FORECASTING AND

WARNING
Lack of Warning Systems in the Countries Affected
by the Great Tsunami of 2004
• Indonesia had discussed setting up a tsunami warning system in 1992. The
appropriation of $2 million for the project was never approved.
• The only device that picked up the tsunami was a wave station that registered a
tsunami of less than 60 centimeters high heading south towards Australia. Within
15 minutes after the earthquake the Pacific warning center in Hawaii issued alerts
to its member countries, including Indonesia and Thailand.. Waves crashed down
on Sri Lanka two hours after they were generated by the earthquake but people
there had no warnings either.
• Predicting tsunamis is a very inexact science and scientists that were watching
the earthquake off Sumatra didn't realize that large tsunamis had been generated
until they saw video of destruction on television in Sri Lanka. The first reports
they received were that the earthquake measured 8 on the Richter scale, not 9.3,
which is more than a 50 times more powerful than an 8."
New Warning Systems and After Great Tsunami of
2004
• After the disaster governments pledged to establish a high-tech warning system in the
Indian Ocean by mid-2006 to prevent future tsunami-related disaster from occurring.
Funds and expertise on the Indian Ocean are limited. Japan and United States promised
to offer their help and expand their networks to cover the Indian Ocean.
• In March 2005, AP reported: “Experts from the United Nations and Indian Ocean
countries agreed to set up a tsunami warning system to prevent a repeat of the
catastrophe that struck on December 26, Unesco said. A fully functioning system that
detects undersea earthquakes and broadcasts warnings to coastal communities is
expected to be in place by the end of 2006, said Patricio Bernal, executive secretary of
UNESCO's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Co. [Source: AP]
• Japan and the United States are to begin providing alerts on seismic activity to the region
starting on April 1. The two countries have the world's most advanced tsunami warning
systems. Work will also begin on installing systems that can detect changes in sea level
and broadcast the information in real time to countries in potential danger. Tidal gauges
will be installed at six sites, mainly off the coasts of hard-hit Indonesia, Thailand and
Malaysia
• Indonesia---is in the initial stages of setting up a tsunami early warning
system of buoys, beach sirens and international communication lines. But it
could take two years before the system is fully operational. By the end of
2007 about 160 seismographs would be installed in ten regional stations
across Indonesia. Each station would eventually be able to process
earthquake data within five minutes of receiving it, and issue tsunami
warnings direct to local communities without having to rely on the central
Jakarta office.
• “In the event of a real tsunami, Sri said her agency also would have sent
mobile phone text messages to residents and to authorities in eight Asian
nations. Sending warnings by SMS was affordable, but would not reach
some remote regions with no mobile phone services. "We plan to place
sirens at towers along the coastal areas and local police offices"