Assessing sustainability: From

Presentation by

Dr Peter Bradley

GDP to Ecological footprints

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 Objectives today
• To understand the ecological footprint;

• To look at the state of play in relation to global

environmental sustainability and wellbeing;

• To apply analysis to investigate global sustainability

challenges using the IPAT equation.

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 Footprint basics

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 Ecological Footprint
• Based on a Global Hectare - a standardised area endowed with
resources in proportion to those present in the world as a whole.
• Resources include fossil fuels, minerals, natural forest, water,
fertile land etc.
• The footprint is expressed in Global Hectares per capita (gha/pc)
• An equal distribution of resources gives 1.3 gha/cap without
marine areas, 1.8 with. Global average 2.7, UK 5.45, USA 9.6
• Findhorn (Moray, Scotland) 2.6
• Keveral Farm Community 2.4
• You can explore any area using REAP (see below)
• Also see:
http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/gfn/page/world_fo
otprint/
• What might be some of the issues with ecological footprints?

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 The unsustainable world

Source: Global Footprint Network, UN Development programme, 2006

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 How is the ecological footprint
related to GDP?

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 Decoupling

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 Direct material consumption

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 Overall OECD material
consumption

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 Overall OECD material
consumption

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 CO2 intensity of GDP across
nations: 1980 - 2006

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 Annual CO2 by world region

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 Annual CO2 by world region

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 Trends in world fossil fuel
consumption

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 Looking forward – a simple
framework
• Paul Ehrlich’s equation:

• Environmental Impact = Population x Affluence x Technological

intensity

• This could be framed in terms of, for example, ecological or

carbon footprint

• In terms of carbon, we could reframe this as:

• Global carbon emissions = population x income per capita x

carbon intensity of output
• In symbols: C = P x Ypc x C/$

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 The challenge
• The IPCC carbon (CO2e) atmospheric concentration target is 450
ppm by 2050
• To achieve this, a drastic reduction in carbon emissions of 4.9%
p.a. is required
• Future population increase is likely to be 0.7% p.a.
• Per capita income growth is likely to continue at 1.4% p.a.
• C/$ must decline by 4.9% + 0.7% + 1.4% = 7%p.a! – 10x
historic rate!
• A similar analysis can be extended to encompass the
global ecological footprint

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 Illustration of the changes
required in carbon intensities

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 5 Key materials in terms of embodied energy

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 Production versus consumption
accounts for UK GHGS

• UK carbon accounts for 1990 and 2004 from different

accounting perspectives (Druckman, Bradley and Jackson
2008)

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 Continued decoupling – a
necessary must!
• We need to do better! We need greater decoupling (reducing C/$). Can
we achieve this?

• Although resource use is a pressing issue – addressing global

environmental pressures is arguably the most pressing issue – but the
main driver for key global environmental pressures are the very high
material throughput of society.

• Key need for new business and economic models to correct this failing;

• See the prosperity without growth? debate (Jackson 2009)

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 Social progress: Redefining
prosperity
• GDP and growth as a measure of prosperity – has being increasingly coming ‘under fire’ in
resent years (See Jackson 2009 amongst others);
• Government is now staring to recognising the range of factors that effect wellbeing;
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/user-guidance/well-being/index.html

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 Human Development Index

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 Country comparisons

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 Some key issues for debate
Intragenerational equity: global per capita income growth is
largely driven by LDCs catching up DCs rather than DCs
becoming richer. There is an ethical argument that LDCs
should not be hampered in attaining equity with DCs.

So should DCs actively “down-shift”, lowering income p.c. Or

at the very least abandon growth?

With a growing population, if we move to no economic growth,

unemployment will increase. Should we share out available
work more equitably? – what is the role of technology?

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 Conclusions
It is clear that our economies are currently highly
unsustainable;

It is the scale of material flows through our economies that is

driving key global environmental pressures;

We need to move towards new forms of economy (e.g.

circular, and possibly further to the type proposed by
Jackson) in order to stay within environmental limits and
increase wellbeing.

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 Key references
• The key reading and references are within the
following very readable short book:

• Jackson, T 2009.
Prosperity without Growth – Economics for a Fin
ite Planet.
London: Earthscan. Download the SDC report
at:http://archive.ipu.org/splz-e/unga13/prosperity.pdf

• Jackson (2015). Prosperity without growth,

foundations for the economy of tomorrow. Routledge.

• http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplayd
ocumentpdf/?
doclanguage=en&cote=sg/sd(2002)1/final
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