribution (density function).
On the horizontal axis, any value in that interval of X can occur. In
contrast, the Binomial is a discrete distribution with only integer values.
The mean () determines the position of the distribution.
The larger the standard deviation (), wider / flatter the curve.
With information on the mean and SD, we have everything we
need to know about a specific Normally distributed variable.
4
Applying the Normal Distribution
5
Standard Normal Distribution (Z)
Standard Normal has a mean = 0 and standard deviation = 1.
N(0,1) is denoted as Z.
7
Reading the Standard Normal Table
N(0,1)
Z2
Our tables report the area in the distributions tail, the area
to the right of the Z value. This area is denoted by alpha ().
Part 1. Z = 2, corresponds to an area of 0.0228.
There is a 2.28% chance of getting a Z value equal to or
greater than 2. A relatively rare event.
Recall, the Empirical Rule? (Check Z = +/- 1.96)
8
Reading the Standard Normal Table (Z)
N(0,1) N(0,1)
9
Reading the Standard Normal Tables (Z)
N(0,1) N(0,1)
11
Mapping Onto the Standard
Normal Distribution
Questions:
1. Whereabouts in the distribution is a value of 10 located?
2. How many standard deviations is 10 away from the mean?
3. What is the Z value corresponding to a value of 22?
12
Mapping Any Normal Distribution Onto
the Standard Normal Distribution (Z)
X 10 20 N(20,5)
Z 2
5
N(0,1)
10 20 X
0 20
1 5
Z=? 0 Z
13
Mapping Any Normal Distribution Onto
the Standard Normal Distribution (Z)
X 22 20 N(20,5)
Z 0.4
5
N(0,1)
20 22 X
0 Z=?
14
Motor Vehicle Recovery Problem
A motor vehicle breakdown companys customer survey reveals
that the average time taken to reach a vehicle is 50 minutes with
a standard deviation of 15 minutes. What proportion of callouts
will take 70 minutes or longer to reach the vehicle?
Must assume times are (1) Normally distributed (2) continuously
measured. Next convert the X value into its equivalent Z value.
70 50 N(50,15)
Z 1.33
15
P(X 70) = P(Z 1.33) = 0.0918
1. If casings with a depth of 17 mm. or less are too shallow to hold the
phones components, what % of casings are currently rejected?
3. If the extra plastic needed to press the casings costs 15.00 per
thousand, and the cost of wasting each casing is 0.75, what is
the financial implication of this change to the firm? 16
Mobile Phone Manufacturing Pt.1
Q1: What proportion of casings are currently rejected?
N(18,0.8) N(0,1)
Wasted
casings 10.6%
17 18 X -1.25 0 Z
17 18
Z 0.8 1.25 P(X 17) = P(Z -1.25) = 0.1057
This is 1.25 standard deviations below the mean. The table gives
only areas to the right but because of symmetry, we use Z = +1.25.
19
The Normal Approximation to the
Binomial Distribution
Useful for determining the chance that X takes on a range of
values when n is large & probability of success (p) is near 0.5.
20
Some Bell-Shaped Binomial Distributions
n = 5, p = 0.3 n = 25, p = 0.3
0.4 0.2
0.3 0.15
0.2 0.1
0.1 0.05
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5
22
Continuity Correction Factor
To use a continuous probability distribution to calculate discrete
probabilities, we must apply a Continuity Correction factor.
The Binomial only takes on integer values {0, 1, 2 etc.}, but the
Normal can take on fractions.
23
Airline Catering Cont.
So the probability that 50 or fewer passengers 1st choice is the
vegetarian meal becomes P(X < 50.5).
Next, we transform X to its equivalent Z value:
N(60,6.48) N(0,1) 50.5 60
Z
6.48
Z 1.47
50.5 60 X -1.47 0 Z
25
Summary: Probability Distributions
Binomial and Poisson distributions are discrete distributions
which only take on whole (integer) values.