THE DECLINE

OF THE
NATIVE
David
SPEAKERS
Graddol

NUR FAZIRA
BINTI MOHD
ARIF
139793
THE PROPORTION OF NATIVE
ENGLISH SPEAKERS IN THE
WORLD POPULATION CAN BE
EXPECTED TO SHRINK OVER
THE CENTURY 1950-2050
FROM MORE THAN 8% TO
LESS THAN 5%
19th century  rivalry between English, French, German of which
is the language of international communication
 French as language of diplomacy; second half of 19 th century,
English overtook French (industrial development & the British
empire)
 English as language of global trade, trade was taking over
diplomacy as the basis of international affairs
 Alphonse de Candolle (1870)

“In England it doubles in 50 years; therefore, in a century (in 1970) it will be

124,000,000. In the United States, in Canada, in Australia, it doubles in
twentyfive; therefore it will be 736,000,000. Probable total of English-
speaking race in 1970, 860,000,000.” (Bailey, 1992, p.111)
LONG TERM GROWTH OF
ENGLISH
Originated from combinations of factors – migration
First immigrants from Britain were unlikely to speak English,
spoken various Germanic varieties (mutually intelligible)
3 tribes  Angles, Saxons, Jutes  old English emerged
AD 700 – number of English speakers = low thousands
Before European colonization of North America (17th century) –
English as L1 did not succeed the amount of 7 millions
19th century – overtook British isles until end of 19th century
“The Future of English?” – David Graddol, 1997 published by
British Council
Populations of countries using English as L1 and estimates of the
proportion for whom English is a mother tongue
Males, females, 21-age bands, 5 years intervals to 2050
Even detailed estimate is insufficient
Data needed is difficult to obtain
Why?
How do you collect such data in many countries systematically?
How do people interpret questions about language usage?
What counts as a native speaker?
Do people answer honestly?
The growth of L1 users
Gradual growth but the
proportion of world’s
population who speak
English as L1 declined
sharply
 In 1950 over 8% of the
world’s population spoke
English as their first
language
 By 2050 it will be less
than 5%
 The impact on English of
the rapid population
increase in parts of the
world where English is not
spoken as a first language
SECOND LANGUAGE
SPEAKERS
Decline in the position of English does not indicate a decline in the
importance of English
Future status of English will be less determined by the number and
the economic power of the native speakers than the trends of using
English as second language
20th century – the number of L2 speakers has grown
Crystal (1997) estimated the growth of L2 speakers
 This suggests that the number of L2 speakers
will grow over time from 235 millions to 462
millions in the next 50 years
 Indicates that the balance of L1 and L2
speakers will change, with L2 speakers
overtaking L1
ENGLISH SPEAKERS IN INDIA
Significant proportion of L2 speakers
produced a considerable amount of confusion in the description
and interpretation of data on English bilingualism
How many Indians know English? How many of these know it
fluently and use it regularly in their day-to-day affairs? What
percentage of Indian bilinguals are English-speaking? We do not
have very reliable answers to these questions.
India Today magazine (1997) conducted a survey – almost 1/3
Indians understand English, although not many are confident to
speak it (less than 20 %)
20% - 186 millions L2 speakers in India
ENGLISH IN EUROPE
Outside Uk & Irish, English is regarded as foreign language rather
than second language (overdated statement)
Europe is rapidly reinventing itself as a multilingual area
E.g : 77% of Danish adults and 75% of Swedish adults for
example, say they can take part in a conversation in English
the function of English is changing: European citizens learn and
use English in order to communicate with European nationals from
all countries and not just with native speakers. English, in other
words, is fast becoming a second language in Europe.
 Line G shows the effect of
adding the European numbers of
L2 speakers to the global figure
 This provides a grand total of
518 million L2 speakers in 1995,
rising to 880 million by 2050.
 Line H includes conservative
estimates of language shift in all
countries with significant
numbers of L2 speakers
 518 million speakers in 1995,
but projects 1.2 billion speakers
by 2050
Late 20th century – more modern projects
The constructions of new Europe = new identity, greater mobility,
new hierarchy of languages
Countries where English is spoken as L2 or foreign language – the
centrality of the native speakers is challenged
Emergence of new englishes
 “Large number of people will learn English as a foreign language in
the 21st century, they will need teachers, dictionaries and grammar
book. But will they continue to look towards the native speakers for
authoritative norm of usage?
REFERENCE
Graddol, David (1997). The Decline in Native Speakers. Retrieved
from http://www.aila.info/download/publications/review/AILA13.pdf