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Statistical Models
Economic vs. Statistical Models
Economic models are designed to match
correlations between interest rates and
other economic aggregate variables
Pro: Economic (structural) models use all the
latest information available to predict interest
rate movements
Con: They require a lot of data, the equation
can be quite complex, and over longer time
periods are very inaccurate
Economic vs. Statistical Models
Statistical models are designed to match
the dynamics of interest rates and the
yield curve using past behavior.
Pro: Statistical Models require very little data
and are generally easy to calculate
Con: Statistical models rely entirely on the
past. They don’t incorporate new information.
The Yield Curve
6 5.07
4.3
4 2.94
2.12 2.61
2
0
1 yr 2 yr 5yr 10 yr 20yr
S(1) S(2) S(5) S(10) S(20)
F(0,2) F(2,2)
Forward
Rates
F(1,2)
F(1,3)
Calculating Forward Rates
Forward rates are not observed, but are implied in the
yield curve
Suppose the current annual yield on a 2 yr Treasury is
2.61% while a 1 yr Treasury pays an annual rate of
2.12%
S(2) 2.61%/yr
S(1) 2.12%/yr
S(1) 2.12%/yr
S(3) ???
S(2) ???
S(1) 2%
S(2) ???
2
For these strategies, to pay $1(1.02)(1.033) = $1(1+S(2))
the same return, the two year
1/2
spot rate would need to be 1+S(2) = ((1.02)(1.033)) =1.026
2.6%
Arithmetic vs. Geometric Averages
S(2) 2.6%
1/2
1+S(2) = ((1.02)(1.033)) =1.026 (2.6%)
2% + 3.3%
S(2) = = 2.65%
2
Spot rates are equal to the averages of the
corresponding forward rates (expectations hypothesis)
S(3) 2.73%
S(2) 2.65%
S(1) 2%
S(3)
S(2)
S(1)
5%
1/2
Annualized Return = (1.105125) = 1.0512 (5.12%) = S(2)
6.4% Path 1: (1.05)(1.057)(1.064) = 1.181 (18.1%)
5.7%
Path 2: (1.05)(1.057)(1.052) = 1.168 (16.8%)
5% 5.2%
Path 3: (1.05)(1.048)(1.052) = 1.157 (15.7%)
4.8%
1/3
Annualized Return = (1.164) = 1.0519 (5.19%) = S(3)
Future Yield Curves
6.4%
5.7%
4.8%
Random Error
Change in the term with N(0,1)
interest rate at distribution
time ‘t’
Deterministic (Non-Random)
component Random component
Vasicek
The Vasicek model is a particularly simple form:
Controls Persistence
Controls Variance
Controls Mean
Using the Vasicek Model
Choose parameter values
Choose a starting value
Generate a set of random numbers with mean 0 and
variance 1
dit it dt i dz
Heath,Jarow,Morton (HJM)
Vasicek and CIR assume a process for a single forward
rate and then use that to construct the yield curve
In this framework, the correlation between different
interest rates of different maturities in automatically one
(as is the case with any one factor model)
HJM actually model the evolution of the entire array of
forward rates
Yield Statistics
1 yr. 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
Mean 6.08 6.47 6.64 6.81
S.D. 3.01 2.88 2.84 2.81
Skewness 0.97 0.84 0.77 0.68
Exc. Kurtosis 1.10 0.69 0.48 0.16
Percent iles
1 yr. 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
1% 1.07 1.59 1.94 2.38
5% 2.05 2.52 2.72 2.90
50% 5.61 6.20 6.44 6.68
95% 12.08 12.48 12.59 12.56
99% 15.17 14.69 14.59 14.29
Yield Statistics
1 yr. 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
Mean 8.81 8.75 8.68 8.52
S.D. 3.83 3.24 2.77 1.95
Skewness -0.16 -0.16 -0.16 -0.16
Exc. Kurtosis -0.19 -0.19 -0.19 -0.19
Percent iles
1 yr. 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
1% -0.38 0.97 2.04 3.84
5% 2.33 3.27 4.00 5.22
50% 8.94 8.86 8.77 8.59
95% 14.69 13.73 12.94 11.53
99% 17.22 15.87 14.76 12.82
Percentiles
1 yr. 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
1% 2.92 3.90 4.62 5.71
5% 3.95 4.73 5.29 6.14
50% 7.71 7.73 7.73 7.70
95% 13.42 12.31 11.45 10.09
99% 17.19 15.33 13.90 11.66
Percentiles
1 yr. 3 yr. 5 yr. 10 yr.
1% 4.45 4.48 4.52 4.59
5% 4.79 4.85 4.90 4.99
50% 7.48 7.58 7.65 7.83
95% 11.57 11.74 11.92 12.38
99% 12.09 12.26 12.44 12.89